Source: Daoshuo Blockchain

At the end of the article these days, readers mentioned a very common question:

What mentality should be used to evaluate the project if it is missed at the earliest stage? Is it still worth participating?

An important concept mentioned in this question is "early days".

But in my experience, judging whether a project is still in its early stages is very subjective to a large extent, and it is difficult to have an objective standard.

It is possible that the thing we think we discovered is not new at all, but in fact most people in the ecosystem have not been exposed to it at all; it is also possible that the thing we think is new is not new to other things in the ecosystem. People have long been used to it.

If there is a general standard that can be used as a reference, then my reference standard is how often Twitter and related media mention this track or related projects?

But what is "more" and "not much" is a matter of personal experience. After experiencing several more bull markets in the crypto ecosystem, investors may be able to roughly establish a perceptual judgment psychologically.

In addition, you can also roughly refer to the total circulating market value (FDV) of a new project's tokens, and compare its FDV with the market value of the tokens of more mature projects in the current ecosystem.

For example, the FDV of the current 100th-ranked token is US$1.3 billion. If the FDV of a token is less than US$1 billion, then I think it is most likely still in the stage of a small bubble.

For a project like this, I don’t think price is a factor that I should worry about.

If we can’t find such a project according to the above standards, if we miss it, we will miss it. There is nothing to regret--even if we watch the project that we have seen but let go in the future. Don't get emotional even when you are high. You can summarize and reflect on whether you can adjust your judgment standards or learn any lessons in order to fight again. There will definitely be opportunities in the future.

If we are lucky and find such a project, next, what I will focus on is not the price but the fundamentals of the project: such as track, team, construction, etc.

But at this time we are often likely to encounter another embarrassing situation: the project information is pitiful, or even just a blank piece of paper.

At this time, I think what is needed most is courage--to take out assets that can be completely sacrificed and boldly participate according to one's own ideas.

For example, when I first saw the Virtuals platform, this was the situation.

At that time, there was no exclusive interview with Project Lianchuang, and I couldn’t remember exactly where I saw the information about this platform, so I took a curious look at the platform.

After reading it, what I can probably understand is that it uses a method similar to ICO to finance AI agents, but other than that, I don’t have a deeper understanding.

On the Virtuals platform at that time, it ranked among the top threeThere are three AI agents supported by the project: LUNA, GAME and CONVO. Then there are about a hundred or two hundred copycat agents left.

I once said in an article that I have no feelings about LUNA.

As for GAME, when I read its introduction, I only had the impression that it was an agent related to games, but there were no details on what this agent could do, let alone a detailed introduction.

As for CONVO, I don’t understand it very well. I seem to think it is something related to the experience of using AI agents, but I can’t find any more information about what it is used for.

I looked at a few of the remaining copycat proxies and found them to be no different from GPT. I guess they were just covered in a flashy coat.

So in this situation, what do I think?

The first thing I think about is: VIRTUAL is a platform currency. Regardless of whether it succeeds or not, other agents have to rely on it to list coins, so they have to buy it no matter what.

What about the others?

It is impossible for me to trust those counterfeit goods without any background, so I can only choose agents supported by those three platforms.

This is my logic.

I do not have any advanced knowledge, any inside information, nor any foresight.

About the end of December, the GAME project team suddenly reported that they had developed an AI agent framework that competed with ELIZA. Since then, the project tokens have skyrocketed.

But how could I know this when I buy GAME?

It is completely the result of bold participation.