Written by: Ignas, DeFi Research Compiled by: Glendon, Techub News

"By 2025, Bitcoin ( BTC) will hit $250,000 and Ethereum (ETH) will hit $12,000."

This is a prediction I just made up and it might come to pass. True, maybe not.

In fact, this is true for most predictions. While some predictions are based on some data, VanEck, for example, offers predictions that make sense, while Cathie Wood (CEO of ARK Invest) is known for making bold predictions with eye-popping numbers. She predicts Bitcoin will reach $500,000 by 2026 and $1 million by 2030. As for Michael Saylor, he even predicted that the price of Bitcoin will reach $13 million by 2045.

Here's a summary of DLNews' 2024 forecasts:

Source: DLNews

But how helpful can price predictions really be? In fact, apart from strengthening your belief in holding a position and continuing to hold it (HODL), it does not provide you with much actionable insights.

In response, I propose a different thinking framework that may make you a better investor, not only for 2025 but also for in the future.

"What important truths few people agree with you?" This is a challenging question posed by Peter Thiel , because it’s often easier for us to conform to the status quo than to think for ourselves.

Matti once introduced a framework of questions when evaluating Zee Prime Capital's investment: "If you listen to the current discussion and narrative, what do you think is obvious? The truth, what are the obvious lies and what are the unobvious truths?, and non-obvious lies? ”

In the last cycle, examples of obvious truths are:

Higher Interest rates are bad for cryptocurrencies

Wars are bad for cryptocurrencies

And there are some obvious ones Lie:

Cryptocurrency Super Cycle

Bitcoin is an inflation hedge

(3,3) Cooperation is sustainable and can exist in the long term

Obvious truth narratives are easy to identify, Matti Explains: “The distinction between the obvious and the obscure can be reframed as popular vs. unpopular, or knowable vs. unknowable based on available data. Uncovering unobvious truth narratives requires unique insights, and The obvious truth can be seen at a glance, but it is still not 100% certain, because nothing is absolute, and the boundaries between them are not necessarily binary, but may be more scalar. ”

As he says, non-obvious truth and lie narratives are harder to identify, but they provide insight into what's to come, especially when these narratives become obvious, and the crowds swarm with FOMO (Fear of missing out) starts to set in.

And we hope to be at the starting point of FOMO.

In the last cycle, some less obvious truth narratives:

UST Collapse is just a matter of time

FTX is a criminal organization

L2s leads to liquidity fragmentation< /p>

And the non-obvious lying narrative:

SOL is dead

The game is Cryptocurrency natural product market contractPMF (PMF)

The new L1 transaction has ended

The following is from Matti's blog post Some examples of Ideas and narratives that are well-known or not viewed favorably by many people.”

I identify RWA, DeFi options, Soulbound Tokens (SBTs), and Instadapp (INST) as potential counter-narrative trading opportunities. While DeFi options and SBTs didn’t make much headway, RWA and INST performed quite well.

The key here is still timing. It took INST a year and a half to post significant gains.

In hindsight, it is easy to identify these truths and lies, but it is difficult to predict the future.

Next, I will share some truth and lies narratives about the current cycle.

First, start with the parts that I think are obvious, and then move on to the challenging non-obvious parts. To gain more insights, I also asked some people in the cryptocurrency industry for their opinions.

Here is a brief framework for 2025.

Obvious truth narrative

Facts or results that are widely accepted and based on observable evidence.

AI x Crypto is here to stay

Artificial intelligence has dominated the crypto community (CT) over the past year and may continue into 2025 .

Cryptocurrency enthusiasts are eager to acquire AI tokens, but there are not many to choose from, with TAO being the top choice.

But with the proliferation of AI agents, thisEverything has changed. We now have a number of crypto-native AI agents that publish content on X or transact on platforms like Polymarket, as well as tools to help launch these AI agents.

Therefore, I believe that AI and Crypto will coexist for a long time. This is an obvious truth.

But this does not mean that AI agent tokens will continue to soar. The current AI agents are very simple (such as AIXBT just scan data and other people's opinions to re- Express). And that 2025 will be the AI ​​agent super cycle is also a blatant lie.

However, bubbles will eventually inspire innovation, and just as DeFi continues to mature after the DeFi bubble bursts, AI agents are here to stay.

Spot ETFs Bullish

I'm still surprised at how many people think ETFs are bearish. Some people believe that "BTC in ETFs is part of the packaging of traditional finance (TradFi), and it is also a 'Trojan horse' that will destroy Bitcoin from the inside."

