BTC and the cryptocurrency market are generally bullish. The era of AI+MEME craze has arrived. Trump officially came to power on January 20, which deserves special attention.

1. BTC and the cryptocurrency market are generally bullish, but currently the overall market is in shock and consolidation, and we need to wait for the advancement of new good news. On January 20, Trump General Secretary Xi Jinping's formal coming to power deserves special attention.

2. Current data shows that the copycat season has not yet officially arrived, and the current trend is still concentrated on BTC. As of December 31, BTC has risen by 106% this year. ETH rose 60.1% and SOL rose 84.6%.

3. The future market of AI+Meme is very broad. There is a high probability that it will start from Meme and cover the entire Web3 market with AI through the issuance of AI Agent+Token. .

4. The RWA track is also worthy of attention. Both Binance and Coinbase have expressed their optimistic views on RWA.

Market Overview

1.1 FutureMoney Group DePIN Index

FutureMoney Group DePIN Index is a DePIN high-quality portfolio token index constructed by FutureMoney, which selects the 24 most representative DePIN projects. Compared with the last report, the Index continued to correct this time, falling from the previous 50.26 to 44.48, a decrease of 11.5%. The reason is that the main funds in the market are further leaving the market from cryptocurrencies. The decline of BTC has not brought about the arrival of the altcoin season. Most of the funds in the market choose to leave the market directly or switch to stablecoins to wait and see.

1.2 Encrypted market data

1.2.1 Encrypted data indicators

Total market capitalization of cryptocurrency:

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The current total cryptocurrency market value is 3.28 trillion US dollars, which is a decrease of 9.8% compared with 3.64 trillion US dollars in the first half of December. This is mainly due to the fact that BTC experienced the largest decline since October 25. BTC has experienced the largest decline since October 25. highest in history It continued to fall to US$108,000, with a single-week decline of nearly 15%. After that, although BTC rebounded slightly, bulls did not organize an effective counterattack to bring the price back to US$100,000, which instead caused a further decline in market sentiment.

BTC index has rebounded slightly

The Bitcoin Dominance Index (BTC.D) measures Bitcoin’s market capitalization as a proportion of the entire cryptocurrency market and is an important indicator for assessing market sentiment and investor preferences. When BTC.D rises, it usually indicates investment Investors are more inclined to hold Bitcoin, possibly out of concerns about market risks and seeking more stable investment targets. On the contrary, the decline in BTC. High risk appetite

In the past 15 days, the Bitcoin (BTC) Dominance Index has experienced some volatility. As of December 30, 2024, Bitcoin’s dominance is approximately 56.6%, compared to There was a slight increase from 56% at the beginning of the month

Cryptocurrency Alt Quarter Index ( Altcoin Season Index) is a real-time indicator used to determine whether the current cryptocurrency market is in an altcoin-dominated season. When the index is in the 0-50 range, the smaller the number, the more it is considered a BTC season. When the index is in the 50-100 range, the higher the number. The greater the likelihood of the arrival of the altcoin season

The current Altcoin Season Index is 47, and the previous value was 46;

The highest point of the year was 97 on November 4. After that, BTC entered a rapid rise channel, rising rapidly from US$67,000;

Year The lowest point was 13 on September 3, which was the V-bottom of BTC’s year-round rise and fall trend. After that, BTC began to enter the upward channel.

1.2.2 ETF Index

BTC ETF:

Every 2024 has been a historic year for cryptocurrencies, starting with the official approval of the US Bitcoin Spot ETF in January. US$100 million has been invested in the cryptocurrency field; industry investment reached US$13.7 billion, an increase of 28% from US$10.7 billion in 2023, but still far behind the US$33.3 billion in 2022 and US$29 billion in 2021. < /p>

As of 2024.12.30. Current BTC The total market value of the ETF market is US$108.911 billion, with a total transaction volume of US$3.37 billion. In the past seven days, BTC ETF has seen a net outflow of US$388 million;

Among them, Ryder iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT): On December 19, IBIT experienced a record single-day net outflow of $188.7 million;

Fidelity Bitcoin ETF (FBTC): During the same period, FBTC had net outflows of approximately $83.16 million;

Grayscale Bitcoin Trust ( GBTC): On December 19, GBTC’s capital outflow was approximately US$208.6 million;

ETH ETF:

As of December 30, 2024, the overall net inflow of ETH ETF was US$432 million. Among them:

BlackRock iShares Ethereum Trust (ETHA): On December 5, ETHA recorded the largest single-day capital inflow, amounting to US$131 million;

Bitwise Ethereum ETF (ETHW): On the same day, ETHW recorded an inflow of approximately US$16.98 million;

Grayscale Ethereum Mini Trust (ETH): On the same day, ETH recorded an inflow of approximately US$12.71 million;

VanEck Ethereum ETF (ETHV): On the same day, ETHV recorded an inflow of approximately US$6.02 million.

