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Bitcoin bottomed out overnight and returned to above 98K. Before writing the article, I happened to turn to the daily data posted by the assistant in the member group. In the past three days, Bitcoin ETFs had outflows of nearly 1.2 billion U.S. dollars, with a single-day net outflow of 338 million U.S. dollars. On the contrary, Ethereum became a net inflow, with $53.54 million coming in. A bit fantasy.

Speaking of this, many people are cursing at Ethereum, which has been unable to break through 4K. Even the summary of Massari's 24-25 industry report was specially opened One chapter condemned Ethereum, saying that Solana was too tight-lipped, too old, and had no new ideas. Anyway, it distributed a lot of bad news. Then I casually scanned it and didn’t look at it. I suggest that everyone don’t look at it either.

What is the real situation? Putting aside the development of the Ethereum ecosystem in recent years, what is the situation purely based on price? I was still talking about this in the member group today as a joke:

"At the end of December 2020, that is, 4 years ago, the main rise of the crypto bull market has begun. The price of Bitcoin is 29,000 U.S. dollars, which is about 145% of the highest point of the last bull market. The price of Ethereum is 760u, which is 760u. ox At present, another round of halving bull market has begun. The price of Bitcoin is 98,000, which is 142% of the highest point of the last bull market. The price of Ethereum is 3,500u, which is 71.8% of the highest point of the last cycle." p>

The data is here. Not only is Ethereum not pulling its weight, it is actually stronger than the previous year. It’s just that as the market value increases, the multiple of this round will most likely be smaller than the multiple of the previous round. It’s that simple. Many people make investment decisions based on their heads, relying solely on their feelings. This is vague, and that is vague. How can they do it well?

Even in Solana, which is highly recognized by everyone as being strong, I think most people have not actually made any money. They are all listening to this and that, constantly switching positions, moving around, and the coins are getting less and less. Finally, they come to ask for guidance, asking me whether this coin can still be saved, and whether that coin can still be saved?

There is a high probability that it is hopeless. I am not talking about coins, but people. Don't think too highly of me. We are all retail investors. It's just that I may have a little more money, but the essence is the same. The concepts and resources of retail investorsThe market impact is almost zero.

Don’t believe it? Let me show you some more data. From December 11th to December 18th, the number of Bitcoin holding addresses increased by 103,000. Looking at the K-line, the worst decline was in this short period of time. Why? The largest increase in these addresses is the address holding 0~0.01 coins. The cumulative increase in the number of Bitcoins is only 373.59, and the current value is US$36 million. At the same time, the top ten addresses decreased by one, and the number of Bitcoins decreased by 46,078; the addresses holding 1,000 to 10,000 coins decreased by 19, and the number of Bitcoins decreased by 29,124.

It is the big players who decide the market, which is the reason for the decline. But the reason why it can’t fall is that there are also large investors taking over. The number of addresses holding 100 to 1,000 coins has increased by 138, and the number of coins held has increased by 90,000.

Retail investors are really unstable in this market and don’t have much money on their hands. The trump card can be played, but it cannot withstand the torment. In the last round of bull-bear transition, a friend spent 6 million to buy the bottom. I said buy Bitcoin and Ethereum. Now that the price is going crazy, I have to congratulate someone and show me some saints by the way. When I asked, I still lost 820,000 yuan. I was surprised and asked about it, and then I understood.

The reason is that first I didn’t buy enough U and only bought 1.5 million. Then I didn’t listen to everything and only bought 500,000 ETH. Then I concentrated on studying various alpha opportunities and the second-layer ecosystem of Bitcoin. TON ecology, Solana & meme, LSD, the rest are basically lost. It is said that I still have 500,000 ETH to make a profit. I am constantly hearing all kinds of rumors and news, constantly switching positions, and the operations are as fierce as a tiger... .

Of course, there are many people who are willing to follow my advice and guidance. In the bear market, we relied on our strategy and made drastic adjustments to our chips. We exchanged a lot of Bitcoins and are now comfortable. It is very comfortable and will be more comfortable in the future.

Many people like to brag, "I have made a lot of money on small coins by relying on my knowledge." In fact, it is luck. People who know enough You will definitely choose Bitcoin. Not to mention some KOLs and bloggers who don’t understand. I have met with several top OGs in the past few days. They have made a lot of money and started funds. They have far more industry resources and insider information than us. In the end, no one ran away. Winning Bitcoin.

Earlier, I talked with a top VC in Shanghai, I won’t mention his name. themThe investment research report produced is very forward-looking, saying that if the ETF is approved in this round, it will bring at least US$30B in incremental funds to Bitcoin. This is a very powerful judgment. However, the problem is that they chose the second layer of Stud Bitcoin. They are really not stupid, because if they only buy Bitcoin and have no explanation to the LP, after all, they can buy it themselves.

As a result, many institutions have invariably stopped emphasizing return rates. On the one hand, they have never run into Bitcoin, and they have no shame to say it; on the other hand, it may cause LPs to have the mentality of "I might as well buy Bitcoin myself"... So VCs are all saying "support innovation", " Witness the future of the future" Balabala....

The projects that are then invested are all locked up, and the first ones are market makers and project developers. , airdrop party. If you want to use the Internet style of play, you will be harvested extremely miserably, especially third- and fourth-rate VCs, who are completely bullied. It’s not over yet. The VC company has no business, so I started to speculate in coins, play MEME, play this and that, and lose as much as a leek...

So, if you want to speculate in coins and play small coins, it is very difficult for these VCs. Why do retail investors take heavy positions? Apart from Bitcoin and Ethereum, if you want to make money, you have to spend more than ten hours a day in the encryption industry, and you must have your own analytical skills. Many people have their own jobs and don't have that much time. The best way is to allocate Bitcoin and have a little money left to copy the homework from people who can get the results. This does not waste the dividends of the early industry.