Source: Vernacular Blockchain

Since Trump’s victory was “a foregone conclusion” in early November, the encryption market, especially Bitcoin, has entered into strong expectations of the “U.S. Bitcoin strategic reserve.” Obviously, the market will be highly focused on the implementation of this promise after Trump takes office in 2025. Some analysts bluntly say that this incident will break the Bitcoin bull-bear cycle. In other words, any "episode" in the future may cause the market to fluctuate. Violent turmoil. What we can do now is pay attention to its progress, estimate the possible landing time node in advance, and make corresponding preparations.

The matter of "Bitcoin Strategic Reserve" actually had relevant proposals and discussions before the US presidential election. Senator Cynthia Lummis proposed the "U.S. Bitcoin Strategic Reserve" as early as July 31, 2024. The BITCOIN Act of 2024 proposes to purchase 200,000 Bitcoins per year, reaching 1 million within five years.

Subsequently, during the campaign, Trump promised to become the "cryptocurrency president" in his speech at the Bitcoin Conference in the crypto industry. The industry hoped that he would fulfill his promise and create a bitcoin inventory through executive orders. Ensure the industry has access to banking services and create a cryptocurrency committee.

On December 17, 2024, Bitcoin Policy Institute (BPI) (note, unofficial organization, but a non-profit organization focusing on Bitcoin research, but it is still the decision-maker One of the important think tanks on Bitcoin-related issues) recently released a draft executive order, trying to provide reference opinions for Trump’s “Bitcoin Strategic Reserve” executive order framework. This draft clearly states that it is recommended that 1%-5% of national debt assets be used to purchase Bitcoin to form long-term reserves. Led by the Treasury Department and coordinated by the Federal Reserve, reserves are gradually established.

On December 19, 2024, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell (who is expected to continue to fulfill his duties after Trump takes office) expressed a cautious view at a press conference. Powell said that the Federal Reserve has no intention to participate in hoarding Bitcoin Such matters fall within the purview of Congress, and the Fed is not seeking to change existing laws to allow for the holding of Bitcoin.

Judging from the latest situation, despite the conservative views of the Chairman of the Federal Reserve, under favorable conditions such as Trump’s nomination of an encryption-friendly U.S. Treasury Secretary and the “Presidential Executive Order” issued quickly after taking office, None of this will affect the Trump team’s continued push to include Bitcoin in the U.S. strategic reserve.

Given that "Bitcoin Strategic Reserve" is not a small issue, it is not something that the President of the United States can implement immediately when his head is hot, so we will not We can immediately see its implementation. Judging from the current executive orders or legislative processes in the country, if Trump wants to implement the Bitcoin strategic reserve, he will ask the Cryptocurrency Committee to conduct it immediately after taking office.After the research and feasibility assessment are completed, the plan will be formally proposed, which can then be carried out through two paths:

Path 1: Presidential executive order (as soon as the second half of 2025)

Trump Directly issuing an executive order after taking office is the fastest way, because it can bypass conservative and opposition resistance from the Federal Reserve and Congress. It also refers to the draft provided by the "Bitcoin Research Institute", instructing the U.S. Treasury Department to use the Exchange Stabilization Fund ( ESF) configure Bitcoin directly.

However, although this method is quick and convenient, it also has side effects. Although the Ministry of Finance’s Exchange Stabilization Fund does not require congressional approval, it can be subject to congressional investigation and legislative restrictions. Executive orders can also be overturned and modified by the next president, so their durability and stability are not as good as legislation.

Path 2: Congressional legislation (as soon as the second half of 2026)

If a more stable legislative path is passed, a longer process will be required, and the cryptocurrency committee will conduct research and The bill after the feasibility assessment needs to be submitted to Congress and reviewed by the Senate Banking Committee, and then signed and passed by the Senate, House of Representatives and the President before the legislation can be officially completed.

This process may go through various back-and-forth and is relatively complicated. After all, many conservative members will definitely oppose and obstruct. Therefore, although a durable and stable bill can be obtained through this path, it still requires It will take a long time, at least from the second half of 2026 to 2027, to be possible.

Recent news is that the encryption industry is pushing Trump’s team to issue an executive order on his first day in office next month to launch his promised cryptocurrency reforms and help promote the mainstreaming of encryption and other matters, then If the executive order is passed, the Bitcoin strategic reserve may be implemented as soon as mid-2025.

During the “process” of administrative orders or bills related to the Bitcoin Strategic Reserve, the following time nodes may have a significant impact on the market:

1) January 20, 2025, before and after Trump’s inauguration

Trump will officially take office on this day. Starting from this time, Trump will officially start “giving orders.” This time point will mark the beginning of the new president's administration, and relevant trends may gradually emerge. Markets will be paying close attention to the inaugural address and the release of its early executive orders. Trump has invited many guests to this inauguration, which is expected to be quite lively, and financial markets will also pay close attention to it.

2) Complete the research phase in mid-2025

According to time estimates, the CryptoCommittee’s research will be completed in the first half to mid-year of 2025 at the earliest and will propose recommendations on Bitcoin reserves. Feasibility report and draft. Trump can then sign an executive order. Marking the official launch of the “Bitcoin Strategic Reserve”.

3) From the second half of 2025 to early 2026, implementation details and potential congressional pullPull

After the relevant executive orders are signed and the relevant frameworks are confirmed, the U.S. Treasury Department, the Federal Reserve and other relevant departments will begin to formulate specific implementation details, including Bitcoin procurement methods, reserve ratios, asset management rules, etc., and then begin Officially implemented.

During this period, it should not be too smooth, and opposition members of Congress will join in the obstruction and repeated obstruction.

Finally, if everything goes well and the Bitcoin reserve strategy brings objective "benefits", legislation may be further promoted in the future, which will have a profound impact on the crypto market landscape.

The road to "Bitcoin Strategic Reserve" seems to be full of twists and turns. It is not something that can be implemented in a day or two. It will take half a year at the earliest, but In any case, while Trump’s “U.S. Bitcoin Strategic Reserve” has brought good expectations, it has also “set a template” to drive central banks, financial institutions, and listed companies in various countries to conduct research and study on the feasibility of Bitcoin reserves. explore. Although there may still be many uncertainties in the details and final implementation time, we still need to follow up and pay attention to key time nodes and make adjustments at any time.