Author: Frances Yue, Market Watch; Compiled by: Deng Tong, Golden Finance

An analyst said that Bitcoin may rise to a record high above $125,000 in the first quarter, or it may fall. to $77,000 – The key will be whether President-elect Donald Trump will deliver on his promises to the cryptocurrency industry soon after taking office.

John Glover, chief investment officer of crypto lending platform Ledn and former managing director of Barclays Investment Bank, said that according to the technical analysis tool Elliott Wave Theory, Bitcoin is expected to fall to $89,000 and then fall to $89,000 in 2025. It topped $125,000 in the first quarter.

Elliot Wave Theory believes that asset prices consist of five waves along the main trend direction and three counter-trend correction waves in each cycle. Each corrective wave is followed by a wave in the direction of the main trend.

Glover said in a phone interview: "Earlier this week, we saw Bitcoin fall below $92,000, so we may be done before heading towards $125,000. Glover said that if Bitcoin breaks through $125,000, it may experience another correction before approaching a cycle high of $160,000.

Glover said Bitcoin could see a correction ahead of Trump's inauguration on January 20 as investors take profits.

Cryptocurrency bulls expect the regulatory environment to become more favorable during Trump’s presidency. They are watching to see if the new president will soon follow through on his promises to the cryptocurrency industry, especially his pledge to establish a strategic Bitcoin reserve in the United States, although Trump has yet to detail any specific plans.

Glover said that if Trump does not take any action to fulfill his promises in the early days of his administration - especially in his first 100 days in office - Bitcoin may see a correction. Politicians and analysts often use the first 100 days in office as a measure of the effectiveness and impact a new U.S. president is likely to achieve.

However, Glover noted that based on technical setup, Bitcoin is unlikely to fall below $77,000.

Analysts at blockchain data platform Glassnode said investors should also keep a close eye on the $87,000 level, which is Bitcoin's short-term holding cost basis assuming the cryptocurrency is reasonably valued. This “on-chain” analysis examines data recorded directly on the blockchain network to gain insights into market trends or investor behavior.

Analysts note that there is a demand gap between Bitcoin prices between $87,000 and $71,000, making the formerShort-term price "make or break" levels. Glassnode analysts say this level acts as support in an uptrend; however, if decisively broken, Bitcoin’s price could turn into resistance, signaling a shift in market sentiment.

Another key catalyst for Bitcoin in January could be portfolio rebalancing by financial institutions, QCP Capital analysts said. Hedge funds and asset managers often choose to rebalance portfolios in January to develop strategies for the year, adapt to market conditions and optimize tax implications.

QCP analysts note that allocations to Bitcoin are likely to increase this year as more institutions adopt Bitcoin following the launch of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds last year and as strategists expect crypto The regulatory environment will become better.