I read an article over the weekend "As a VC, how I missed the 100 times investment opportunity in Virtuals Protocol", and I thought that I also wrote about missing Pudgy two days ago. Penguins, so I have summarized some thoughts to share with you.

In this article, the author describes in detail the entire process of his interaction with the Virtuals team. In my opinion, the following key events are in this interaction process Points worth paying attention to:

First: "The founding team contacted me as early as July (during ETHCC). At that time, their fully diluted valuation (FDV) was only for 5000 Ten thousand US dollars. Before that, I actually heard about this project through mutual friends in the first quarter, and their valuation was even lower at that time.”

Second: "I heard from some friends in the crypto space about their rebranding from the PathDAO era and their theories on the tokenization of AI agents after experiencing a bear market and no major centralized exchanges ( CEX) This persistence in continuing to advance the project is admirable despite the listing. Many other founders might have chosen to return the funds or abandon the project, but the Virtuals team persisted and returned to the market stronger.”

Third: "Earlier this year, we saw a number of projects combining cryptography and AI in an attempt to achieve decentralized computing or inference. Frankly, these projects A lot of it is just talk.”

Fourth: "GOAT has sparked a craze about AI agent tokens because it allows the market to start imagining the possibilities when AI agents can interact with a certain currency." p>

"After realizing this opportunity, the Virtuals team moved quickly to demonstrate their technical prowess. Their tokenized AI agent LUNA was launched on October 16 , only better than GOAT The release was a week late."

When the first incident occurred, the track where the project was located had no prospects for the time being, or even if there might be prospects, it would not be possible in the future. The uncertainty is still quite large.

Merely having a low valuation is not an advantage.

Therefore, if you are conservative, it would be no shame not to invest in this project. If it were me, I wouldn't vote either.

This reminds me of the Tesla case.

A technology investor I admire very much once said: He began to boldly bet that Tesla could successfully achieve large-scale mass production in the Shanghai factory. It started later. If Tesla doesn't get to this point, it could be doomed at any time. Only after reaching this point can there be a possibility of miracles happening later.

I very much agree with this point of view, and I think investing in encryption projects is similar. If a track is too uncertain and death may occur at any time, the risk of betting at this time is still too high.

When the second event occurs, investors can be sure of one thing: the founder of this team is reliable and trustworthy. From the perspective of investing in projects means investing in people, this project has passed the test.

But that's all. Just because someone passes the test does not mean that the project will be successful. The success of the project also requires success in execution, strategy and other aspects. These factors all need to be tested by the market, and they are still not visible at this time.

So at this point, if it were me, I would still not invest, but I will pay attention to the development of this project. Once I feel that its subsequent operations and strategies and policies are in line with my expectations, then I will be ready to join the game at any time.

My feelings about the third incident are exactly the same as this investor’s. I am not optimistic about most early AI + Crypto projects and think that It’s a false demand under the guise of being in the spotlight.

I think the most important thing is the fourth event.

If investors believe that AI agents will have great room for development after the emergence of Goat, and see Virtuals using crypto assets to help AI agents raise funds, If the model that supports the development of AI agents works, then you can really boldly enter the game at this time.

Because at this time, investors have confirmed that the team is reliable, the direction is correct, and the strategy is correct, then they should dare to take the remaining risks.

So as long as we can boldly enter the game at this step, I thinkIt’s not a missed opportunity.

Although the benefits are much smaller than entering the game when the first thing happens, the risk of entering the game at this time is also much smaller. For investors with slightly larger capital, I think this is the most appropriate time to enter.