For Ethereum, the ETF may provide stronger bullish momentum than all the ETH locked in L2, as TradFi allocates a portion of its cryptocurrency portfolio to Bitcoin and Ethereum.

The numbers will continue to rise.

Stablecoins are the killer application/product-market fit point for cryptocurrencies

This is Stacy Muur’s insight carried over from the previous cycle.

In this cycle, stablecoins may eventually expand beyond cryptocurrency trading into the fintech space.

PayPal has launched a stablecoin PYUSD, Revolut is launching its own stablecoin, and even Visa may launch a stablecoin, although this may have an impact on its profit margins Influence.

Many projects perform better before TGE

This view was also put forward by Stacy Muur.

"At this point, my thought is that 90% of protocols have better overall metrics before issuing a token (HYPE and F tokens are exceptions). Therefore, before the token is launched, the product is better than after TGE 'Popular'."

DeFi Made Here agrees with this, as he said: "9/10 chains/projects are garbage and not organic. Use, a falsehood supported only by private transactions TVL. ”

I share this opinion to remind everyone that we are in a very niche industry. Just like venture capital (VC), we cannot expect all investments to generate huge returns.

The fact is that most coins do not survive for long and tend to trend downward. Our mission is to find great tokens that are game-changing.

Obviously false narrative that airdrops are dead

Low-circulation, high-FDV (fully diluted valuation) token issuances have caused huge damage, making investment in those that are themselves very Excellent deals become unworthy.

But I am still optimistic about airdrops in 2025, because people's expectations have returned to reality and the airdrop craze has become outdated.

It is foreseeable that Hyperliquid may not be the last large-scale airdrop in this cycle. And, now is not the time to stop clicking buttons.

Crypto projects need VC backing to succeed

This is another lesson we learned from low-circulation, high-FDV token issuances. The “moat” of venture capital is shrinking year by year. With the rise of public and private equity platforms like Echo and Legion, projects can now raise funds from a diverse pool of crypto-native investors.

Be aware that many VC firms offer little to no help beyond funding and a company logo on a presentation. Conversely, engaging crypto-native investors will give them a stronger stake in the success of their investments.

Of course, some lesser-known projects will still rely on venture capital funding. But finding “100 times the chance of success” is no longer the exclusive right of VCs.

Bullish.

Super cycles such as Memecoin and AI agents

There is a word that should always keep you on guard: "super cycle".

The Memecoin supercycle was all the rage until older coins including some "dead" coins like XRP and Litecoin made a comeback.

Nowadays, AI agents have become a hot topic. But this narrative will eventually lose its appeal relative to newer narratives that have not yet captured everyone’s attention. Subsequently, people’s attention will shift to the new narrative...

Retail investors like Memecoin the most

This view comes from CryptoKoryo, who is good at tracking narrative price performance and rotation. His conclusion is simple: “The rotation always happens after everyone is in.” In short, every time someone says “project x, y, z (like SOL, TAO, HYPE, etc.) will dominate this cycle ”, it’s probably a lie.

Also, retail investors are no longer so stupid now: they can use Phantom wallet and Find new narratives on Reddit, TikTok, and everywhere else.

In fact, a less obvious truth is that crypto-native users may end up buying tokens from TikTok rather than the crypto community.

DAO is decentralized, efficient, "smart" and transparent

In 2024, I started a new journey: becoming a representative of multiple DAOs, including Aave, Lido, Instadapp, Arbitrum, Paraswap and Uniswap.

The turning point was during the Compound DAO attack, where the attackers managed to pass a vote that distributed $24 million worth of COMP tokens.

The problem is that the DAO is too indifferent and token holders do not understand the vote at all. It's really sad.

Communicate with Doo by Stablelabs, I got some insights, and his insights also confirmed the skeptical views of many people:

DAO is not truly decentralized, efficient, and transparent. Nor is it run by "smart money"; (Techub News notes, "smart money" refers to funds that have foresight and quick response capabilities in the field of financial investment.)

DAO Funds are limited and may go bankrupt;

Most DAOs are usually still led by founders or core teams and are based on interpersonal relationships;

DAO can be protectionist or have protectionist tendencies.

Take Uniswap DAO as an example, it has no idea that Unichain is being developed.

Why is this important? We cannot continue to deceive ourselves and the community; the current DAO model is unsustainable and needs to be turned upside down. Whoever can fundamentally improve the DAO model will be able to create a new successful business.

