Author: Jeff Lewis, Pantera Capital Hedge Fund Product Manager; Erik Lowe, Director of Content at Pantera Capital; Compiled by: 0xjs@金财经

The trend of de-dollarization is growing, that is, countries and institutions in global trade The move away from the U.S. dollar in financial transactions and financial transactions has raised concerns about the U.S. dollar’s ​​long-term dominance.

The most common measure of dollar dominance - the greenback's share of foreign exchange reserves - has been on a long-term downward trend, down 13 percentage points since 2000.

We believe this trend is about to reverse, driven, ironically, by what most U.S. policymakers and central bankers five years ago viewed as an accelerator of dollar depreciation: Blockchain Chain technology and tokenization. What was once seen as a potential destroyer of the dollar's status is now becoming its biggest enabler.

"The most ironic outcome is the most likely." - Elon Musk

Super Dollar

Public chains enhance fiat currencies The circulation allows the 5 billion smartphone users around the world to easily use legal currency and enable easy cross-border flow. The demand for tokenized fiat currencies, known as stablecoins, has created a massive industry worth $200 billion, in which the U.S. dollar dominates. Castle Island and Brevan Howard released a report that includes the chart below, showing USD collateral’s near 100% dominance among stablecoins relative to other economic categories.

Source: Castle Island and Brevan Howard Report

Top 20 fiat-backed stablecoins Among them, 16 have "USD" in their names.

Source: rwa.xyz

In the 16 years since the birth of blockchain, people’s general views on it are almost Nothing has changed. Bitcoin’s original advocates did see the cryptocurrency’s potential to challenge the U.S. dollar’s ​​dominance. In recent years, Bitcoin has been increasingly viewed as a store of wealth rather than a medium of exchange, minimizing its threat in this regard. The rise of the stablecoin/RWA phenomenon enables blockchain to deliver on Bitcoin’s original promise of providing a stable and ultimately profitable means of transactions. Far from weakening the dollar's correlation, it strengthened it.

Emerging Markets

In emerging markets, dollar-backed stablecoins are a practical alternative to holding physical cash or relying on fragile banking systems. Given a choice, merchants and citizens with unstable currencies will increasingly preferThe stability of the digital dollar. In a report by Castle Island and Brevan Howard, they published the results of a survey of existing cryptocurrency users in emerging markets. A key takeaway: dollar-denominated savings are a huge driver of emerging markets.

47% of respondents stated that their main purpose of using stablecoins is to save in U.S. dollars (this is slightly lower than the 50% who use stablecoins mainly to trade cryptocurrencies or NFTs)

69% of respondents have exchanged their national currency for stablecoins that are not used for transactions

72% of respondents expect to increase their use of stablecoins in the future

Note: Investigative Including Nigeria, Indonesia, Turkey, Brazil, and India

Whether users are small consumers or multinational corporations, the U.S. dollar is likely to crowd out others as economic agents tend to choose the safest and most liquid currencies. local currency.

In the best interests of the United States—stablecoin legislation in 2025?

Legislative momentum is building, with Trump expected to pass stablecoin-focused regulations. There is bipartisan support for Patrick McHenry’s stablecoin bill, which was originally proposed in 2023 and was recently introduced in the House of Representatives by Rep. Maxine Waters. Stablecoin legislation has long been viewed as the first step toward achieving regulatory clarity in the United States. We believe we will see meaningful progress in 2025, especially as framers increasingly recognize the strategic role of stablecoins in expanding the U.S. dollar’s ​​influence.

Stablecoins are in the best interest of the United States because they will increase the proportion of transactions denominated in U.S. dollars and create demand for U.S. Treasury collateral.

A country with $37 trillion in outstanding debt needs distribution of fiat currency, and cryptocurrencies can provide this distribution.

Stablecoins Vs. CBDC

For the sake of clarity, fiat-backed stablecoins and central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) are two similar but fundamentally different technologies and should not be conflated.

JPMorgan published a report in October on the growing trend toward de-dollarization. One of the potential drivers they highlighted was the push to automate payments through new technologies. They mentioned projects such as mBridge, a multi-central bank digital currency initiative, as potential alternatives to U.S. dollar transactions.

While emerging payment systems such as foreign CBDCs further intensify pressure to de-dollarize, we believe that the booming market for USD-backed stablecoins goes against this narrative. We believe that stablecoins built on decentralized, permissionless blockchains will be preferred as they offer better privacy, censorship resistance, and cross-platform interoperability.

Set demand for U.S. Treasuries through tokenized products

$120 billion in stablecoin collateral direct investments, according to U.S. TreasuryFor U.S. Treasuries, this results in increased demand for short-term securities. In addition to stablecoins, direct tokenization of U.S. Treasuries is also a growing trend. Companies such as BlackRock's Securitize, Franklin Templeton, Hashnote and Pantera portfolio company Ondo all control this $4 billion market.

Ondo offers two core products in this space:

USDY (USD Yield Token): a token collateralized by short-term U.S. Treasuries and bank deposits Monetized notes provide non-U.S. investors with stable, high-quality returns.

OUSG (Ondo Short-Term U.S. Treasury Securities): Provides liquidity exposure to short-term U.S. Treasury securities, allowing qualified purchasers to mint and redeem immediately.

Products such as USDY provide people living overseas with easier access to U.S. dollars and Treasury bonds than traditional channels.

A new era dominated by the US dollar

Far from weakening the hegemony of the US dollar, blockchain technology has created a digital infrastructure that consolidates the hegemony of the US dollar. The ability to tokenize and mobilize U.S. dollar assets globally keeps the U.S. dollar indispensable, even as geopolitical and technological forces drive de-dollarization pressures. As JPMorgan noted in its report, the structural factors supporting the dollar’s ​​dominance — deep capital markets, rule of law and institutional transparency — remain unparalleled. Stablecoins extend these advantages to a digital, borderless environment.

The U.S. dollar was once seen as the weak side in the face of blockchain innovation, but now it has become its biggest beneficiary. Blockchain’s “killer app” may well be the dollar itself, demonstrating how the technology can transform traditional power structures while strengthening them. With the emergence of supportive regulatory frameworks and growing demand for tokenized assets, the U.S. dollar’s ​​move on-chain is likely to solidify its position as a cornerstone of global finance. Regardless of whether U.S. regulators or lawmakers are Democrats or Republicans, they will all agree that any force supporting demand for U.S. Treasuries is a force that should be leveraged, not resisted, making meaningful regulatory progress all but a fait accompli.