2024 may be the most important year for on-chain development after the DeFi summer, and on-chain narrative investment opportunities continue to emerge. According to the author's observation, as the concept of "everything can be a meme" becomes more and more popular, Pump Fun's rapid asset issuance has become mainstream. Meme can start from 0, and the upper limit of the market value of the on-chain space (without listing top CEX) is about 1 billion US dollars.

For ordinary users, there is enough room for profit on the chain, and the existence of top CEX is the last link in the exit of investments on the chain. Due to the intensified conflicts between VCCoin and the community, new assets listed on top CEXs often perform poorly; while most of the old coins listed on top CEXs are in trouble, and the team momentum has not been restored or cannot keep up with market changes, waiting to unlock the flat market status.

This article is mainly based on the prediction of on-chain transactions and investments, focusing on on-chain interpretation. It is only the author's shallow prediction and is not intended as any investment advice. It is only for thinking. .

1. The monthly trading volume of DEX/CEX will exceed 20% for the first time

According to Blockchain data, DEX trading volume exceeded US$320 billion in December 2024, completing the highest single month in history, with a year-on-year increase of more than 200%; DEX/CEX trading volume in December 2024 accounted for 11.64%, compared with 2023 The 9.55% in December has increased, and the DEX/CEX trading volume will account for a maximum of 13.86% in 2024. The continuous optimization of on-chain tools such as Web3 wallets, led by CEX, may accelerate the popularity of on-chain transactions; the popularity and wealth effect caused by Meme is one of the important factors driving users to migrate from CEX to DEX.

2. The total market value of AI Agents/AI Meme will at least exceed that of NFT at its peak, and there will definitely be AI Agents tokens with a market value exceeding US$10 billion

AI The combination of Agent and tokenization is the narrative of the rapid development of the encryption market in the second half of 2024, with various types of AI Agents emerging in endlessly.

From the chatbot Truth Terminal (GOAT) that opened the Pandora's Box of AI Agents, to the ai16z DAO and the Shaw team behind it to create an AI based on a large language model. It only took a few months to deploy the Eliza framework of AI Agent and its token.

At least ai16z-Eliza, Virtuals Protocol-Game Framework, arc Framework, Zerebro-Zerepy and Dolion Framework are currently on the market. Among them, ai16z-Eliza and Virtuals Protocol-Game Framework form a strong ecological moat, among which Popular sub-coins derived from AI Agents are rapidly entering the market.

According to CoinGecko data, AI. The total market value of Agent-related tokens has reached US$12 billion. Among them, Virtuals Protocol's VIRTUAL plays a role on the Base network similar to the SOL trading pair token on the Solana network, while sub-coins such as AIXBT, GAME, and LUNA stimulate the ecosystem. The prosperity of the virtual currency has given birth to a virtual mother currency, which has become the highest market value of AI Agent-related tokens, reaching 3.5 billion US dollars.

3. It is expected that there will be 3-5 vertical issuance platforms based on Pump Fun in the futurePump Fun, as a launchpad that deploys tokens very deeply and quickly on the Solana network, has become the most profitable application in cryptocurrency this year, with tens of thousands of Memecoin issued every day.

With Pump With the rise of Fun, other blockchain networks have begun to follow suit and launched similar Memecoin issuance and trading platforms, such as SunPump on the Tron network, Uptos on the Aptos network, and Farcaster-based Clanker on the Base network.

< p style="text-align: left;">In addition, Memecoin gradually accumulates, everything can be Meme, the demand for refinement becomes stronger and stronger, and vertical Pump Fun distribution platforms gradually emerge, such as focusing on AI vvaifu issued by Agents, and Pump Science focusing on DeSci. AI Agents has become a multi-billion dollar interaction, and DeScI is also about to see the listing and manipulation potential of Binance’s focus on DeSci and the iconic protocol Bio Protocol. , which is based on different narratives and imaginations. The demand for decentralized currency issuance and rapid asset issuance is expected to generate more interpretations based on more vertical issuance platforms based on Pump Fun. 4. At least 5 Base ecological tokens are listed on Binance SpotAs a benchmark, Binance has launched perpetual contract transactions for DEGEN, AERO, VIRTUAL, and AIXBT, but has not yet launched any spot products from the Base ecosystem.

From the perspective of traffic, transaction activity, and wealth effects, Base is currently the only Ethereum L2 network that can compete with Solana; unlike Solana, Base’s ecology The effects will be concentrated, represented by the Virtuals and Farcaster systems. The market value of the Virtuals ecosystem has approached US$5 billion, taking a leading position among Crypto x AI Agents. Base Ecosystem may have the highest probability of being listed on top exchanges, and it is only a matter of time before the first Base Ecosystem spot is listed on Binance.

As a public chain under the US-compliant exchange Coinabse, it relies on the Coinbase wallet to open up Base -Fiat currency channel from USDC to bank account.

With Trump officially inaugurated, Coinbase and Base may be the first exchanges and networks to reap dividends if good news for crypto is hindered.

In addition, with Base head Jesse Pollak officially joining the Coinbase executive team and leading the Coinbase wallet in October, the Base network should be in Coinbase's strategic vision receive further attention.

5. Hyperliquid will have multiple spot opportunities, with a market value of over US$1 billion

Hyperliuqid has greatly increased community participation through large-scale HYPE token airdrops and wealth effects and user attention. At present, Hyperliuqid's Arbitrum Bridge fund has sunk more than 2 billion US dollars USDC, which is actually the 15th-ranked exchange; the total market value of the platform currency HYPE once exceeded 10 billion US dollars, and FDV exceeded 30 billion US dollars.

Judging from the development path of CEX, especially the relatively young CEX, it mainly started from contracts with excellent performance and liquidity, but the real brand moat It is the wealth effect brought by the exclusive spot.

Hyperliquid’s HIP-1 and HIP-2 standards make it possible to introduce proprietary assets, a capability not available on on-chain exchanges that have attempted to move from contracts to spot trading in the past. The HIP-1 standard enables tokens to be traded directly on-chain, while the HIP-2 standard supports the market performance of these tokens by embedding liquidity upon issuance.

When it is difficult to list the currency on the head CEX and the asking price is high, through spot It has become a good choice to launch Hyperliquid through seat auction. Projects that are known to have completed auctions on Hyperliquid but have not yet been officially launched include Solv Protocol (SOLV) and Azuki-Anime (ANIME).

At present, the main market value and trading volume of Hyperliquid spot are concentrated in HYPE, and there are only two other projects with a market value of more than 100 million US dollars.

With the high market value of HYPE, more funds are needed to drive the market; the platform has joined forces with some excellent exclusive projects to jointly create exclusive assets The wealth effect is obviously higher, and HYPE ultimately benefits from the increase in Hyperliquid's trading volume and reputation.