Author: NingNin Source: X, @0xNing0x

1. Summary

Messari's 190-page report is composed of the current situation of encryption (macro environment, institutional status, where the users are) + track analysis (Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, Alt L1s +infra, DeFi, AlxCrypto, DePin, Consumer, CeFi) + Analyst Choice Award consists of three parts.

Messari’s core analysis frameworks include: block space economics, ecological map valuation framework, narrative economics, Schumpeterian innovation theory, etc.

Report original text link: https://messari.io/report/the-crypto-theses-2025

< p style="text-align: left;">2. Macro-environment

1. Economic environment and regulatory environment

Messari, after reviewing major events in the 2024 macro environment, predicted the changing trends of the U.S. economic environment and encryption regulation in 2025.

2025 is destined to be a critical year for U.S. encryption reform. FIT21 and the Stablecoin Act are the most eye-catching major regulatory legislative cases in the market and will promote the global encryption regulatory framework. Transparency and standardization.

Different from the optimistic views of ETF stakeholders such as VanEck, Messari cautiously believes in the possibility of a reversal of Trump Crypto in the report.

But in any case, it will be friendlier than Biden's encryption.

Comment: Messari’s macro environment analysis does not have any special insights, the level is average, and it is not as professional as the macro analysts on Twitter. This part is mainly The function is to round up the number of pages.

Looking forward to the market trend in 2025, many institutions and Messari is consistent:

That is, the market trend in 25 years will be a Banana ForScale, with a new high in the first half of Q1, a substantial adjustment in Q2, and recovery in Q3 and Q4 for the whole year. new high.

2. What are institutions doing?

In 2024, institutions are applying for and operating the main battlefield Bitcoin/ETH spot ETF and promotion of RWA (mainly tokenization of U.S. debt) business. Events such as Paypal's launch of the stablecoin PYUSD, Stripe's acquisition of the stablecoin company Bridge, and other events have made the boundaries between financial technology, payment and cryptocurrency begin to blur.

In terms of investment, institutions adopt a barbell strategy composed of Al and DePin. The total financing of these two sectors has increased by approximately 100% and 300% respectively compared with last year. .

Incoming AI and crypto czar David Sacks is an investor in Solana, Helium, Render and Hivemapper. It is expected that the United States will seriously consider cooperation with the DePin project in 2025.

Comment: The main theme of AIxCrypto next year will most likely be Web3AIAgent. Capital- and talent-intensive heavy industry AlxCrypto projects such as Al democratization and AGI need to make adaptive adjustments in the face of huge changes in the environment.

DePin is the favorite of North American institutions this year, and they are particularly interested in high-quality data collection DePin and new energy DePin. One of Solana’s strategies in 2025 is still to ensure that DePin happens at Solana.

3. Where are the users on the chain?

Messari quoted A16Z’s report, 220 million Approximately 30 million to 60 million of the active addresses are real monthly active users.

Users are mainly distributed in Phantom wallet, stable currency, Telegram applet, Polymark prediction market, Base and Hyperliquid.

Messari believes that 25-year chainThe growth of online users will come more from the product power of Dapp, rather than the Bitcoin ATH news event or the legendary story of MeMe coin getting rich. So it's very Bullish in 25 years of adoption of chain abstractions and aggregation front-ends.

Comment: 25 years will be a turning year for Web3 from the "fat protocol" era to the "fat application" era. APPChain/chain abstraction will be built for Dapp Mainstream paradigm.

The biggest regret at the application layer in 2024 is that Polymark successfully broke through but converted very few crypto users. It is hoped that the 25-year chain abstract super APP can successfully sell crypto-native stablecoin services, high-interest staking financial management, and cyber lottery MeMe coins to consumers, and realize a super phenomenon-level Dapp that is both popular and popular.

3. Track analysis

The essence of Messari’s annual outlook report is in this part. This is one of the best windows into our view of the North American institutional industry.

--Bitcoin

Messari focused on discussing inscriptions/runes and Bitcoin programmability Sex, BTC Staking.

Inscriptions/runes will be revived under the stimulation of the Fat Penguin Consumer Chain mainnet launch, OpenSea currency issuance, and NFT Renaissance.

The engineering of BitVM2, the key to Bitcoin programmability, will make progress.

BTC Staking has inherent disadvantages compared to ETH Staking, and the higher economic security of Bitcoin ReStaking's AVS cannot effectively convince users to use it. The focus of the BTCStaking project in 25 years should still be on increasing the penetration rate of BTC Holders.

--Ethereum

Last year, Messari was the flagship Anti-Ethereum. This year’s attitude is much milder, acknowledging the transcendent status of ETH spot through ETF. At the same time, it was pointed out that after the Cancun upgrade, Ethereum’s Blob pricing mechanism caused L1 to be unable to effectively capture L2’s DA fees. This is becauseThe main reason for Ethereum’s collapse in 24 years of competition.

Ethereum’s native narratives/products at the application layer, such as Friends Technology, Farcaster, Lens Protocol and Eigen Layer AVS, etc., have not been successful.

But Messari believes that fee income is not the most important indicator to measure the value of L1, but the ecological map is. From this perspective, Ethereum is still the best L1 ecosystem.

Comment: In 25 years, Ethereum will depend on whether it can incubate high-performance parallel EVML1 (Monad)/L2 (MegaETH) comparable to Solana.

