Author: Daren Matsuoka, a16z crypto partner; Compiled by: 0xjs@金财经

2024 is likely to become the most exciting year in the history of the crypto industry. Crypto activity and usage hit all-time highs. Blockchain infrastructure has been significantly improved and transaction fees have been reduced. Stablecoins have found product-market fit. The inevitable intersection of crypto and AI is becoming clearer. Bitcoin and Ethereum ETPs approved. The legislative and regulatory environment now provides a positive path forward for the industry. All of which sets the stage for another exciting year.

As we consider what’s next for cryptocurrencies, here are five indicators we’ll be keeping a close eye on to track the industry’s continued development. (For additional metrics, you can also check out our State of Cryptocurrency Index, released in 2023 to track broader industry innovation and adoption forces.)

1. Every Number of monthly mobile wallet users

To attract the next wave of cryptocurrency users, we need to bring the user experience (UX) closer to that of web2 applications. Mobile wallets will play a key role here: hundreds of millions of “passive” cryptocurrency owners (people who own cryptocurrency but do not regularly trade on-chain) can be converted into active cryptocurrency users. To do this, developers need to continue building new consumer applications, and consumers need wallets to participate.

Last month, the number of mobile wallet users hit a record high, surpassing 35 million for the first time. This has been driven by growth from established brands such as Coinbase Wallet, MetaMask and Trust Wallet, but also driven by some new players such as Phantom and World App.

Consumer wallets present one of the toughest challenges in the industry to developers - finding the right balance between security, privacy and usability is no easy task . But now that blockchain infrastructure can handle hundreds of millions or even billions of on-chain users, now is the perfect time to build the next generation of mobile wallets. We will monitor these developments closely in 2025.

Track monthly mobile wallet users here.

2. Adjusted stablecoin transaction volume

Stablecoin activity will pick up in 2024 as infrastructure construction significantly reduces transaction fees. It is worth noting that stablecoins are not only used for cryptocurrency transactions, but also for cross-border payments and remittances; purchasing goods and services; and as a store of value, especially in times of rampant inflation. Stablecoins are already the cheapest way to send money, and we expect businesses to increasingly accept stablecoin payments.

Driven by these favorable factors, on-chain value settlement should continue to grow in 2025. While we can easily measure transaction volume using on-chain data, isolating true organic stabilityCoin usage can be difficult. Transactions can be initiated manually by end users or programmatically via bots, and some of these on-chain transactions do not resemble traditional settlements.

Fortunately, Visa has created a clear and simple way to demonstrate how stablecoins can be used while adjusting for inorganic activity from bots and other artificial inflationary behavior.

If stablecoin adoption—one of cryptocurrency’s most obvious use cases—starts to take off in 2025, this metric will be worth watching.

Track stablecoin trading volume here.

3. (Bitcoin and Ethereum) ETP net flow

The U.S. SEC approved exchange-traded products (ETPs) for Bitcoin and Ethereum last year. This is an important milestone in making cryptocurrencies more accessible to individual and institutional investors. However, activating distributors such as Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase and Merrill Lynch who can incorporate these products into retail investors' portfolios will take time.

One way to measure ETP activity is through "net flow," which represents the amount of BTC or ETH flowing into or out of an ETP. (Excluding existing products like Grayscale Bitcoin and Ethereum Trusts, which eventually convert to ETP.) So far, there have been 515,000 BTC net flows (corresponding to $110 billion in on-chain holdings) and 611,000 ETH Net flows (corresponding on-chain holdings are $13 billion).

As more institutional investors seek exposure to crypto assets, this should translate into increased net ETP flows. Tracking on-chain deposits and withdrawals for addresses identified as ETP custodians allows us to monitor this data in real time.

Track ETP net flows here and here.

4. Proportion of spot trading volume DEX to CEX

As more and more people join the blockchain, we expect that in terms of cryptocurrency trading, the usage rate of decentralized exchanges (DEX) will Higher than centralized exchanges (CEX). After all, the core premise of cryptocurrency is decentralized finance, or DeFi. As the DeFi ecosystem grows, the share of spot trading on DEXs has steadily increased over the past few years to approximately 11%, a trend we expect to continue in 2025.

Recently, trading volumes on high-throughput chains such as Coinbase’s Base and Solana have surged as new users enter the space, driving DEX trading volumes to record highs.

As more and more new consumer applications come online, the importance of decentralized exchanges is likely to continue to grow, further fueling the growth of DEXs.

As we monitor the changing dynamics between decentralized, crypto-native activity and centralized crypto exchangesWhen balancing, this will be an important metric to watch.

Track the spot trading volume and the proportion of DEX relative to CEX here.

5. Total transaction fees (block space requirements)

The total transaction fees in US dollars reflect the total demand for block space on a specific chain, which is the actual economic value.

However, since most projects are explicitly trying to reduce user fees, there is a lot of nuance to this metric. This is why it is also important to consider the unit transaction cost (i.e. the cost of a given amount of blockchain resources). Ideally, overall demand (total transaction fees) grows while gas fees (cost per unit of resource usage) remain low.

In November 2024, Solana charged more fees than Ethereum for the first time (see chart below). Notably, this milestone was achieved despite Solana’s significantly lower unit transaction costs; sending USDC on Ethereum costs around $5, while sending USDC on Solana costs less than 1 cent . This is an important milestone and one we will continue to monitor.

Many ecosystems and their associated fee markets are maturing, and now is a good time to start measuring the economic value various blockchains bring. Over the long term, demand for block space (measured by the total dollar value of fees paid) may be the most important metric tracking the progress of the crypto industry. Why? Because it reflects participation in valuable economic activities and users’ willingness to pay for these activities.

Block space requirements are tracked here via transaction fees.

We track several indicators for the industry, including in our annual State of Cryptocurrency Report – but this year we’ll be keeping a close eye on these five indicators. As the investor pipeline expands, the industry will be well-positioned to attract more users and builders; as infrastructure matures, paving the way for compelling new applications; as more popular products such as stablecoins ) appears. Let's take a look at what other products were developed this year and are driving these metrics.