1.3 CPI and other data and market reaction Judgment on the market

The U.S. consumer confidence index remains unchanged from the previous value

The initial value of the University of Michigan's consumer confidence index in the United States in December was 74, equal to the previous value and expectations, but the Conference Board's consumer confidence index in December was 104.7, much lower than the expected 113 and the previous value of 111.7. Let's look at two more The key factor affecting interest rates is that the initial one-year inflation rate in the United States in December is expected to be 2.8%, lower than the expected and previous value of 2.90%; the number of initial jobless claims in the week to December 21 219,000, lower than the expected 224,000 and the previous value of 220,000. Based on the hawkish interest rate cut of 25BP at the Federal Reserve’s November interest rate meeting, Hammack voted in favor of not cutting interest rates; and Powell said that it is at or near the stage of slowing down interest rates. The future U.S. economic expectations are: an increase in economic prospects and interest rate expectations, and a halving of interest rate expectations next year; most officials believe that inflation risks tend to be upward.

Global inflation has fallen, and U.S. CPI has dropped to 2.5%

Summary of the global economy by the end of 2024: Growth is generally stable, inflation has fallen, Already implemented. The IMF predicts that the global economy will grow by 3.5% in 2024, mainly driven by the manufacturing industry (PMI average in the first half of the year is 50.5%) and the service industry (the average in the second half of the year is 53.3%). Inflation will be led by the United States and Europe. After falling rapidly, the US CPI has dropped to around 2.5%, and the Eurozone HICO has dropped to around 2%. In order to cope with the previous high inflation, most central banks around the world have successively turned to easing. Except for Japan, the United States and Europe have begun active interest rate reduction cycles.

1.4 Macro. Key data nodes

The macro data nodes that need attention next week include:

1. The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) released on January 14, 2025;

2. The U.S. Producer Price Index released on January 15, 2025 ( PPI)

In addition, on January 20, the United StatesThe official handover of the President, Trump will officially become the President of the United States, which may have a greater impact on the trends of BTC and cryptocurrencies.

The top three most popular narratives according to Coingecko statistics are Meme, AI, and RWA. Among them, Meme currency has become the absolute focus of the market, occupying the It attracted 30.67% of investors’ attention. The recovery and sustained development of various tracks also demonstrated the diversity and vitality of the market.

2.1 Industry hot spots

AI+Meme: ai16z leading representative

Ecological consensus has exploded, and ai16z has driven the general rise of AI concepts. On the last day of 2024, ai16z continues to lead the AI ​​track to continuously break through the market value ceiling. After Shaw announced his plan to turn ai16z into Layer 1, ai16z rose 7% within 24 hours, and its current market value has reached US$1.9 billion. In addition to ai16z itself, multiple concept coins surrounding ai16z are also skyrocketing. The current total market value of the AI ​​+ AI Meme sector is as high as 56.6 billion US dollars.

Among them, AI Meme rose by 26.52% and AI rose by 3.51%.

The emergence of GOAT became the first Meme generated by AI dialogue on the market. This was also the first time that AI achieved its goals through cryptocurrency and the Internet, and learned from human behavior. study. Only meme coins can carry such a highly experimental project. At the same time, similar conceptual currencies have sprung up, but most of their functions are limited to automatic tweeting, replying, etc., with no practical application. Such as Fartcoin, Shoggoth, etc. This type of Meme is the early form of AI+Meme.

After that, the scenarios of AI Agents began to extend from simple interactions on social media to more valuable scenarios. This includes content production such as music videos, as well as investment analysis, fund management and other services that are more suitable for currency users. From this stage, AI Agent is separated from the meme currency, thus forming a new track.

