Today is New Year's Day 2025, the first day of the new year. I would like to wish all our readers a happy New Year's Day.

2024 has passed in the blink of an eye. Looking back on 2024, I feel that my biggest gain is not what novel projects I participated in in the crypto ecosystem or what interesting new species I discovered, but what I read this year that greatly changed my outlook on life. , I listened to some enlightening lessons.

These books did not directly tell me which coins can make money by buying them, nor did they directly tell me which coins can rise to high levels. It seems to be a "useless" "dragon-slaying technique".

But these books and these classes allow me to stand at a higher perspective and see possible future development paths as large as possible and as small as possible ecological futures. The development prospects allow me to have clearer ideas and a clear framework when making choices at some key crossroads.

When I shared Mr. Buffett’s investment views with you in previous articles, I once shared a point of view that Mr. Buffett himself clearly said:

Buffett and Munger hardly look at the U.S. macroeconomics or macro indicators. The two old gentlemen also repeatedly emphasized that they could not guess the Fed's policy or the Treasury Department's policy at all, and their decisions had nothing to do with these macroeconomic policies.

But the old man also emphasized that he was lucky to be born in the United States. He said that if he had been born in Bangladesh, he would not have been so lucky.

At the shareholders' meeting, the old man was repeatedly asked a question:

He Why do you believe that the U.S. stock market will definitely achieve greater success and that the undervalued price will definitely catch up with the intrinsic value?

The old man pointed out that it is the legal system and market economy of the United States.

Regarding this reply from the old gentleman, I still have a doubt in my heart:

For those who don’t live in the United States, should we look at the big picture?

If you don’t read macrosLook, stocks bought on the Shanghai Stock Exchange before 1949 will be turned into waste paper after 1949.

If we want to look at the macro picture, how will macro factors affect our investment and even wealth? And what kind of thinking and framework should we use to judge the macro?

I think this kind of judgment on the macro environment is very important for an individual at the crossroads of and .

At such a crossroads, as ordinary people, how we choose will determine our destiny in the next ten or even decades.

In 1902, whether a young man from Gaochang Township, Jiangsu Province chose to stay locally and continue to be a farmer or to take risks in the Shanghai Concession decided whether he would be "Du Yuesheng" or "Du Yuesheng" in the future. "Du Yuesheng".

In 1905, whether a Shandong farmer chose to break through Guandong or go south to the five trading cities, his fate would be completely different.

In 1949, whether a farmer in Guangdong, who was struggling for food and clothing, chose to stay on the mainland or go to Hong Kong like a refugee, determined his life experiences for the next 30 years.

In 2018, some people thought that two landmark things had happened and completely liquidated all assets (including real estate). However, in 2021, some people will increase leverage to hedge. Enter the housing market.

It is safe and smooth, and even life jumps across classes are possible.

Many of these people have made very wise decisions in the eyes of later generations, but they may not have great abilities, read many books, or read more. It may not have much foresight, maybe it's just an idea that came to mind and gritted one's teeth for a moment.

Despite this, I never give up. Is there any way to learn lessons from history and find the laws among them, which will be enough to change my life's fate in the future? What about predicting the macro environment in advance?

I found the answer in my study in 2024.