Author: Kyle Source: @0xKyle's Research Translation: Shan Ouba, Golden Finance

Although it is difficult to predict future, but as traders and investors we need to have a plan. This plan, like all plans, adjusts as market fundamentals change—the market is an ever-evolving creature. This memo is just my vision of where the market will be in 2025, based on where we are today. This is an entry point into my thinking about 2025 and should not be taken as financial advice.

Let’s first review my 2024 plan.

2024 Plan Review

Gosh, I made a lot of mistakes in my 2024 plan; let’s look at the forecasts piece by piece:

1. Bitcoin halving is an insignificant event

I remember many people are discussing this issue—— Is the halving “realizing all the good things and taking out all the bad things”? Although historically "buy news," the end result is just a run-of-the-mill event that marks the beginning of a bull market.

2. Interest rate cuts are bad

This is obviously wrong, but I have to do it for myself Defense - I had publicly changed my position before the rate cut. The initial assumption was that "inflation is stubborn and the rate cut will occur after economic data deteriorates significantly, so it is a reactive response rather than a preventive measure."

But it turns out that the Fed This assumption is shattered. The correct attitude in 2024 is: act directly in accordance with the Fed's statements.

3. Scenario planning

The core content of my 2024 plan is: "After cutting interest rates Risk control a certain percentage of the portfolio, then buy back when prices are lower, while retaining the remaining position. ”

I have no idea what I’m talking about. What, because I didn't do any of this.

Ultimately, the market in 2024 is a completely different "monster" - ETThe market experienced an initial sell-off after the launch of F, followed by a rise in the first quarter, followed by a lull in the summer, and interest rate cuts had a stimulating effect on stocks, but the crypto market was still hovering in the $50,000-60,000 range until the eventual election. Become a real hot spot.

My biggest mistake was not emphasizing that 2024 is the year when Bitcoin will gradually penetrate into traditional institutions. What am I thinking? This may be the most important thing in 2024 - Bitcoin is gradually and steadily accepted by the traditional financial field.

4. The market narrative I mentioned:

ETF beneficiaries: COIN (stocks )/BTC/ETH

I also mentioned tokens like STX and TRAC, but they didn’t perform well. But COIN is a great option. At the time of writing, it was probably around $120.

The short-term narrative of BRC-20 and LST did not last long, but it is indeed a good trading opportunity in the first quarter of 2024.

SOL

At the time of writing, the SOL price was $60! Man, this is one of the trades I'm most proud of - I originally wrote this prediction at $20. The title is even a little funny: "SOL will reach triple digits in the next cycle." The results completely came true.

But the TIA/Aptos/Layer 2 related narrative underperformed most of 2024.

Regulation and product market fit

This narrative direction is correct, but the choice The coin is completely wrong. My thinking at the time was: "DeFi projects that can pass regulatory tests, but products that have not yet demonstrated clear market fit."

What was I thinking? I chose MMX and dYdX.

I also mentioned HYPERLIQUID. I really wish I had followed my own advice and participated in mining more. Although I was an early adopter of HYPERLIQUIDOne of the users, but I didn't realize its importance until it was too late.

Decentralized AI

This is really complicated. I was once very bullish on this track, but turned extremely bearish at the market top in the first quarter of 2024, because I found that the actual product was completely different from what I imagined. Projects like Render and Akash have few real use cases and look more like air projects. Although I am very interested in AI narrative now, it did feel empty at the time.

TAO cost 300 US dollars when I wrote the article, but it has probably doubled now? Forget about OLAS, I don’t want to mention it more.

GameFi 2.0

This direction is good. This is a money-making trade I made in 2024. There is a small window in the first quarter of 2024. BEAM prices have risen sharply, and many GameFi-related assets have performed well (such as Pirate NFT). Prime is also a good choice.

Of course, you must sell at the top, otherwise you will have lost a lot now. I didn't sell much, but overall the trade was profitable.

Popular choices: Overworld / Treeverse / Prime / L3E7 - Overworld token increased from 5ETH to 15ETH, Treeverse land increased from 0.2ETH to 1ETH, L3E7 increased from 3ETH It rose to 14ETH (but I lost money back later).

BLUR-related narrative performance is average.

