From November 13th to November 14th, Binance’s gainer list ushered in A group of long-lost faces, including DOT, FIL, SAND, MANA and other old kings of the previous bull market, are among them. After sitting on the bench for half a year, old altcoin holders finally felt the breath of the bull market. Driven by the collective surge of old altcoins, the money-making effect of this bull market has reached a phased climax, and market sentiment continues to be in a state of extreme greed (93-94). For a long time in the past, the compensatory rise of old altcoins was usually regarded as a signal that existing positions and optimism had peaked. Therefore, the compensatory growth of old altcoins has also triggered market concerns about adjustments.

After countless times Tortured by the roller coaster market, many investors have formed such ingrained bear market thinking that every time altcoins rise, their chips will rush to cash out. This is why the market is always highly vigilant about compensatory gains in altcoins. However, this round of altcoin market may be different from the past in two aspects.

First of all, from the 13th to the 14th, when altcoins often rose by more than 20%, the futures market The size of the liquidation of Zhongshan altcoin bulls was only US$67 million, which shows that the intention of the main players is more to sweep away goods rather than squeeze out shorts. At the same time, during the rise of altcoins, the futures positions and spot lending rates of altcoins have not increased significantly, which shows that the main short sellers still have no intention of building large-scale positions.

Secondly, unlike in the past when the market was pushed up by adding stocks, the market started in November In the past year, it was the month with the largest and fastest additional issuance of USDT, which means that the driving force for the market rise mainly comes from the entry of incremental funds.

Although the current copycat The currency market is more popular than on November 13, but the daily market trading volume is still maintained at about 300 billion U.S. dollars, which is far lower than the peak of 556 billion U.S. dollars set on November 13.value. The main reason for this phenomenon is that Bitcoin entered a sideways consolidation stage during the rise of altcoins, thereby easing the pressure of competition for liquidity on the market. Historically, when Bitcoin does not rise, the active market of altcoins is often the stage when the bull market has the most significant money-making effect. For example, in March 2021, Bitcoin entered a range-bound oscillation, and many currencies in sectors such as distributed storage, Metaverse, and Layer 2 all experienced increases of more than 10 times in a single month. If the fermentation of FOMO sentiment in each sector follows the path of "questioning - hesitation - hesitation - fear - buying", then the funds currently shorting altcoins are only in the hesitant stage.

As Bitcoin has repeatedly failed to hit $100,000, the market is gradually expecting a correction. It's heating up, with some even jokingly calling the possible adjustments "Thanksgiving discounts." However, from the current point of view, the trend of Bitcoin is still completely dominated by bulls.

First of all, MicroStrategy, as the "first bull in the universe", still holds US$3.7 billion in cash reserves on its books (of which US$3 billion is raised from convertible bonds), and there are still 153 unused quotas for immediate additional issuance. billion (as long as you give instructions to underwriters such as Barak Capital and TD Securities, you can immediately sell stocks through the secondary market to raise funds), which means that the bullets that can be used to increase your Bitcoin holdings in the future total US$19 billion. At the same time, under the leadership of MicroStrategy, more and more institutions and entities around the world have begun to join the wave of allocating Bitcoin. According to Coindesk, entities including MARA and MetaPlanet have purchased more than $1 billion in Bitcoin in the past week. As long as MSTR continues to buy Bitcoin, these entities will most likely continue to follow. Obviously, when bulls have enough bullets, once Bitcoin adjusts, it will inevitably trigger a counterattack by bulls.

Secondly, SoSoValue data shows that BlackRock Bitcoin A total of 354,000 spot ETF options were traded on the first trading day, with a nominal trading volume of US$1.86 billion. Among them, 288,700 are call options (Call) and 65,000 are put options (Put). The call/put ratio is 4.44. The market sentiment is almost one-sided and optimistic. Data shows that the option with the largest trading volume in the market is the long option expiring on January 17, 2024.The price range is US$55-60, and the corresponding Bitcoin price is US$97,000-105,000. In other words, the market is still optimistic that Bitcoin will exceed $100,000 before Trump takes office.

In summary, although market sentiment has been extremely greedy and technical indicators have become seriously overbought, shorting Still not a wise choice.

In terms of operation, if you follow the suggestions in the previous article DOT, ATOM, ICP, FIL, etc. are used as targets for building positions, and their returns last week basically exceeded the market average. After daily trading volume of US$300 billion becomes the norm, the direct beneficiaries of the market are undoubtedly DEX and CEX. At present, platform coins such as UNI, DYDX, and BNB have not yet performed significantly. Using them as a bottom position to prevent shortfalls is also a good defensive strategy.