Article author: Ray Dalio Article title: Block unicorn

Now, Trump’s right-wing team is in the election China achieved a decisive victory over Harris's left-wing plan, averting the nightmare scenario of Trump's possible narrow defeat and an election dispute. With the announcement of some key appointments, a possible scenario is beginning to emerge. I want to be clear that the picture I paint is intended to reflect the situation as accurately as possible and not with a good or bad bias, as accuracy is critical to making the best decisions.

The current status I see includes:

1) A campaign aimed at improving A massive transformation of efficiency, which will trigger an internal struggle to turn this vision into reality;

2) "America First" diplomacy, and the External preparations for war because it is considered the greatest threat to the United States. This is similar to the practice of some countries in the 1930s.

Trump is picking people to help him achieve these goals, including Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswa Vivek Ramaswamy, who will be in charge of the newly proposed Department of Efficiency; Matt Gaetz, who, if confirmed by the Senate, will serve as attorney general and push the legal boundaries of the new governance order; Robert F. Kennedy Jr. RFK Jr., who will overhaul the health care system as secretary of Health and Human Services; and Marco Rubio as secretary, Tulsi Gabbard as intelligence director, and Pete With Pete Hegseth as defense secretary, they will lead the fight against foreign adversaries. In addition, there are many others - some who will be on the inside and some who will serve as outside advisers, like Tucker Carlson, Steve Bannon, and some members of the Trump family - —will work with Trump to accomplish this mission. They were all "victory-first" advocates loyal to their leader and their mission, which was to overthrow the so-called "deep state" and replace it with a new order that they hoped would bring maximum economic power and resistance to foreign enemies.

Once these people are in place, this method of appointment will likely be used to weed out alleged "deep" members.personnel who are deemed to be disloyal to or disloyal to the mission. This purge will extend to all parts of the system, including those previously considered less subject/ideologically controlled agencies such as the military, DOJ, FBI, SEC, Federal Reserve, FDA, Disease Control with the Centers for Prevention, the Department of Homeland Security, the Interior Department, and “Category F” employees (a job classification Trump would like to reintroduce as president to eliminate civil service protections for certain positions). Nearly every appointive position that the president can control (working with the Republican-controlled Senate, House of Representatives, and Justice Department) will be controlled to ensure that people aligned with Trump and his New Order goals are in place. In the process, almost everyone inside and outside will be viewed as an ally or an enemy, and all the power available to Trump and his allies will be used to attack those enemies who stand in the way of reform. I think they will almost certainly have a significant impact on changes in the United States and the world order, so what will those changes look like?

Changes in the American order

It is now clear that Trump and his team Will reform and. They will make huge changes by replacing personnel, slashing costs and introducing new technology. One can think of the sentiments conveyed by Gordon Gekko in his "Greed is Good" speech, but it needs to be recognized that this approach was taken by the President of the United States, not only to the federation but also to the entire nation. As mentioned, the most recent historical example is the far right in the 1930s. To be clear, I'm not saying that Trump and others are fascists or that they will act like fascist leaders in many ways; I mean, in order to understand those who are in charge now and their doctrines, Protectionism, a top-down dominant economy and society, as well as their low tolerance for internal opposition and involvement in international great power conflicts, can be seen as adopting similar behavioral patterns in the 1930s.

's economic reforms are likely to be achieved through industry. These are aimed at improving productivity and efficiency, but there are issues that may hinder their implementation - such as environmental protection, climate change, etc. change, alleviating poverty or promoting diversity, equity and inclusion – would not be given much attention. Some key areas, including what I consider to be the most important areas of education and debt management, are likely to be ignored (and are likely to be ignored by Democrats). As long as the Trump-Musk partnership lasts, they will be the primary architects and enforcers of the new American order.

Previously, these entities were subject to transaction restrictions in many aspects, but in the future itThey will be able to free themselves more freely from the constraints of . These changes will be very beneficial to financial dealmakers, banks and asset managers, as capital controls will be relaxed and the Fed will be under pressure to make money easier, giving them more freedom, money and credit. These would also be good for pro-Trump tech companies, as they would be able to grow and operate largely unfettered. In addition, these are also good for lawyers because they will be busier. I can already see these people making bigger plans to get more done under Trump than under the Democrats.

In addition, AI regulation will be weakened, and tariffs will be used to simultaneously increase tax revenue and protect producers. If the Fed continues to insist on cutting interest rates (although I don't think it should), it will also move a lot of money stored in money market funds and other deposits to other markets, thus stimulating the market and the economy.

In addition, the United States is engaged in an economic war and a geopolitical war, and may have military conflicts with Russia, Iran, North Korea and other countries. This reality will safety and significant impact. For example, to ensure that the United States has sufficient supply in all key technology areas, there will be requirements that these technologies must be produced in the United States (for example, by 2030, 20% of the most advanced chips must be produced in the United States) or in allied countries. This requires the central government to take strong measures and insist on good energy and regulation to ensure that these goals can be achieved.

Changes in the international order

The international order will transform from the following two forms ：

a) The existing broken system created by the United States and its allies after World War II relies on globally recognized standards of conduct, rules, and governance institutions such as the United Nations, World Trade Organization (WTO), International Court of Justice, International Monetary Fund (IMF), and World Bank;

b) A more fragmented world order. The United States will pursue "America First" and clearly distinguish allies, enemies and non-alignments, because the next 10 years will More economic and geopolitical conflict, and the possibility of military war is higher than ever before.

