Author: @Web3_Mario

Abstract: Thank you very much for your support this year. I’m sorry that the author’s year-end summary came a little late, and it took time to deal with things. Of course, I have been thinking about what should be done for a long time. Let’s sort out my insights over the past year from this perspective. Finally, I think it would be more realistic to share my thoughts and feelings with you from the perspective of an ordinary Web3 entrepreneur who is still struggling on the front line. In general, looking at 2024 and looking forward to 2025, I think it is quite appropriate to summarize it in four sentences, from recklessness to universality, from chaos to order, from depression to bubble, and from conservatism to change. Next, the author will use some events that I think are representative to share my thoughts and prospects.

From recklessness to universality: The passage of BTC spot ETF kicked off the road to universalization of crypto assets

Looking back on 2024, the author believes that the most unusual transformation that the crypto world has experienced is the transformation from the past small products of subcultures It has been upgraded to an asset class with universal value, and this process can be traced back to two landmark events. One is the BTC spot ETF approval event that has been going on for three months on January 10, 2024. Along with the SEC’s approved and officially passed. The second is that on November 6, 2024, during the current U.S. election cycle, the cryptocurrency-friendly Trump was successfully elected as the 47th President of the United States. The corresponding impacts of the two can be seen from the two relatively obvious price trends of BTC this year. The former raised the price of BTC from $30,000 to $60,000, while the latter contributed most to the rise of BTC from $60,000 to $100,000.

The most direct impact of this change is on capital liquidity. Abundant liquidity is naturally beneficial to the price trend of risky assets, but the process of attracting liquidity And the motivations are not the same as the 21-year bull market. Looking back at the crypto asset bull market in 2021, the core source of its main driving force is the higher financial efficiency brought about by the de-regulatory nature of crypto assets, making the crypto track more important to Biden's "$1.9 trillion" push in response to the new crown epidemic. The excess liquidity brought about by the Economic Rescue Plan is more efficient, thus achieving ultra-high speculative returns.

However, in the current bull market that started in 2024, it can be seen that the entire transmission process has changed. With the "influential funds" attracted by the 21-year bull market and the newly formed vested interests, New interest groups are actively unleashing greater influence, not limited to numerous crypto lobbying groups and massive donations. Regarding this point, the author had a relatively in-depth analysis in his previous article on "In-depth Analysis of the Value of World Liberty Financial: New Choices Given the Disadvantage of Trump's Campaign Funding".

The most direct impact of this is that it becomes possible to efficiently promote the universal value of cryptocurrency through means. So in this cycle, you will see the value theory of crypto assetsThere are iterations of the narrative, and more traditional elites and mainstream media are labeling themselves “encryption-friendly.” This transformation from "reckless" to "universal" has also profoundly affected the motivation for attracting liquidity, regardless of whether the point of view has sufficient arguments (already discussed in a previous article, "In-depth Analysis of the Current Crypto Market Shock" The underlying reason: After BTC breaks new highs "Anxiety about value growth"), in addition to speculation, the motivation for purchasing BTC this time is indeed mixed with more words such as "stored value" and "anti-inflation", which will make the speculative attributes of crypto assets Cyclicity and volatility are reduced, and value support is more robust. Of course, the crypto assets that can achieve such positive changes currently only include a few blue-chip assets such as BTC, but with the transmission effect brought about by the multiplier effect, the entire crypto asset market will benefit to a greater or lesser extent. It might be more intuitive to illustrate this transition with a diagram.

In addition to its impact on the top class, this evolution has also brought about a huge positive mentality change for many practitioners, including the author. The most intuitive example is that when relatives and friends outside the circle ask you about your industry, you no longer have to explain cautiously that you are not a criminal or a nouveau riche like in the past. Now you can introduce your profession or career with a straight chest. . This change in mentality will also make the inflow of talent more positive, and the friction costs in processes such as starting a business, recruiting partners, recruiting talents, and seeking cooperation with traditional industries will be greatly reduced. Therefore, in view of this, the author is full of confidence in the future development of the industry.