Other potential narratives:

•dePIN/RWAs

•deSci

•Meme Coin (BONK / DOGE / PEPE / HPOS10INU)

•RUNE / CACAO

•GambleFi

•Airdrop (LayerZero / Starknet / ZKSync)

Not a lot of bright spots here, except for memecoins - they really exploded in the first quarter of 2024. Bonk has increased two to three times since I wrote the article. dePIN (like Geodenet/Helium) also had a brief moment of glory, but I didn’t pay much attention to it. DeSci became popular a few months ago, especially after BIO was listed on Binance... but to be honest, I don't like this track.

5. Cycle top

I wrote at the end of the article: "One thing I What I haven't talked about yet is how I think this cycle will end - recently, I have become more and more sympathetic to GCR's view: 'The top of the last cycle is when funds enter, and the top of the next cycle is to start buying.'"

Looking back now, with the benefit of hindsight – oh my god, I feel like I’m going to put this point directly into my 2025 plan. This is definitely an important part of my list of “Top Signals of the Cycle” and it does make a lot of sense.

2025 Plan

Now that the 2024 review is complete, let’s get straight to the point. As usual, I will talk about macro and scenario planning first, and then talk about thematic narrative.

Scenario planning

The cycle of 2024-?? has begun. I think the cycle starts at the end of 2023, but it's just a matter of details. The cycle so far is:

•January 10th – Bitcoin ETF launched

•Subsequently, Bitcoin hit a new all-time high, triggering the altcoin season (altszn)

•The market fluctuated in the second and third quarters of 2024, with Bitcoin reaching 50,000 Fluctuating between US$60,000

•On the day of the election, it broke through a record high, soaring all the way to US$100,000, but failed to break through, and then fluctuated around US$90,000

It is important to note that altcoin seasons or "good times" all begin with Bitcoin's rise, the first phase was when Bitcoin rose to $69,000 but failed to break out, The second stage is the rush to $100,000.

The next altcoin cycle may begin when Bitcoin solidly breaks through $100,000. I don’t have a crystal ball, and while I hope this is what happens in the first quarter of 2025, the reality is that the next few months may be a repeat of the shock period of the second and third quarters of 2024 - and I have to be prepared. Therefore, I have laid out the following scenarios:

Scenario 1: Bitcoin and Altcoins Both up

The upswing continues in 2025, we have another altcoin season, Bitcoin continues to rise, all coins perform well, and the market returns to the past two The grand occasion of "thousands of coins rising" every month.

Probability: 30-40%

Coping strategy: Buy on dips (BTFD) , focusing on strong altcoins.

Scenario 2: Bitcoin rises, altcoins rise less

Market repeats 2024 , altcoins will rise and fall in the next few months, with large fluctuations; but the overall market is more optimistic than in 2024 (because Bitcoin continues to rise), and some areas have performed well.

Probability: 50-60%

Coping strategy: Buy selected copycats on dips currency, avoid areas of excessive concern, and look for the next hot spots in the market.

Scenario 3: Bitcoin rises, altcoins fall

Bitcoin continues to strengthen, but Altcoins generally fell, and the market ushered in an altcoin top.

Probability: 20-30%

Coping strategy: Sell all altcoins. If altcoins stop rising, it may be necessary to liquidate them all, even if it means taking some losses.

Scenario 4: Bitcoin and altcoins both fall

The market as a whole peaks and everything falls.

Probability: 10-20%

I believe that Bitcoin will break through to a record high in 2025 The pace will not be as slow as in 2024 because the macro backdrop is already in place. The Bitcoin ETF has just been launched in the summer of 2024, and traditional financial institutions (TradFi) are still promoting Bitcoin to customers. More importantly, the world had not fully recognized the importance of Bitcoin at that time.

But things are different now. With Trump back in power and even news of establishing a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (SBR), the market narrative has shifted. I won't speculate on the actual probability of SBR - I have no experience in areas where finance intersects.

What I focus on is narrative. The fact is that the current new currency is driving the digital asset field to gain more attention, and now that the President of the United States frequently talks about Bitcoin, it is easier to get people to buy Bitcoin than in the past.

