Source: Currency Trader

On December 24, just when most people thought that the adjustment was a foregone conclusion, when Bitcoin fell to $92,000, it was suddenly lifted by a mysterious force during the session, and then rebounded quickly. , up nearly 5%. So, what happened that caused funds to rush away early in the bargain hunting?

On December 24, the stock MSTR of MicroStrategy, the largest bull in the universe, was officially included in the Nasdaq 100 Index , which marks that Bitcoin, which was once regarded as an alternative asset, has officially entered the mainstream investment field. According to data disclosed by Bloomberg, there are currently more than 200 exchange-traded products (ETPs) tracking the Nasdaq 100 Index or its variants around the world, with total assets of approximately US$540 billion. The weight of MSTR in the Nasdaq 100 is 0.47, which means that MSTR will receive $2.5 billion in passive buying in the future.

Just before MSTR was included in the Nasdaq 100 Index, on October 23, MicroStrategy submitted to U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission Exchange Commission (SEC) filings show the company is seeking approval to increase the authorized number of Class A common and preferred shares. It is worth noting that when the application was submitted, MicroStrategy still had $7.08 billion in immediate issuance quota unused. Such eagerness to expand the scale of financing indicates that MicroStrategy cannot wait to start a new round of Bitcoin purchases. Considering that MicroStrategy will enter a two-week to one-month lock-up period in mid-January next year, its holdings are likely to be intensively implemented in the near future. This will undoubtedly affect the cycle and magnitude of this round of adjustments, and even lead to an early rebound in currency prices. . Therefore, there is a high probability that the bottom of this round of adjustment will be higher than the previously predicted $88,000, and the adjustment is also likely to end before January 20.

During the period of market shock and adjustment, the CEX platform currency performed brilliantly. The platform coins of almost all mainstream exchanges have bucked the trend and have risen. Among them, the second-tier platform coins represented by BGB and GT have reached record highs. Fund selectionThere are two main considerations for choosing the CEX platform currency to break through: 1. It is generally believed that "short-term adjustment will not change long-term bullishness", and the "bull market standard bearer" is still the sector with the highest certainty. 2. In a differentiated situation, the solid fundamentals of platform coins can still support their growth against the trend. Calculated based on the Q1-Q3 destruction data, the current PE of BNB and OKB is only 13 times and 15 times, which are far lower than most traditional securities companies. Although Q4 data has not yet been released, if measured based on market transaction volume, the quarter-on-quarter revenue growth rate of most exchanges can reach more than three digits (the top DeFi basically increased by 5-10 times). Therefore, before the Q4 data is released, the author believes that leading platform coins such as BNB and OKB still have opportunities for valuation restoration.

However, low valuation has the advantages of low valuation, and low valuation also has the disadvantages of low valuation. Although investing in low-valued platform coins has a high margin of safety, when the cash flow and growth of the entire sector can be clearly predicted, this sector loses room for imagination. Therefore, platform currency investment is only suitable for prudent investors with low requirements for excess returns.

Recently, there has been a wave of AI Agent hype in the blockchain field. Judging from market performance, the direction of fund speculation is mainly concentrated in two areas: one is AI DAO, exploring intelligent investment auxiliary tools and interesting meme currency issuance models, representative projects such as Ai16z; the other is building open AI systems (games, Metaverse, social, etc.) incentive layer, representing projects such as Virtual. However, most of these projects remain in the hype concept stage, and there is still a long way to go before the ultimate goal of AI Agents realizing autonomous perception of the environment, learning, decision-making and executing tasks. Compared with leading projects such as ARKM, RENDER, and TAO in the previous round of AI market, the current round of AI+ projects appear simple and vague. Therefore, the author does not believe that the current hot projects truly represent AI Agents in the blockchain field.

If you want to pick out potential directions, the author believes that the development of the AI ​​incentive layer is more in line with the blockchain The core value of the chain. After all, the core value of blockchain lies in data, and the basis of intelligent learning and decision-making also relies on data. Blockchain provides a unique advantage for the development of AI - a decentralized and incentivized ecosystem that allows developers and users to jointly participate in the construction and optimization of AI systems.

In the blockchainWith the empowerment of AI, the evolution of AI is no longer limited to the control of a few giants or centralized platforms, but can be jointly promoted by participants around the world. Each participant can contribute their own ideas, data or algorithms through the incentive mechanism of the blockchain, thereby promoting the continuous optimization and innovation of the system. For example, to make AI companions have more natural and emotional interaction capabilities, traditional algorithm training and data collection alone are obviously not enough. AI companions need to continuously learn and evolve through real-time interaction with users, and this interaction is not just technical training, it also includes the user's emotions, creativity and expression. Developers can contribute new emotion recognition algorithms, users can use their behavioral data and language input to help AI understand and respond to emotions more accurately, and creators can design more creative interaction methods and personalized functions. Through the incentive mechanism of the blockchain, these contributions will receive fair returns and promote the continuous upgrading and improvement of the AI ​​system.

In general, the combination of blockchain and AI Agent mainly plays an enabling role. With the help of blockchain, an open, fair and transparent platform, it can fully stimulate the enthusiasm of all participants in the ecosystem, ensure that their achievements are protected to the greatest extent, and provide them with effective monetization channels. If you have to stand out among the dwarves, I believe that Virtual's narrative potential will be significantly stronger than Ai16z.

In terms of operation, although the market has entered an adjustment period, the remaining heat of the bull market still exists. Funds will continue to choose the right direction to break out, and the market will never lack trading opportunities. For prudent investors, top platform coins are a good choice. For speculators who are keen on emotional gaming, AI Agent is undoubtedly the direction with higher odds. ‍‍‍‍‍‍