Author: Kyle, crypto researcher; Compiled by: Felix, PANews

Since this bull market cycle starts in 2024 Since then, the cycle so far has been: January 10th BTC ETF launch → Until Bitcoin reaches all-time highs, fueling alt season, entering volatile Q2/Q3 of 2024, with Bitcoin trading at $50,000 and $6 The price continues to break above $90,000 and is currently hovering at $90,000.

It is worth noting that the altcoin season started when BTC reached its high point. In the first round, BTC moved toward $69,000, but failed to break through appropriately. , the next round is towards $100,000.

The next alt season is likely to be Bitcoin stabilizing at $100,000, hopefully in the first quarter of 2025. But the story of Q2/Q3 2024 may be playing out again in the coming months. Here are all the possible scenarios:

Scenario 1: BTC + altcoins generally rise . All the way up in 2025 and then into another alt season as BTC continues to rise and all coins are doing well and will repeat the past 2 months with everything rising (30-40% chance).

Strategy: Choose altcoins that perform well and buy them on dips.

Scenario 2: BTC rises, altcoins rise less; the story repeats itself in 2024, fluctuating up and down in the next few months, but less than in 2024 More bullish (because BTC goes up); so choose coins that perform well (50-60% probability).

Strategy: Buy on dips in selected altcoins. Avoid the high-profile tracks and find the next “quick-rich coin”

Scenario 3: BTC rises, altcoins generally fall (20-30% possibility).

Strategy: Sell all altcoins. Scale back your altcoin investments; if your altcoin holdings do not rise for a long time, you may have to sell them all.

Scenario 4: BTC falls, and altcoins generally fall. Everything has peaked (10-20% chance).

Because of macro favorable conditions, a new BTC ATH breakthrough may not take as long as 2024. In this hellish summer, the ETF has just launched and TradFi is still struggling to sell the BTC story to clients. Most importantly, the outside world generally does not believe in the importance of Bitcoin.

Now that Trump has won the election, discussions about strategic Bitcoin reserves are unfolding. Although the establishment of a strategic Bitcoin reserve is unlikely, Bitcoin’s The reputation has changed.

What matters is the narrative - indeed, the new regime we are in has brought new attention to the digital asset space, and now the next US president Talking about Bitcoin frequently makes it much easier to convince people to buy Bitcoin.

This regime change is extremely important. Therefore, BTC’s tailwind will continue in 2025. For altcoins, the situation is similar, but different.

Total3 (the total market capitalization trend of all altcoins) hit the first quarter of 2024 A new all-time high in 2021 and then a cycle high in the fourth quarter of 2024. It more or less follows the same pattern (scenario 1 and 2 above are not that different).

The key is positioning and timing. While bullish on 2025, there’s no telling how long it will take. While the rally in 2025 will likely come sooner than in 2024, altcoins can still fall significantly during periods without catalysts.

As long as the cycle is not over, stay long whether it is Bitcoin or altcoins. There won’t be a repeat of the summer of 2024 in 2025, and although we may have periods like now (just a plateau), prices will still hold up pretty well.

The situation on the chain is different. When the tide recedes, the chain can easily experience a 70% drop. Altcoins are not expected to peak at this time as it is not seen how BTC can continue to rise while altcoins “die” nor canTo BTC peaking here.

Conclusion:

BTC rises more than 2024

Altcoins are in a rising trend. Although there will be a decline, the intensity is not as strong as in 2024

Cycle top

It is nowhere near the top of the cycle, but must be continually reassessed on a weekly basis. A cycle top is not necessarily an "event" but more like a range that slowly approaches over time.

Bitcoin Reserve Plan Risks

With the beginning of a new presidential term, all Everyone will pay attention to what Trump says and does. While the positives for Bitcoin are there, it would be quite pessimistic if Trump completely ignored the reserve plan. A more likely scenario is that the reserve plan didn't happen/was delayed by something.

In the latter case: whenever it goes in favor of Bitcoin, it is initially a bearish but ultimately bullish event.

TLDR: Bullish signal = cycle continues. Bearish signal = plans must be modified. The cycle may continue, but the chances are lower.

Supply risk

The summer of 2024 experienced a crazy macro environment and the stock market hit new highs . However, as supply giants like Gox, Grayscale GBTC, and others have been hammered again and again, nothing good has been gained, only harm.

Supply risks can never be mitigated. There is always someone with a lot of Bitcoin - UK, Silk Road, FTX Distribution, etc. It's just something you have to keep an eye on, but if all goes well, these events are good bargain-hunting events.

Macro risks

The interest rate cut is expected to be smaller, although not so optimistic, but the fact is , as long as interest rates continue to fall, liquidity will improve. Again, bullish signal = cycle continues. Unless interest rates are raised/not lowered,Otherwise the macro should be favorable for digital assets.

The bearish signal is that inflation is rising again and the Fed may have to raise interest rates to reduce inflation.

1. AI

It has experienced several waves so far. The next wave is expected to arrive soon. Buying and holding won't end well. Goat, the coin that started it all, is down 60% from its highs and will likely continue to underperform.

Preferred: Applied Technology/Swarms/Games/Consumer-centered AI

ALCH (game development), Griffin (agent that helps control wallets), Digimon, Ai16z, etc. are top choices.

2. DeFi

DeFi will continue to be a great narrative, but it is very difficult to invest. Because few tokens can benefit from this, even if they benefit, they may not rise significantly.

Frankly speaking, DeFi is not the first choice in terms of risk reward.

First choice: AAVE / ENA / Morpho / Euler / USUAL

Second choice: Stablecoin / Pay related tokens

3. L1

L1 will make a comeback. The obvious one is Hype. L1 itself is something that the market has been ignoring - it's one of those areas that no one is paying attention to, but holds huge opportunity (just like Hype grew 10x).

First choice: SUI / Hype

Second choice: Abstract

4. NFT tokens and game tokens

NFTThe token space deserves attention. PENGU is slowly coming back, Azuki has the ANIME token, Doodles has...whatever it is. NFTs are not expected to have a renaissance, but their tokens will. Additionally, it’s fun to dig deeper and find interesting games that are about to launch tokens.

First choice: Pengu / Anime (Azuki) / Spellborne / Treeverse

Second choice: Prime / Off the grid (if the token launches) / Overworld

5. Other narratives

Data Token: Kaito/Arkm

Meme: PEPE

DePIN: PEAQ / HNT

Ordinals

Old DeFi: CRV/CVX

DePIN will be Some way implemented by a company, maybe an acquisition.

Binance will lose market share as the largest exchange. Not from Hyperliquid, but Bybit/OKX

Metaverse tokens get new life as VR makes new strides

ICO is great again

ETH chain copycat season will not happen

Sui reaches double digits (minimum $10)

Ethereum ETF staking is approved, resulting in more yield products for staking other tokens, as well as yield aggregators

A big-name artist uses NFTs and tokensTo maintain fans and reward them

Bitcoin reaches $200,000

More L1 institutions CEO/Founder of Aptos Labs CEO After leaving the original company（PANewsNote: 12month20 On Day, Aptos Labsco-founder Mo Shaikhresigned as CEO , co-founderAvery Chingwill take over)

Base loses the competition with L1s and another L1 takes over. Solana keep it up