Finally, I would like to mention some prospects for this narrative path. In mid-2025, the discussion on the value of crypto assets represented by BTC will be more active. This has been analyzed in previous articles, specifically The stored value of BTC and the takeover of AI have become the core of the growth of US stocks. Therefore, we need to be sensitive to relevant information, which may include the following aspects:

The progress of bills related to Bitcoin reserves at the regional, organizational, and company levels;

Influential Relevant speeches or expressions of opinions by key figures;

The allocation of BTC in the balance sheets of US listed companies;

From Chaos to Order: Global Sovereignty The regulatory framework of the encryption industry will be further improved, and Web3 business scenarios will be broken out with evidence.

The author’s second observation path is “from chaos to order.” We’ve known for a long time that one of the core narratives in the cryptocurrency industry has been the censorship resistance that comes with decentralization and anonymity. You can find similar narratives in most Web3 applications in the last cycle, which is natural. It made an important contribution to finding value support for the Web3 industry in the early stages, but it also brought considerable harm to the industry, such as fraud, money laundering and other criminal activities.

However, the author believes that industry development will make iterations in this direction. This does not mean to completely abandon Web3 fundamentalism, but I believe that from a pragmatic perspective, the currentThe crypto industry will undergo a transformation from chaos to order, and this transition will be accompanied by the further improvement of the global sovereign crypto industry regulatory framework. We know that among the many “encryption gaming hot spots” in 2024, the change of SEC Chairman Gary Gensler has attracted much attention. For a long time in the past, under this crypto-unfriendly chairman, the SEC has prosecuted a large number of American crypto companies, such as Ripple, Consensys, etc., causing these giants to face bottlenecks in their business development and expansion. In the previous "Buy the Rumor" series : As expectations for an improvement in the regulatory environment increase, which cryptocurrency will be most directly beneficial? "In the article, Lido is used as an example to clearly analyze the progress in this direction.

However, with Trump taking office, his preference for deregulation, and the change of Gary Gensler, a more relaxed and inclusive, encryption-friendly regulatory framework is worth looking forward to. From the recent Judging from the progress of judgments in related cases, such as Ripple, Tornado Cash, etc., the introduction of this framework will not be too far away.

The most direct benefit brought by this change is that it makes it possible to break out of the Web3 business scenario without having to bear many potential legal risks. In the next 2025, the author will pay special attention to the progress of such events. Everyone also needs to remain sensitive to similar information, including the judgment results of other lawsuits, the proposal and advancement of relevant bills, changes in SEC personnel appointments, key Speeches and opinions of decision-makers, etc. As for potential market-breaking businesses, the author is very interested in two aspects:

Ce-DeFi scenario: connecting traditional financial instruments with on-chain tools such as crypto assets to solve financial efficiency and reduce costs. Transaction friction costs and other means can be divided into two major categories in terms of the direction of capital flow. One is from the traditional financial world to on-chain encrypted assets, such as MicroStrategy's financial innovation. The second is the transmission from on-chain crypto assets to the traditional financial world, specifically bond-based RWA, on-chain financing channels similar to Usual Money, and TradeFi fields such as stable coins.

The scene of DAO in off-chain entity business management: This direction is a bit confusing. Due to Trump’s relaxation of cryptocurrency-related regulatory measures and the boosting demand of “America First”, Will more off-chain organizations or companies that prefer traditional businesses choose to use the DAO model for internal governance in exchange for cheaper financial services? Here is an example. If someone wants to open a Chinese restaurant, they can choose to operate it through DAO and connect to a stablecoin-based payment system. At that time, all cash flows will be open and transparent. At the same time, if regulations are further relaxed, the company’s financing and Dividends and other aspects can also be carried through DAO.

From depression to bubble: Traditional Web3 business development focuses on three main axes: more novel grand narratives, more stable business revenue, and moreBalanced Interest Game Model

The author’s third observation path is “from depression to bubble”. We know that in the middle of 2024, the traditional Web3 business hotspots have experienced a relatively big change. From the first half of the year, represented by the LRT market driven by EigenLayer, it mainly showed the characteristics of the industry's depression period. Due to the lack of general money-making effect, in In the context of the stock game, Capital has gathered together and chosen to focus on the few Infra sectors with huge potential markets but longer-term actual business implementation. They trade time for space and exploit users by inflating valuations and using a "points strategy" to avoid dilution of chips. , this is mentioned in the author’s previous article “Web3 Oligarchs are Exploiting Users: There is an analysis in "From Tokenomics to Pointomics".