Unobvious truth narratives

Insights that are not easily perceived or widely recognized and require deeper understanding or unique analysis.

Bitcoin is a hedge against macroeconomic uncertainty

BlackRock's head of cryptocurrency does not endorse those who "firmly believe that Bitcoin is A risk asset and trades based on unemployment rate, non-farm payrolls or ISM manufacturing index data” Cryptocurrency commentator/researcher.

Because Bitcoin cannot be both digital gold and a high-risk asset at the same time.

BlackRock claimed in its 2024 study that Bitcoin is a unique diversified asset with the following characteristics:

Bitcoin's high volatility makes it a "risk asset." However, most of the risks and potential reward drivers faced by Bitcoin are fundamentally different from traditional "risk assets," making it unfit for most traditional financial frameworks - including the "risk appetite" adopted by some macro commentators ( risk-on) and "risk-aversion" (risk-off) Framework;

Bitcoin, as a scarce, non-sovereign, decentralized global asset, has caused some investors to Consider it a hedging option when some geopolitical turmoil occurs.

In the long term, Bitcoin’s adoption trajectory is likely to be affected by the level of concerns about global monetary stability, geopolitical stability, U.S. fiscal sustainability, and U.S. stability . This is in contrast to traditional "risk assets" which typically have an inverse relationship with these factors.

Bitcoin sometimes sells off at the start of major macro events. However, chaos, turmoil, and potential currency printing are good for Bitcoin.

The danger is that commentators continue to paint Bitcoin as a high-risk asset, which It will confuse those in the traditional financial industry who regard Bitcoin as digital gold.

The utility of the token is not required

Nearly every cryptocurrency project will issue a token at some point.

Think about it: Which DeFi protocol cannot function without a token?

Uniswap runs perfectly without UNI, Aave, Maker, Fluid, Ethena... all these protocols can run without tokens.

However, they all have tokens, why? Is it for governance? Community? Or fundraising…

I actually answered this question in a 2022 post.

A few years ago, issuing a token did require some proof of utility, but not now Not needed anymore.

Memecoins have changed this perception to the greatest extent, and the ARKM token launched by Arkham also played a key role.

If analytics platforms can launch tokens, then any crypto projectIt’s all possible: wallets, extensions, marketing agencies…

With Nansen and Kaito This trend will continue with future token issuances, but 2025 will definitely be even crazier. Anything that attracts attention can be tokenized. Utility isn't important, it's attention, community, and users that matter.

Actually, this is an insight Aylo shared with me, that attention and price are related.

My advice for DeFi protocols therefore echoes this: click the button, sign up for any analytics tool that is gaining traction, share your recommendations, and avoid “why Discussion on “need tokens”.

It requires a token because that makes us (early users and founders) rich.

DeFi is more centralized than CeFi

This is a poignant point made by Defi Made Here.

The centralization here does not refer to the decentralization or self-hosting of the blockchain.

As DMH puts it, "Few protocols own the majority of TVLs, and few risk providers work on the same project and have a unique focus on each project." Have vested interests, etc. ”

The following is an unedited quote:

JPMorgan Chase's market share in the United States is about 12%, while Aave has 50%-70% market share;

L2s is a multi-billion-scale unregulated multi-signature wallet;

Tether is a multi-signature wallet with a scale of hundreds of billions;

Chainlink almost completely controls all value in DeFi;

Different agreements pay for the same risk assessment team, and there is a clear conflict of interest between them.

The argument therefore is that business and TVL are more concentrated in DeFi than in CeFi. As the USDC collapse shows, reliance on a few players can be damaging to DeFi.

Having said that, I am still optimistic about DeFi. As the market matures, more participants will enter the industry, and the risks will also increase. Decrease over time

Tether USDT. USDT’s dominance is coming to an end

The landscape of the cryptocurrency stablecoin market is changing as new players and use cases emerge. Currently, USDT’s dominance is coming to an end. Tether leads the way in terms of trading and collateral

However, the future trend will be. Focus on two fast-growing areas: savings products and payments. style="text-align: left;">TradFi is entering the on-chain savings market, while fintech and Web2 incumbents are moving into cryptocurrency payments (Visa will become a major player if it launches a stablecoin).

While these categories are relatively small today, they could drive more than $50 billion in new capital inflows over the next two years (according to Ethena forecasts). and Sky already lead the way in savings, while sUSDe will also benefit from the integration of traditional finance

On the payments side, the TON ecosystem is leveraging Telegram's network to build seamless crypto-native solutions.

p>

It can be seen that the battle for stablecoins is changing from dominance of transactions and stores of value (SoV) to innovations in savings and payments, marking the beginning of a new era of cryptocurrency.