In other words, the era of U.S.-led multilateral cooperation, in which countries attempted to coordinate their relationships through multilateral organizations and guiding principles and rules, is drawing to a close. . It will be replaced by a more self-interested, an order of the jungle, in which the United States and the Dragon Kingdom will become the two main players, and the essence of the struggle is still the classic "capitalism versus capitalism" confrontation (in the form of a contemporary version).

Thus, American-dominated notions of morality and ethics—that is, what is “moral” and “ethical”—will become less important because The United States will no longer be the global leader in advocating and enforcing these principles. The choice of allies and enemies will be based more on strategic considerations, such as what deals can be struck. The affiliation of each country will become the most important issue.

Dragon will be regarded as the main enemy because it is both the most powerful and the most ideologically opposed to the United States; at the same time, Russia, North Korea and Iran are also classified as an enemy. In fact, it is widely considered to be the greatest threat to the United States, even more than any other threat. As for the others, this article will not elaborate on their specific positions, but it can be said that all are currently divided into allies or enemies to some extent, and this will also become the guiding principle for dealing with them.

At the same time, detailed response plans in various major and major areas are being formulated. All will face intense pressure and be given the opportunity to realign their order to align with the Trump-dominated U.S. leadership system; otherwise, they will face negative consequences.

This conflict between the two major powers will also create opportunities for neutral non-aligned parties, especially in the commercial field.

This dynamic change in the international order will also have a significant impact on developing countries (now known as the "global South") and the world as a whole

< p style="text-align: left;">The Global South, which accounts for about 85% of the world's population, may choose to go its own way, because the United States will no longer lead a common global order based on specific ideals, and others may not be willing to Follow America. The United States and the Dragon Powers will compete for allies, with the Dragon Powers generally considered to have a greater advantage in winning non-aligned countries because they are more economically important and perform better at using soft power.

In view of this change in the international order, non-aligned countries will benefit if they meet the following conditions:

1. The financial position is good, that is, having a healthy income statement and balance sheet;

2. The internal order is in order, and the capital market can promote the people andProductivity;

3. Not involved in international wars.

More specifically, the following points can be further elaborated on:

More implications

In order to achieve its goals, its influence will increase even at the expense of free markets and profit-seeking mechanisms. This will spark debate between conservatives, who support a top-down direction, and those who favor freer markets. Along these lines, we should expect an increase in intervention in private markets to advance its ambitious plans, including reshaping the economy and preparing for war. Therefore, cost efficiency and safety will become the main goals of cooperation with "champion" companies, rather than just pursuing profits, because profits alone cannot achieve these goals.

We need to pay attention to the changes that will determine which sectors of the economy will benefit most, such as the energy and mining industries that support AI technology. While there will be winners in the free market, there are obvious cases where America's best companies may not be enough to meet demand (such as in advanced semiconductors). Therefore, key partnerships with aligned foreign producers, such as Taiwan's TSMC, are needed to produce products in the United States to minimize dependence on foreign adversaries.

In addition to the production of key technologies in China, there is also the need to produce steel, cars, and many other necessities. This means more "reshoring production" and "friendly shore outsourcing." At the same time, there are also potential risks of disruption that could cut off supply chains in a number of ways.

Large-scale deregulation

To support cost-effective production, large-scale deregulation will be implemented Deregulation.

Immigration and deportation operations

Immigration will be intensified, with an initial focus on closing borders and deportations Undocumented immigrants with criminal records.

Trade and Tariff Reform

Challenges of Cooperation with U.S. Allies

In the geopolitical conflict with the Dragon Kingdom, Japan is the most important ally of the United States, so the current dynamics in Japan are crucial. Other allies such as Britain and Australia are important but not great powers. Europe is weak, busy with its own problems, and has no direct interest in this conflict; at the same time, facing the Russian threat, Europe cannot do without the support provided by the United States through NATO. Most other countries are reluctant to become involved in the conflict because the goals the United States strives for are less important to them than to the United States, and they are more economically dependent on the United States than on the United States. The emerging powers of the non-aligned Global South (which include BRICS members including China and Russia) are a group to watch. ,

As a world hegemon with the most important technology, strong military strength and soft power capabilities, the economic cost required will exceed that of relying solely on The scope of what the profit model can offer. Therefore, how to address this economic reality will require further exploration.

The need to lower taxes To keep voters satisfied while keeping money in the hands of the most productive people, taxes need to be lowered . Trump and his advisers believe that a lower corporate tax rate than current levels (about 20%) would increase overall tax revenue and boost productivity. This view is positive for the market.

Major reforms to the healthcare system are expected to make major adjustments to the current healthcare system to improve efficiency and reduce costs.

Priorities and Timetable

Faced with this series of arduous tasks, the new Time is required to accomplish this, especially in the first 100 days and the first two years thereafter. Therefore, priorities must be rigorously screened. It's unclear which goals will be prioritized or how successful New Zealand will be as its ambitions run into entrenched systemic resistance.

There is no doubt that this will be a challenging and important period, so let us stay tuned and wait and see.