Author: UkuriaOC, CryptoVizArt, Glassnode; Compiled by: White Water, Golden Finance

As the price of Bitcoin rose to $100,000, long-term holders began to allocate more than 507,000 BTC, although it is still below 934,000 BTC from sellers during the March rally, but still significant.

Long-term holders locked in significant profit amounts, setting daily realized profits at a new ATH 2.02B.

When assessing the composition of physical spending, the bulk of the sell-side pressure appears to be coming from tokens between 6 months and 1 year old.

After an ongoing series of new ATHs, the price of Bitcoin is now very close to the impressive and long-awaited price of $100,000 per coin. As in all previous cycles, the long-term holder group is taking advantage of liquidity inflows and the strengthening demand side to resume large-scale allocation of held supply.

This group has now sold 507,000 BTC since LTH supply peaked in September. This is a considerable size; however, it is small compared to the 934,000 BTC during the March 2024 ATH rally.

We see a similar picture by evaluating the percentage of the total supply that long-term holders trade from profitable positions. Currently, an average of 0.27% of the LTH supply is sold each day, with only 177 of all trading days having a higher selling rate.

Interestingly, we can observe that the relative ratio of LTH payouts is higher than ATH in March 2024, highlighting more aggressive selling activity.

We can also refer to the LTH vitality metric to evaluate the balance between Coinday creation (holding time) and Coinday destruction (holding time spent). Typically, an uptrend in Vitality is characterized by an environment of increased consumer activity, while a downtrend indicates that long-term holding is the primary driver.

While the current supply distribution rate is greater than the March peak, Coinday’s burn volume remains low. This highlights that most LTH token transactions are likely to have been acquired very recently (e.g., the average is more likely to be 6 months rather than 5 years).

Long-term holders play a key role in the price discovery process as they are the primary source of previously dormant supply returning to liquid circulation. As a bull market progresses, it becomes more cautious to assess the extent of profit-taking among this group, as they tend to become increasingly active as prices rise.

Long-term holders are currently realizing a whopping $2.02B in daily profits, setting a new ATH and surpassing the one set in MarchNew ATH. A strong demand side is needed to fully absorb this oversupply, which may take a period of re-accumulation to fully absorb.

Assessing the balance between LTH’s profit and loss volume, we can see that the ratio of the two accelerated rapidly in November. By definition, this is a loss due to insufficient LTH supply during this price discovery mechanism.

Historically, prices will remain positive for several months assuming a large and sustained influx of new demand.

The sell-side risk ratio evaluates the total amount of realized profits and losses locked in by an investor relative to the size of the asset (measured by the realized cap). We can think of this metric in the following framework:

High value indicates that investors spent the token at a substantial profit or loss relative to its cost base. This situation indicates that the market may need to re-find its balance, and often high-volatility price movements occur.

Low values ​​indicate that most tokens are spending relatively close to their break-even cost base, indicating that some level of equilibrium has been reached. This situation typically means that "profits and losses" have been exhausted within the current price range, and often describes a low-volatility environment.

Sell-side risk ratios are approaching high territory, inferring that significant profit-taking is taking place within the current range. Still, the current reading is significantly lower than the final value reached in the previous cycle. This suggests that previous bull markets had enough demand to absorb supply even under similar relative selling pressure.

After identifying a significant rise in profit-taking by long-term holders, we can increase the granularity of our assessment by carefully examining the composition of the supply being sold.

We can use the age segmentation of the realized profit metric to assess which subgroups contribute the most to seller pressure. Here we calculate the cumulative profit-taking volume by time since the start of November 2024.

Profit realized in 6 months to 1 year: US$12.6 billion

Profit realized in 1-2 years: US$7.2 billion

Profit realized in 2-3 years: US$4.8 billion

3- Profit realized in 5 years: $6.3 billion

Profit realized in 5+ years: $4.8 billion

Tokens aged between 6 months and 1 year dominate the current seller pressure , accounting for 35.3% of the total.

The dominance of tokens with time horizons of 6 months to 1 year highlights that most spending is coming from recently purchased tokens, highlighting that more long-term investors remain cautious and may be patient Higher prices. One could argue that these selling volumes could describe swing-trading-style investors who accumulated capital after the ETF launch and planned to ride the next wave in the market.

Next, we can apply the same approach to the size of the profits realized by all investors and divide them by the locked-in return on investmentRate percentages are classified.

0%-20% realized profit: US$10.1 billion

20%-40% realized profit: US$10.7 billion

40%-60% realized profit : US$7.3 billion

60%-100% realized profit: 72 billion US dollars

100%-300% realized profit: 13.1 billion US dollars

300%+ realized profit: 10.7 billion US dollars

Interestingly, these groups have There is a degree of consistency, with all groups having similar proportions of the total. Arguably, this represents an “unrealistic” strategy where investors with a lower cost basis achieve similar dollar profits by selling fewer tokens over time.

Focusing specifically on tokens purchased during 2021, 2022, and 2023, we can observe substantial and sustained spending behavior during the March peak.

However, in the current rally, the selling action mainly includes coins purchased in 2023, while coins purchased in 2021 and 2022 are only starting to increase their seller pressure. This is again consistent with a possible explanation for “swing trading” style profit taking as the dominant strategy.

To measure the sustainability of this upward trend, we can compare the structure of the current URPD to the structure experienced during the March 2024 ATH.

In March 2024, after several months of appreciation following the ETF’s launch, supply in several supply clusters changed hands between $40,000 and $73,000. During the subsequent seven months of price volatility, the region emerged as one of the most important supply clusters in history.

As supply re-accumulates, it forms the ultimate support for the start of this rally.

Fast forward to today and the market has rallied so quickly that very few BTC are changing hands between $76,000 and $88,000. Two key observations can be identified from this:

Price discovery is a process that often requires rallies, corrections, and consolidation to confirm new price ranges.

There is some sort of "air gap" below $88,000, which could become an area of ​​concern if the market pulls back lower before re-attempting above $100,000.

As the market attempts to re-find equilibrium in this price discovery mechanism, changes in the supply distribution can provide insight into the supply and demand areas of interest.

Long-term holders are selling on the back of rising prices. This creates a supply glut that must be absorbed to accommodate continued price increases.

When assessing the composition of physical spending, the bulk of the sell-side pressure appears to be coming from BTC between 6 months and 1 year old. This bulgeThis shows the potential for further selling by older entities that require higher prices to sell their BTC.