On top of that, crypto regulations like MiCA are driving Tether out of the EU and other markets.

Unobvious Lie Narrative Fee Switching Is Good for Token Prices

Token fee switching is often the first request from token holders. However, revenue sharing is not a panacea for token price issues;One of the bullish narratives for the currency.

Do you still remember the "realyield" narrative two years ago?

In fact, due to the unusually high revenue/market cap ratio of cryptocurrencies, most protocols The revenue generated is not enough to cause the token price to rise significantly.

I don't think the fee conversion will affect the token's growth; but it sets a floor for the minimum trading price of the token. If the revenue sharing is effective and the revenue is substantial, then at some point the token will become worth buying.

The bull market will last a year and is expected to end in the fourth quarter

I agree with this view. But this one is more of a prediction than a fact/lie.

The reason I mention this is because the crypto community generally believes that 2025 will be the year to sell, most likely early in the fourth quarter.

But can things really be that simple?

Note that in 2023, the general consensus was that Ethereum would outperform Bitcoin in 2024 and Solana would die.

But this is not the case. Therefore, as with most consensus trades, I believe there will be factors that disrupt the bull cycle, possibly delaying or prolonging it.

Ethereum L2 user experience/interface fragmentation will persist

I believe that Ethereum's poor performance is largely due to its inferior user experience to Solana. The problem is obvious.

Ethereum is slower and more expensive than Solana

Increased L2 volume leads to liquidity and user experience fragmentation

Unlike building on unified Solana, developers must choose a specific L2 for their application to succeed

< p style="text-align: left;">This poor user experience is very obvious if you use Metamask. Fortunately, user experience/interface (UX/UI) is improving day by day.

OP hyperchain and similar alliances such as Polygon and zkSync are improving the back-end user experience . In addition, if Delphi Digital’s predictions about the “Fat Wallet” theory hold true, the user experience problem may be solved as early as 2025.

The "Fat Wallet" theory solves Ethereum L2 user experience problems by positioning wallets as the key to solving inefficiency problems.

As protocols and applications slim down, wallets become front-end aggregators and Interactions such as cross-chain and liquidity management can be simplified through chain abstraction.

By integrating Payments for Order Flow (PFOF) and providing Distribution as a Service (DaaS), wallets can also simplify access to DApps, reduce friction, and improve transactions implement.

In addition, wallets leverage their close connection with users to create more intuitive, A more seamless experience solves high switching costs and establishes a smoother L2 onboarding process, ultimately driving user adoption.

Currently, with the rise of AI agents, user experience is improved as agents can perform all necessary cross-chain operations for humans.

NFTs are dead

This is an interesting point. Some feel it is patently wrong, while others feel it is correct. That's why I put it in the "unobvious lie" category.

Currently, "NFT is dead" seems to be an obvious lie due to the PENGU airdrop and its significant impact on the entire NFT field. But we must be clear that, with a few exceptions, NFTs have been losing money over the past year.

However, I am looking aheadThe next big thing in NFTs.

In my opinion, 2024 is the year when Bitcoin Ordinals and PENGU will rise at the same time. I expect NFT to surpass avatars and cultural icons. category.

Perhaps NFTs can evolve in the age of AI, providing indisputable proof that a photo is original and not created or modified by AI.

To be sure, NFTs feel like they are stagnant, but that is not the case.

We need to build something revolutionary.

What do you think are the unobvious truths and lies?

You may disagree with me, and that's fine! This means you have the opportunity to make money from narratives that are not yet consensus, but will soon be.

Builders need to look beyond the "obvious" to the less obvious truths to build lasting and meaningful projects. Buzzwords and popular narratives (such as “hot topics” in the crypto space) often lead to superficial efforts from builders without real innovation.

Matti gives great advice in his blog post.

For founders:

Align efforts with genuine curiosity and first principles Thinking together.

Avoid basing projects solely on popular trends or narratives.

For most investors:

Evaluating a founder’s vision is based on what is apparent Truth narrative is still based on deeper and unique insights.

Breakthrough products and companies are more likely to emerge based on less obvious truth narratives.

To sum up, having the ability to distinguish between obvious/non-obvious facts and lies will allow investors to support ideas that have real potential, not justIt's just hype.