--Solana

Solana’s key milestone events in 24 years have the lightweight Firedancer client Level solution Frankendancer, new SPL token standard, state compression solution ZKCompression.

Key milestones for Solana in 25 years will include the release of Firedancer client, wider adoption of prediction market governance protocol MetaDAO, and new large-scale DePin projects based on Solana , AlAgentSummer occurs in Solana/Base and SOL spot ETF passes.

Comment: There is no super cycle in meme coins, and the popularity of cyber lottery is a special phenomenon in a special period. The Solana ecosystem must prepare for a rainy day and diversify in time to get rid of its heavy reliance on MeMe coins in 25 years.

--AltL L1s +infra

Monad and Sonic will join Solana and Sui in 25 High-performance monolithic L1 competition. (3,3) BeraChain driven by the token economic model will also launch the mainnet.

There will be a serious excess of block space in 25 years, and the voice of Dapp developers will be further enhanced. They will no longer be restricted by the ideology of the crypto community and will be able to make more money. Freedom to build consumer-facing use cases.

After the Cancun upgrade, Ethereum's "Seven Injury Fist" has brought the DA narrative of modular public chains to an end. Celestia and Avail have begun to transform into a global cross-chain interoperability coordination layer.

The next generation of L2 with high performance + AltVMs such as Mega and UniChain will also reach the battlefield.

Avalanche ushered in the largest mainnet upgrade in history, Avalanche9000. This upgrade will bring significant performance improvements. Starting with Avalanche Interchain Messaging (AlM), it will build a liquidity center with the C chain as the center. Avalanche Ecology 25 It will have outstanding performance in RWA and Web3 games (represented by off the grid).

Cosmos’ 25-year outlook is still uncertain, and when the Interchain Foundation (ICF) will truly take control of coordination is a key checkpoint. ICF’s acquisition of Skip Protocol earlier this month may accelerate this process.

< p style="text-align: left;">Initia, another giant project in the Cosmos ecosystem, focuses on APPChain interoperability and ecological role benefits, and will also join the ranks of new powerful providers of block space in 25 years. < /p>

25-year-old chain abstraction protocols such as @ParticleNtwrk are accelerating from narrative to productization. Chain abstraction is not a single technology, but a cross-chain bridge, messaging platform, intent infrastructure, ZK proof aggregator , a combination of technical primitives such as shared sequencers.

Comments: When analyzing the Alt L1s +infra project, the explanatory power of block space economics is unparalleled. < /p>

--DeFi

When the PerpDEX trading volume/CEX ratio will catch up with the spot DEX trading volume/CEX ratio has always been the focus of DeFi enthusiasts The emergence of Hyperliquid has rekindled everyone’s hope.

Another focus is how to balance vertical integration and composability when building a DeFi protocol. Trade Off.

The current structure of RWA is still based on the tokenization of U.S. debt. In 25 years, RWA will have two main lines: tokenizing U.S. debt DAO idle assets and exporting on-chain yields to the traditional capital market.

In terms of points Fi, Pendle occupies a unique and key ecological position

In terms of anti-MEV, in addition to FlashBot's market game model, CowSwap's intention architecture appears.

--Al x Crypto

< p style="text-align: left;">Messari divides AlxCrypto into four types: decentralized computing network, coordination platform, AI tools and services, and applications. Of course, Messari also pays attention to AlAgentKOL and AIAgent. MeMe coin.

Messari predicts that major events worthy of attention in AIxCrypto in 25 years include: Bittensor and Dynamic TAO becoming the new AI project currency factory, Prime Intellect and Nous Research The work further enhances the feasibility of decentralized computing power training, and the AI ​​Agent will be OnChain and completely separated from the AI ​​MeMe coin.

SentientLabs, an open source AGI project that fights against commercial titans, will also receive greater attention in 25 years.

--DePin

As the inventor of the term DePin, Messari now subdivides DePin into physical resource network (PRN) and digital resource network (DRN)

Messari is very BullishPRN sector's new energy DePin project Glow, Daylight Energy Helium, DAWN, GEODNET, Hivemapper, DIMO and DRN sector's Prodia, Filecoin, Grass.

In 25 years, Solana’s dominance in the DePin field will be challenged by Base and others.

Comment: This part contains a large number of Alpha projects with potentially high profit-loss ratios. Interested parties are strongly recommended to read the original article.

--Consumer

Messari includes Web3 games, MeMe currency and its launch platform, DeSoc&SocialFi, and NFT into this part.

I have written many articles discussing Web3 games, so I won’t go into details here. I will just say that Messari has observed an interesting change. The gameplay design of Web3 games has begun to shift from Play2Airdrop to Pay2Airdrop

MeMe coin and its launch platform, gamification and personalized design are the new trends of the MeMeCoin launch platform. In short, it is OK to develop around the positioning of MeMeCoin as a cyber lottery.

DeSoc&SocialFi, as a former product operation, I don’t want to talk about it anymore. In 25 years, Solana and Blink’s top protocol Send have transformed into AIAgent.

< p style="text-align: left;">The Renaissance of NFT and Web3 consumer IP led by Fat Penguin, Fat Penguin and Azuki will launch consumer chains Abstractchain and Animechain respectively in 25 years

Comments: In the Consumer sector, the most Bulish ones are Fat Penguin NFT and the consumer chain Abstract Chain. 25 years will be the year when @LucaNetz becomes a god.

--CeFi

It has nothing to do with retail investors, omitted.