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How to stay forward-looking in crypto investing?
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2025-01-14 10:03 6,870

Source: Daoshuo Blockchain

In an online exchange last Saturday, an audience member asked this question:

When the Bitcoin inscription ecology was emerging, Many fans, including me, have gone deep into the Inscription ecosystem, but there are still many old OG players in the Inscription ecosystem who have been stubbornly refusing to come out of the Inscription ecosystem.

Why did I feel that there might be problems with the inscription ecology last year? Then you stepped out and started a new exploration in the AI ​​agent ecosystem?

My answer at the time was:

This may be related to curiosity. I try to stay interested in new things that are happening. Whenever I discover something new, I will take a look first, and then I may have new explorations and attempts.

Going further into the specific implementation methods, I quoted Mr. Hu Shizhi’s famous saying during the communication:

“Bold assumptions, careful verification.”

This sentence was originally a method used by Mr. Hu Shizhi to describe his academic work, but I think this method is also very appropriate in the investment field.

I remember writing repeatedly in my article:

For new things and new scenes, I always like to see more of its advantages and potential.

If you use this idea to guide yourself in examining new things, you can magnify the prospects and potential that new things may have to a certain extent. It allows us to see the upper limit of the value that a new thing may produce.

With this upper limit, we have room for imagination when making investments and valuations.

This is a bold assumption.

When I estimate that a new thing has a certain amount of imagination and I am interested in it, I will participate immediately.

I have repeatedly written about my mentality after participating in previous articles:

I will look more at its problems and shortcomings, mainly looking at these few Are there any questions:

Is there any future for this track? Is the project team still doing well? Is project construction continuing to advance?

This is careful verification.

If there is a problem in one or more of these aspects, I will be vigilant; if there is no big problem, I will continue to hold it, but focus on the new direction. Explore.

In this round of development of the inscription ecology, it initially gave me a lot of room for imagination. But later, the development of the entire ecosystem has not made any major breakthroughs in terms of technology, scenarios or applications. I think the main reason is probably still limited by the limitations of Bitcoin’s own technical architecture.

So after feeling this, I stopped focusing on this ecosystem and turned to other directions. This led to my subsequent exploration of DeSci and AI agents.

Not only did I have such a turn in this round of market conditions, but I also had a similar experience in the previous cycle:

From the beginning, I focused on the DeFi ecology to later turning to focus. NThat's what FT is.

The reason for the switch is also very similar: DeFi at that time was already weak.

About mid-2021, basically no big innovations and applications can be seen in the entire DeFi ecosystem. The overall situation of each track has basically been finalized. New applications have only minor innovations at most, and those The threshold for micro-innovation is not high.

So my main energy began to turn to the exploration of new directions, and then I discovered during that exploration that overseas communities began to pursue NFT enthusiastically, so from then on my main energy was all on NFT.

Although my main experience since then has been in NFT, I have always held the DeFi tokens at that time, basically until I got them, and then I sold them together when I sold Bitcoin and Ethereum. They all sold off.

Keywords: Bitcoin
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