However, with the improvement of the market environment in the middle of the year and the unsatisfactory performance of Token prices in the LRT sector, the focus has gradually shifted to the application layer represented by TON Mini App. Compared with infra, the application layer With more target choices, lower development costs, shorter implementation cycles, and easier-to-control iteration benefits, it is highly praised by capital. At this time, the market quickly emerged from the haze of the depression period.

In the second half of the year, as the Federal Reserve entered the interest rate cut cycle, and with the Fud problem of VC coins, the traditional capital exit path was broken, the market quickly entered a bubble, and a large amount of capital chased away the real and turned into virtual. , and exited Meme coin with a shorter cycle to pursue a higher capital turnover rate. In addition to Meme coin itself, launch platforms represented by Pumpfun and newer tools that overlay narratives such as AI Agent are also being pursued by the market.

Looking forward to the next year, the author believes that the traditional Web3 business will follow the development model of the bubble cycle:

A more novel grand narrative: We know that capital likes to chase high growth. The core reason is the huge imagination potential and tolerance for current delivery, which makes the valuation bubble even bigger. And it is easier to attract market traders and new capital to enter, making it easier for investors to exit through the secondary market at the right time. Therefore, regardless of whether the forward value of a certain track is recognized or not, as long as it is logical, it can become the target of attracting capital for speculation during the bull market bubble period. Therefore, from the perspective of pursuing capital gains, everyone should remain sensitive.

More stable business revenue: For some tracks that have experienced a round of iterations, the valuation model will return to a reasonable range, and the pursuit of real income will become the main theme of industry iterations. This will It puts forward higher requirements for refining demand with commercialization potential, but if a certain scenario can be truly explored, the market potential will be endless. This refers specifically to the DeFi track, or the Ce-DeFi track. The author is personally very interested in the interest rate trading market. Friends with similar ideas are welcome to discuss with the author.

A more balanced interest gameModel: We know that the current traditional VC coins suffer from Fud. The more problem is that the current traditional financing model makes the game relationship between project parties, primary market VCs and secondary market investors appear the most individual in the prisoner's dilemma. Optimal strategy, each prisoner thinks that the other may betray, so he chooses to betray (to ensure his release or reduce his punishment). Therefore, in the new environment, attention can also be paid to whether a better model can be found. For example, the author believes that HyperLiquid is very likely to have discovered some of its mysteries. This is also a focus of the author's next research.

From conservatism to change: Great uncertainty brings a rare escape opportunity for risk assets

The author’s fourth observation path is “from conservatism to change”. It needs to be explained that conservatism and reform here are just neutral terms. Conservatism means compliance with existing rules, while change means breaking. The main theme of 2025 must be the major changes in the economic and cultural fields caused by transformation. The whole process is full of uncertainties caused by the collapse of the old order. For example, the uncertainty of the Sino-US debt crisis, the uncertainty of currencies of various countries, the uncertainty of changes in mainstream social values, the uncertainty of international relations, etc.

What these uncertainties bring is huge volatility in the risk market. Of course, if sector rotation puts the industry in a positive state of promotion, this volatility will bring Good thing, vice versa. A piece of news in the past two days made me interested in this direction, that is, the FTX restructuring plan will take effect on January 3 and will allow users to start receiving repayments.

We know that in the last cycle, the mainstream spectrum in the technology industry was still relatively Democratic. Therefore, we believe that many big players who entered the market in the last bull market will not have an easy time after Trump returns. Therefore, it is understandable that he will use the window period before he officially takes office to drive up relevant prices as much as possible and use his risky assets as a hedging option. A little conspiracy theory here. Some Deep State capital suffered huge losses due to the bankruptcy of FTX and the collapse of the crypto industry. Therefore, after Trump won the election, he did not hesitate to use many means to raise the price of crypto assets to an exaggerated level. Thus reviving some already dilapidated balance sheets and avoiding their own losses.

The author also got some inspiration from the FTX case, so I am also quite interested in the development of the NFT track in 2025. It seems that the two have some similarities, and combined with new technologies such as AI Agent Jin's speculative narrative, it is not a bad idea for the NFT market to have a second spring.