From a product level, AI Agent may serve more as a simple tool, such as giving investment advice and generating reports. However, fund management requires higher-level capabilities, including strategy design, dynamic adjustment and market prediction, which marks that AI Agent is not onlyis a tool, but begins to participate in the process of value creation.

ai16z has become the most typical representative. After Shaw, founder of Eliza, the underlying logic of ai16z, announced plans to make ai16z into Layer 1, ai16z rose in price within 24 hours. 37%, and the current market value has reached US$1.9 billion. As an AI-driven on-chain fund, ai16z has also derived a sub-sector (ai16z sector), such as:

Degenai: imitating well-known traders The AI ​​Agent created by DegenSpartan, also a member of ai16z DAO, has risen 151% in the past 7 days;

Eliza: The same name as Eliza, the framework behind ai16z. It has a very high reputation in the current field of AI Agent, with an increase of 233% in the past 7 days;

FMG believes that more practical functions have begun to be implemented in AI Agent Finally, with practical and effective application scenarios to explain the logic of price support, AI Meme will usher in a new round of "breaking the circle", such as the interoperability of multi-chain ecology and the combination with traditional tracks DeFi and DePIN. Ultimately, a real consumer-grade application will be formed that is driven by AI and uses AI Agent to express scenarios.

RWA:

The tokenized assets of the RWA market will exceed US$100 billion in 2024 , an increase of nearly three times compared with 2023.

Binance Labs made it clear in the “Outlook 2025” released on December 31 that Binance Labs’ main areas of focus are encryption/blockchain, artificial intelligence and Biotechnology, it’s also great to see innovation emerging at the intersection of these three fields. Existing narratives such as DeSci, RWA/stablecoins, and AI agents should continue to perform well with strong momentum.

In addition, Coinbase also stated in the latest outlook: 1. Stable coins have just started; 2. RWA tokenization is expected to achieve substantial growth; 3. Encryption ETFs have forever changed the supply and demand dynamics of cryptocurrencies; 4. The DeFi renaissance will push it into a new era; 5. Regulation will eventually turn from headwinds to tailwinds.

We have reason to believe that in 2025, the RWA track will receive further attention. This is because Web3 has become increasingly integrated with the real world, and projects in the chain world (such as Uniswap, AAVE) are gradually becoming The interests of traditional big players are expressed, and more traditional world players will try to obtain arbitrage through Web2 and Web3 investments.

It is expected that the market size of the global RWA track will exceed US$500 billion in 2025. Mainstream asset types will include:

Treasury bonds: Attract more institutional investment

Real estate: Tokenization of commercial real estate and residential real estate will be further popularized, providing more investment opportunities.

Product: Commodities such as gold and oil will achieve higher liquidity through tokenization.

At the same time, more simple and friendly platforms will be launched to enable retail investors. Easily participate in tokenized asset transactions, thereby promoting the penetration and popularity of the track.

In addition, major economies such as the United States, the European Union, etc. are expected to expand. Introducing a clearer regulatory framework in the RWA field. For example, the United States will clarify the tokenization of national debt, Singapore, etc. We will continue to promote the integration of RWA with the traditional financial system and attract innovative projects through regulatory sandboxes.

We predict that in 2025, the RWA track will gradually move from early stage experiments. The stage has entered a mature stage and has become one of the core areas of blockchain technology application.

2.2 Potential project exploration

2.2.1 AIPool: A fully AI-driven token issuance platform based on TEE environment

About AIPool:

AIPool is an AI Agent independent currency issuance project built by a user named @Skely (an active member of ai6z DAO) based on the Eliza framework. In this project, users inject funds into the AI ​​Agent's address, and the AI. The Agent will decide and issue tokens independently, and even the naming of the tokens will be decided by AI.

AIPool working mechanism:

AIPool is similar to Pump.fun in the token issuance process, but AIPool Through TEE technology, AI independently generates private keys and keeps private keys independently. Any signature can only be executed by AI in the TEE environment, so it can fundamentally avoid the phenomenon of bankers' donations running away; secondly, AIPool uses TEE technology and works with Phala The contract realizes the interaction between the internal chain and the external chain in the TEE environment, and implements offline calculations. Fully driven by AI, AIPool will add human influence to the project operation process and set up a DAO governance system to allow AI and people to jointly manage the development of the project.

AIPool release performance:

AIPool released its first AI Agent code on the same day Coin METAV, the market value rose to 96 million US dollars in the first 3 hours of opening. It is currently experiencing a large-scale decline. The current price is 0.052, and the market value is about 52 million US dollars.

The issuance mechanism of AIPool is currently arousing heated discussions. AIPool’s fundraising and investment in the METAV project In terms of issuance, many problems are still exposed. For example, the fundraising cycle is not clearly separated. After the fundraising is completed, community users can still transfer coins to the AI ​​address. Many users who donated during the fundraising period did not receive tokens.

