Written by: David Nage, Venture Capital PM ARCA

Compiled by: Shaofaye123, Foresight News

Nvidia CEO said: "The era of AI Agentics has arrived," adding that this emerging field contains a "trillion-dollar business opportunity."

Even before Jen-Hsun Huang made the above remarks, user interest in the fourth quarter of 2024 had turned to Web3 AI agents that leverage the infrastructure and offerings of Web3 and AI The framework is gradually developed.

On January 2, the market value of various Web3 AI agents has achieved considerable breakthroughs: Ai16zDAO has a market value of US$2.6 billion through Eliza's framework, and Virtuals has achieved a market value of US$2.6 billion through Eliza's framework. GAME has a market capitalization of $5 billion. Four days later, the market capitalization of ARC through RIG, Zerebro through Zerepy and other frameworks reached US$450 million and US$783 million respectively. On January 12, among the 1,210 agents in the Cookie framework, the total market value of Solana agents reached US$7.5 billion, and that of Base reached US$5.5 billion; the total market value has exceeded US$13 billion.

Given the multi-trillion dollar business opportunity and the growth in the field to date, where exactly will the market cap of Web3 AI agents be in the future? At the same time, the market share of traditional AI companies (such as OpenAI, Anthropic, Meta, etc.) also needs to be taken into consideration to analyze the possible share and development time of Web3 AI agents.

Since the birth of email, it took 35 years to reach 1 billion people with email addresses. Since its launch in November 2022, ChatGPT currently has nearly 200 million monthly active users (MAU). You can refer to the following technology adoption curve:

There are currently approximately 4.8 billion independent devices in the world email address, and ChaThe number of tGPT users accounts for about 4.2%, even though language restrictions, computing resources and other factors slowed down its growth in the early days.

Based on the current rate of approximately 14 million new users per month, if the growth accelerates to double (thanks to factors such as wider access rights, competitive drivers, etc. ), that is, reaching 28.6 million new users per month, the total number of new users in the next 24 months will reach:

28.6 million × 24 Month≈ 686M

Added to the 200 million existing users, the total number of ChatGPT users is expected to be close to 886 million by 2026.

Assume that by 2026:

Paying users: 886 M × 0.10 (conversion rate) = 88.6 million paying users

Monthly revenue: 88.6 million × 20 = $1.77 billion/month

Annual revenue: 1.77 billion × 12 = US$21.24 billion/year

If a price-to-sales ratio (P/S Ratio) of 5 times is used. Calculating the market value and using premium multiples as a reference, this would bring ChatGPT's market value to approximately US$100 billion (the latest private market valuation was US$157 billion). Huang Renxun said that AI agents may be a trillion-dollar business opportunity. Assuming that ChatGPT accounts for 15% of the total market size, this still leaves an $850 billion market space waiting to be captured.

The question then is: How much market share can Web3 AI agents capture in this?

We can apply the "bitcoin to gold ratio" to the AI ​​agent market. Currently, Bitcoin’s market capitalization accounts for approximately 10.9% of the total gold market capitalization. If Web3 AI agents could capture market share similar to Bitcoin/Golden Ratio:

$850 billion × 10.9% = 92$650 million (potential size of the Web3 AI agent market).

However, there are some factors that may indicate that the market share of Web3 AI agents may be higher:

Advantages of Web3 proxies:

Decentralized infrastructure: The infrastructure for a decentralized web already exists and can be leveraged directly.

Token incentive mechanism: Promote user and developer participation through a tokenized reward mechanism.

Smart contract automation: Efficient automated operations are achieved through smart contracts.

Built-in payment function: The payment function in the Web3 ecosystem has been seamlessly integrated and can be used directly.

Data sovereignty and ownership: Users can truly own and control their own data.

Unique capabilities of Web3 proxies:

Tokenized ownership of proxies: allows users to Tokens hold ownership of the agent.

DAO (Decentralized Autonomous Organization) integration: Seamless integration with DAO to achieve community-driven management and decision-making.

Composability with DeFi: Web3 proxies can seamlessly interface with decentralized financial applications, extending their functionality and value.

Given these unique advantages of the Web3 AI agent, its market share may be higher than the ratio of Bitcoin to gold. If we assume the following three scenarios:

Low expectation: 10.9% (bitcoin/gold ratio) = $92.65 billion

Mid estimate: 20% = $170 billion

High estimate: 30% = $255 billion

Web3 proxy marketThe potential may be far greater than this, especially if these advantages are further explored and fully utilized.

The rise of web3 AI agents represents the intersection of two transformative technologies.

ChatGPT has reached 200 million monthly active users in just two years. This rapid growth curve provides an important reference benchmark for the accelerated popularization of AI technology. . Taking the 10.9% "Bitcoin to Gold Market Capitalization Ratio" as a conservative baseline and applying it to the estimated $850 billion AI agent market opportunity (excluding ChatGPT's share), the market size of Web3 AI agents may reach $92.65 billion. . Given web3’s inherent advantages, such as decentralized infrastructure, token-based incentives, smart contract automation, and built-in payment systems, its market share is likely to be even higher. A 20% market share is a reasonable expectation, which would support a $170 billion market.

Additionally, Web3 proxies’ unique capabilities in tokenizing proxy ownership, DAO integration, and composability with DeFi enable them to fully leverage AI technology The rapid adoption trajectory and existing infrastructure of blockchain technology. Therefore, this area has the potential to be one of the biggest benefits from the intersection of AI and blockchain technologies.