Golden Finance reported that Goldman Sachs issued a report stating that its forecast for the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut this year has been reduced from 1% to 0.75%, and its report on a rebound in basic inflation has been greatly exaggerated. The annualized increase in core PCE inflation from September to November last year was 2.5%, slightly higher than the 2.3% in the previous three months, but lower than the 2.8% year-on-year increase, which is still consistent with a continued decline. The report also pointed out that the Dallas Fed's revised average PCE inflation from September to November last year was 2.4%, compared with 1.8% in November last year. As the labor market tightens back to 2017 levels, the annual wage growth rate has slowed to 3.9%, which is in the 3.5 to 4% range. If productivity grows by 1.5 to 2% in the next few years, it will be consistent with 2% inflation. Goldman Sachs also assumes that the United States will increase the average tariff rate on Chinese goods by 20% and impose tariffs on European cars and Mexican electric vehicles, which is expected to increase inflation by 0.3 to 0.4% next year. But the impact should dissipate after a year, unless there are significant second-round effects through wages or inflation expectations. This would make it comparable to the VAT increases seen repeatedly in other G10 economies, which typically do not leave a lasting impact on inflation or monetary policy. In addition, the trade war from 2018 to 2019 tightened financial conditions enough to prompt the Federal Reserve to relax policy, believing that the monetary policy risks posed by tariffs are at least two-sided. (Golden Ten)