Throughout December 2024, adjustment will undoubtedly be the main tone of the market. Although the maximum decline of Bitcoin from its high level was only 15%, the decline of many altcoins has been cut in half, and even the entire gains of this bull market of some altcoins have been completely wiped out. According to data from CoinMarketCap, in this round of adjustments, the median maximum decline for the top 100 currencies by market capitalization was 44%. Such a sharp decline has only occurred in the past five years during the 5.19 and 3.12 crashes. Therefore, this adjustment also caused the market to suffer a heavy blow to altcoins. So, are there still opportunities in the altcoin market?

On this issue, the author’s point of view is very clear: the altcoin market is not over.

First of all, from a transaction level, the trend of capital flows to altcoins has been very obvious, mainly manifested in the following two aspects: 1. The current market situation of altcoins The holdings have experienced explosive growth, and the growth rate far exceeds that of Bitcoin. Although the massive liquidation in December caused the size of open interest to drop by nearly $10 billion, the current size of open interest is still about 40% higher than the peak of the Mavericks market in March 2024. This reflects that altcoins are still the main direction of the capital game; 2. Although the scale of altcoins has exceeded that of March 2024, and has even reached the highest level in the past three years, the weighted average funding rate of altcoins in this round of market peaks Still well below March 2024. This shows that the bullish sentiment in the market is still in a state of mild fermentation.

Secondly , on the level, although Trump’s plan to include Bitcoin in reserves faces greater challenges, the possibility of it benefiting the family and allies is still high. In the past month, the DeFi protocol founded by the Trump family has purchased a large number of tokens such as ETH, LINK, AAVE, ENA, and ONDO. These investments are mainly betting on two major benefits: First, Trump nominates cryptocurrency supporter Paul S. Atkins as SEC chairman, thereby promoting the lifting of Ethereum ETF pledge restrictions; second, Trump nominates David Sacks, a supporter of asset tokenization. Served as the White House Cryptocurrency Director, responsible for drafting the legal framework for cryptocurrency and providing legal support for the advancement of asset tokenization.

In addition, during Trump’s campaign, both Musk and the founder of XRP provided financial and resource support. Therefore, it is widely expected that After Trump is elected, DOGE is expected to become the new winnerA batch of crypto ETF projects have been approved, and the legal dispute between XRP and the SEC will soon be resolved. In short, as a series of benefits gradually come to fruition, new trading opportunities in the crypto market will also arise. ‍‍

In fact, since Bitcoin’s market capitalization ratio peaked at 60% and fell back, the daily trading ratio of altcoins (excluding the top ten by market capitalization) has been maintained for a long time. Above 40%, it is always in a dominant position. The reason why investors feel that the altcoin market is sluggish is because the daily trading volume has plummeted from US$300 billion to US$150 billion, which has caused the market to return to a situation of too many people and too little food. Under the market conditions of reducing volume games, funds are mainly moving in two directions to break through: first, focusing on currencies with a strong trend of grouping, such as SUI, AAVE, XRP, etc.; second, gathering together to play games on hot topics, such as AI Agent, DeSci , RWA, etc.

Since the market bottomed out on December 20, AI Agent has undoubtedly become the hottest topic in the market. The most typical phenomenon is that almost half of the top ten currencies on CoinMarketCap's rising list are related to AI Agent. AI Agent's two star projects, Ai16z and Virtual, have undoubtedly become one of the tokens with the strongest money-attracting capabilities in December 2024. Since funds have been deeply involved in this field, the market for AI Agent is likely to continue for several months. For investors, if they want to gain considerable excess returns, they still need to keep up with market hot spots. However, the author does not think that chasing Ai16z and Virtual is the best choice to participate in AI Agent currently. On the contrary, second-tier projects that have been fully adjusted, such as ACT, GOAT, GRASS, etc., are more likely to breed transactional opportunities.

In the operation of altcoins, what types of trading opportunities investors focus on mainly depend on personal risk preferences and profit expectations.

For prudent investors, I personally believe that the platform coins of the leading exchanges still have a high margin of safety. After all, the current valuation and growth are still Very nice. At the same time, the callback also provides good opportunities to build positions for the leaders in most subdivisions, such as UNI, LINK, AAVE, etc. in the DeFi sector.

For speculators who are keen on emotional gaming, AI Agent and RWA are undoubtedly the directions with higher odds. The logic of the former has been analyzed before, and the latter has shown signs of accelerating after Trump won the election. First of all, the appointment of Sacks, the White House encryption director, has provided strong support for asset tokenization; secondly, BlackRock, Franklin DungeonInstitutions such as Tether, Visa, etc. have all planned to tokenize assets. As a16z’s Director Brian Quintenz, Director of Regulation Michele Korver and General Counsel Miles Jennings wrote in a joint article: Channels for constructive engagement with regulators and legislators are now open. As the regulatory system gradually becomes clearer, it has become possible for project parties to explore blockchain services and issue coins.