This regime change is an extremely important market signal. Therefore, I believe Bitcoin will continue to benefit from macro tailwinds in 2025. When it comes to altcoins, the situation is similar but slightly different.

In the first quarter of 2024, the total market value (Total3) hit a historical high in 2021 , reaching a cycle high again in the fourth quarter of 2024. The market basically follows a similar pattern, so I don't think the difference between Scenario 1 and Scenario 2 is huge.

The key lies in position management and timing. I am optimistic about 2025, but not sure when the increase will occur. I think the market’s “all up, no down” phase will arrive sooner than 2024, but altcoins could still fall without a catalyst.

As long as the cycle does not peak, I will remain net long, whether in Bitcoin or other assets. I don’t think 2025 will be a repeat of the summer of 2024, but the market could still experience a similar downturn where prices remain stable but the market lacks a clear catalyst.

ChainOn-chain assets are different from the mainstream market. On-chain assets tend to fall by 70% when the market ebbs. Therefore, the goal is always to sell when on-chain attention is highest, get back into the mainstream altcoins (top 20), and then gradually reinvest.

I don’t think altcoins will peak at the moment because I can’t imagine Bitcoin continuing to rise while altcoins plummet. Bitcoin is also unlikely to peak at this time.

Summary

•Bitcoin continues to rise, rising more than 2024

•Altcoins – stay on the offensive, know when to switch to defensive, but less defensive than in 2024

Risk

1. Cycle top risk

The top of a cycle is often a self-fulfilling prophecy. While I don't think we are near the top of the cycle right now, this requires continued evaluation on a weekly basis. The top of a cycle is not necessarily a definite “event” but more of a process that gradually approaches it over time.

2. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (SBR) risks

With the new president taking office, Everyone will pay attention to his movements. Despite the positive factors facing Bitcoin, it would be a negative sign if the president completely ignores Bitcoin. For me personally, the biggest risk is that SBR may be forgotten, or more likely, SBR may not be implemented at all and other measures may be pursued instead.

If the latter happens (that is, a different replacement SBR), it may be negative in the short term, but as long as the new SBR is friendly to Bitcoin, it will still be positive in the end.

In short:

•Positive signal = cycle continues

< p style="text-align: left;">•Bad signal = Plan needs to be revised, the cycle may continue, but the probability is low.

3. Supply risk

In the summer of 2024, we experienced an extreme macro environment. The stock market has hit new highs. However, we did not enjoy a similar rally in the crypto market, but instead came under the weight of massive sell-offs from the likes of Mt. Gox, Germany and Grayscale GBTC.

Supply risks cannot be avoided. There are always institutions or institutions holding large amounts of Bitcoin - UK, Silk Road, FTX Debt Distribution, etc. These events require continued attention, but if all goes well for the market, they are often good bargain-hunting opportunities.

4. Macro risks

Although the rate cut is smaller, an interest rate cut is still an interest rate cut. Although the stimulus is low, liquidity will improve as long as interest rates continue to fall.

•Good signal = cycle continues

•As long as interest rates are not raised or interest rates are stopped, the macro The environment is good for digital assets.

The real negative signal is that inflation is back, and the Federal Reserve is forced to raise interest rates to curb inflation.

Topics and Tokens

Now enter the part that interests you most. But before I get into that, let me say it again – “stay on offense, but know when to switch to defense.” During this cycle, actively managed portfolios will perform far better than passive holdings.

The old days of "buy and hold and it goes up forever" are over.

In 2024, Solana's performance will be the same as Bitcoin's throughout the year, despite a 10-fold surge in 2023. Popular tokens such as TAO have not enjoyed the dividends of the recent AI wave. The memecoin craze is also fading – Dogecoin (DOGE) has lost its hat, the little chill guy is no longer cool, and Hippo (PEPE) looks like it’s out of its depth.

Probably none of the tokens on this list will make you "buy and hold."

It is important to consider who the potential buyers are. There are three main types of marginal buyers in the crypto market:

1. Institutional investors (TradFi)

2. Funds (encrypted native or liquid funds)

3. Speculators (perpetual contract traders, on-chain players, etc.)< /p>

For a narrative to become a hot spot in the market, it must attract at least one type of buyer

1. Artificial Intelligence (AI)

Yes, this track is still there. But as the tweet shows, we have experienced several waves of AI craze. If you have read my analysis on AI tokens, I believe that a new wave of craze is coming.