Looking forward: As a new thing, we should be more tolerant. AIPool officials also showed a positive attitude in facing the problem. The ai16z developer community focEliza updated the verifiable log of the TEE AI agent, allowing users to directly view and verify the operation of the AI ​​Agent.

2.2.2 Spore.fun: A token-reproducible issuance platform backed by Phala and ai16z

About Spore.fun:

Spore.fun is a Pump.fun-like product that uses the Eliza framework and combines TEE technology. It is essentially an AI Meme distribution platform.

Spore.fun working mechanism:

The biggest feature of the Spore.fun platform is that it has built an ecological environment composed of AI Agents on the platform, and different Agents can be incubated and bred. New Agent and issue tokens. According to the operating mechanism of Spore.fun, each AI Agent can be launched from Pump.fun. Once the market value reaches 500,000 US dollars and enters the Raydium fund pool, it will be eligible for "reproduction". However, to ensure its autonomous operation, the agent needs to lease a TEE server powered by Phala Network, ensuring its operations are conducted under independent and controlled conditions.

Spore.fun innovation:

In the early days of Spore.fun’s release, the platform will Two platform tokens are airdropped to SPORE holders, namely adam and eve. These two tokens are the paternal and maternal AI roles of the Spore.fun platform.

Adam and Eva are two AI Agents bred by the platform itself. The two will also continue to hatch their own offspring Agents. Adam and Eve respectively represent two different ideas for issuing tokens.

Adam line: pure Pump.fun mode, compete for more through brutal PvP competition More funds come in.

Eve line: After the community votes to select the project, tokens are issued using the AIPool model.

Essentially, Spore.fun is equivalent to automating the process of the emergence of new plates on Pump.fun, achieving unlimited deposits through unlimited splits, and survival of the fittest.

In addition, new tokens on the Spore platform will constantly refresh their smart contracts before they are officially launched. Users can only determine the name of the token that will be launched soon, but they cannot The corresponding smart contract address cannot be locked (in fact, through the behavior of AI constantly refreshing smart contracts, AI Agent can completely avoid the front-running behavior of all users. If a user has bought the current address, AI will automatically change the new contract address. ).

3.1 Ripple's chief legal officer outlined 6 principles to the US SEC, urging it to adopt a prudent encryption regulatory approach

On January 1, Ripple's chief legal officer Stuart Alderoty made a speech on New Year's Eve Outlined six key principles urging the U.S. SEC to adopt a prudent approach to encryption regulation:

SEC only has jurisdiction over securities transactions; the sale of gold bars with contractual rights, ownership or interests in gold mines may be securities transactions; the sale of the same gold bar without post-sale rights or obligations is just an asset sale, and the SEC has no authority to regulate; The jurisdiction of the SEC will not Amplified based on their selfish view of who “should” be disclosed; a token is in no way a security, although it can be the subject of a securities transaction; the concept that a token can “evolve” from a security to a non-security is Fictional fallacy with no legal basis.

3.2 US Powell: The Federal Reserve does not plan to include BTC on its balance sheet

December 19 On the same day, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stated at a press conference after the interest rate meeting that the Federal Reserve does not intend to include Bitcoin in its balance sheet. Powell said: “We are not allowed to own Bitcoin. The Federal Reserve Act regulates what the Fed can own, and the Fed is not seeking to change it. This is an issue that Congress should consider, but the Fed does not want to change the law. ”

On the 18th, Bitcoin Magazine reported that the US Bitcoin Policy Institute (The Bitcoin Policy Institute) drafted an executive order on the Bitcoin Strategic Reserve for President Trump.

3.3 German regulatory agency orders Worldcoin to delete human eye biometric data

German regulatory agency Bavaria The state data protection supervisory office ordered Worldcoin’s human verification project to delete biometric data collected by scanning eyeballs. Worldcoin said it had changed its processes and that the German regulator’s findings “largely” related to “outdated operations and technology that have been replaced by 2024.”

In this regard, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman said that in the past few months, it has taken steps to alleviate the concerns of regulators, including turning to WorldcoinA system that no longer stores biometric data. In order to comply with the requirements of the GDPR, the iris codes used to verify individual World IDs will no longer be stored and previously collected iris codes will be voluntarily deleted, ensuring that no personal data used to operate World IDs is retained.

The data in this article comes from: Coinglass, Rootdata, Coinmarketmap, X