• Macro path: Hype → Infrastructure → Practical application

• Micro path: Retail investors Follow the trend → Basic layer (infra) → Applications and virtual humans

Standing still will not bring good results. Goat, the leading AI token, has retraced 60% from its highs and is likely to continue to underperform the market.

Recommended tokens:

•Application layer technology/swarm intelligence/games/consumer-oriented AI projects

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•ALCH (game development), Griffin (smart wallet agent), Digimon, and Ai16z are all projects I am optimistic about. There are many other tokens worthy of attention, but these are the key points.

2. DeFi

Needless to say, DeFi is still a good track, but it is extremely difficult to invest, and there are very few tokens that can really benefit. It may not rise (look at the LST track)

The risk-reward ratio is not high, but I think the DeFi track will continue to grow in 2025.

Recommended proxy. Coin: AAVE / ENA / Morpho / Euler / USUAL

Subline: stable currency/payment token

3. Layer 1 public chain track

I know this may be controversial, but I believeXinL1 public chain trading will return again in a big way. Sui went from $1 to $2 and now to $4, despite the market being very negative towards it. But this is what the market ignores, and it often contains huge opportunities (Hype has already increased 10 times).

Recommended token: SUI/Hype

Subline: Abstract

< p style="text-align: left;">I am not very interested in Monad and Berachain, but I am looking forward to Abstract, which may be a hit. 4. NFT Tokens & Game Currency (Second Round)

I like this track very much. I recently bought some gaming projects, and I think the NFT token track is worth paying attention to. Pengu is back on the rise, Azuki has launched the $ANIME token, and Doodles is up to something. I don’t think NFTs themselves will come back, but NFT tokens will.

Game tokens are also interesting, and Off-The-Grid proves that it is possible to develop an interesting game. With the market's negative attitude towards gaming currencies, this is a good time to dig deeper and find truly interesting gaming projects and their tokens.

Recommended tokens: Pengu/ANIME (Azuki)/Spellborne/Treeverse

Subline : Prime / Off-The-Grid (if the token is launched) / Overworld

5. Other narratives

These tracks are on my watch list, although they are not counted Favorite, but interesting:

• Data Token: Kaito / Arkm

• Meme Coin: Only optimistic about PEPE, others are cool了

• DePIN: PEAQ / HNT

•Inscriptions (Ordinals)

• Established leading brands: XRP, etc.

• Old DeFi: CRV/CVX

2025 Forecast

This section is purely entertainment, all Some ideas that sound a bit outrageous but not completely impossible.

•DePIN (Decentralized Physical Infrastructure Network) is officially implemented by a formal large company, and may even be realized through acquisition.

•Binance lost its leading position among exchanges, not because it was surpassed by Hyperliquid, but because Bybit or OKX took over.

•Metaverse tokens are given a new lease of life because of breakthroughs in VR technology.

•ICO is making a comeback and becoming popular again.

•ETH On-Chain Szn will not happen.

•Sui breaks double digits (at least $10).

•Ethereum staking income has been approved to be included in ETFs, triggering more staking income products for other tokens, and income aggregators will also become popular again, just like in 2021 Same year.

•A top artist uses NFT and tokens to interact with fans, track and reward fan groups.

•Bitcoin rises to $200,000.

•The CEOs/founders of multiple L1 public chain projects have resigned one after another, similar to the Aptos phenomenon.

•Base lost its on-chain competitive advantage and was replaced by another L1 public chain, while Solana continued to maintain its lead.

Conclusion

This article roughly summarizes my market layout for 2025. As planned for 2024, I expect that many of these views and strategies may change significantly.

The most important advice here is: stay flexible, be like water, and enjoy the market journey. The market will continue to change, and that’s part of the game.As the famous saying goes:

"A person can never step into the same river twice, because the river is no longer the river of yesterday, and the person is no longer the same river as yesterday. People.”

I wish you all good luck and a safe journey. Hope to see you in the next cycle. If you make a life-changing profit along the way, remember – let it truly change your life.