2024 will be a magnificent year for the encryption industry. The launch of Bitcoin spot ETFs, the accelerating institutional adoption, the industry craze brought about by Trump’s crypto-friendly stance, and BTC breaking through the $100,000 mark for the first time, etc., are all signs that cryptocurrency has become an unstoppable force with profound implications. The changes are shaping the future of the industry and providing unlimited imagination for 2025.

Review of the development of the encryption industry in 2024

In 2024, many things happened in the encryption market. Changes in the industry structure and fluctuations in market sentiment are shaping the unique industry landscape this year. Looking back on this year, Bitcoin's performance was particularly eye-catching, with its price soaring by more than 110%, demonstrating the unique charm and potential of cryptocurrency as an emerging investment field.

1. The ETF era has begun

At the beginning of the year, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approved the first Bitcoin spot ETF. This landmark decision marked the official entry of crypto assets into the mainstream financial market. The influx of funds pushed the price of Bitcoin to a record high in March. The enthusiasm of institutional investors and the high recognition of the market laid a solid foundation for the prosperity of the cryptocurrency market throughout the year.

2. Bitcoin’s fourth halving

At the end of April, Bitcoin ushered in The fourth halving event in history has once again highlighted Bitcoin’s unique status as a scarce asset. Although the market did not continue to strengthen after the halving, and instead entered a correction period after May, historical data shows that the supply reduction effect caused by the halving cannot be ignored in the long-term promotion of Bitcoin prices, becoming a market optimistic in 2024. An important catalyst for emotions.

3. Market adjustment and the rise of memes

Around the middle of the year, the encryption market began a painful adjustment period, affected by global macroeconomic uncertainty, geopolitical conflicts and Germany’s Affected by multiple factors such as selling, market volatility has intensified. Major market indicators have fallen sharply from their highs in the first half of the year. Altcoins have even fallen to bear market lows. The industry is facing a difficult period and skepticism is rife. ExpectDuring the period, the listing of Ethereum spot ETF brought a glimmer of hope to the market, but it failed to replicate the rising trend of Bitcoin ETF. Ethereum and its ecology, which had high hopes, led the decline. When market sentiment was sluggish, Meme coin relied on its unique The value capture model and community consensus have suddenly emerged and become an emerging track with a market value of over 100 billion US dollars, triggering in-depth discussions in the industry about its core value.

4. The Federal Reserve starts an interest rate cut cycle

In September, the global financial market is facing a major crisis In a turning point, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates for the first time in four years, forcing major central banks around the world to follow suit, and the world entered a relatively loose monetary environment. The interest rate cut cycle is often closely related to the rise in risk asset prices. Crypto market confidence has begun to boost after a period of downturn. Trading volume and the total supply of stablecoins have shown signs of recovery to a certain extent, and market funds and activity have recovered. .

5. "Trump Deal" pushes Bitcoin to break through 100,000 US dollars

No. In the fourth quarter, the encryption market ushered in a historic moment. During the U.S. election, the topic of cryptocurrency took center stage on the U.S. stage for the first time. The Trump team's clear commitment to promote a more friendly regulatory framework has greatly stimulated market sentiment. The "Trump deal" continues to heat up and continue to ferment after his victory.

Since then, Trump has successively appointed encryption supporters as heads of various departments, such as the Secretary of the Treasury, the Secretary of Commerce, the Chairman of the SEC, the leader of the Department of Efficiency, and the head of the Department of Encryption. The person in charge of monetary affairs, etc., and promoted the launch of the Bitcoin strategic reserve plan in various states, stimulating the price of Bitcoin to rise steadily, historically exceeding the $100,000 mark. Cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin have not only achieved a leap in value at the economic level, but have also gained unprecedented recognition and attention at the political and social levels.

Bitcoin breaks through $108,000

Events worthy of attention in 2025

On January 20, 2025, the United States will hold a presidential inauguration ceremony, and Trump will officially take office. Compared with Biden, the new administration led by Trump is more friendly to the encryption market. The increasingly open and transparent regulatory environment will provide a broad space for imagination for the future of the encryption market, and the market is highly concerned about and expects this.

1. Advancement of the Bitcoin Strategic Reserve Plan

Trump’s concept of the “U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve” , is undoubtedly one of the focuses worthy of attention in 2025. If Bitcoin obtains strategic reserve status, it will achieve a magnificent transformation from a niche asset in the market to a public asset in the treasury, and its legitimacy and recognition will be greatly enhanced. As a strategic reserve asset, Bitcoin will work side by side with traditional assets such as gold and foreign exchange reserves to provide guarantee for economic stability and financial security.

Trump repeatedly raised the idea of ​​establishing a Bitcoin reserve during the campaign, and not long ago once again hinted at the establishment of Bitcoin in an interview with the New York Stock Exchange reserve. It remains to be seen whether this ambitious proposal can be implemented in the short term, but it is expected to be actively promoted in 2025, and any comments from Trump suggesting that this plan is moving forward will bring obvious upward help to the market and Send a clear crypto-friendly signal to the market and expand Bitcoin’s influence in the global financial system.

At the federal level, many states have submitted proposals for Bitcoin strategic reserves, and more and more U.S. listed companies have begun or are discussing Bitcoin. Coin reserve plan. At the global level, these "pioneer attempts" by the United States are expected to be followed soon, and many may start a round of competition for Bitcoin reserves. For example, Forbes predicts that the G7 or BRICS will establish strategic Bitcoin reserves in 2025.

2. Bitcoin ETFs continue to grow, and new cryptocurrency ETFs are born

This year is for As far as Bitcoin is concerned, the most important thing is probably that the US SEC approved the listing application of multiple Bitcoin spot ETFs in early January. In less than a year after their launch, these ETF products attracted nearly US$120 billion. funds.

The success of Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs has led to the emergence of other cryptocurrency ETFs in 2025 turning points, including SOL and XRP, as well as the staking function of the Ethereum spot ETF. Although the SEC has previously rejected some Solana ETF applications, it is still reviewing more than 10 related applications, showing continued interest in expanding crypto investment options. As the market matures and regulations become clearer, more types of cryptocurrency ETFs are expected to be approved, thereby enhancing market liquidity and investor confidence.

3. The crypto market ushered in this bull market high

Historical data shows that the Bitcoin halving effect is generally It will bring about a price increase cycle of about one year. It is expected to drive optimism in the market and push prices higher until the first half of 2025.

On the other hand, historical experience shows that the peak of the crypto bull market usually does not occur during the interest rate cut cycle, but is more likely to occur at the end of the interest rate cut cycle or the approach to the interest rate hike cycle. At the end, or even at the beginning. For example, the extreme easing caused by the epidemic in 2020 started the crypto bull market. As the Federal Reserve gradually released tightening signals, the market peaked at the end of 2021, and then interest rate hikes officially began in 2022.

From a macro perspective, the first phase of the current round of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve has ended and will enter a new phase starting next year. The latest dot plot shows that next year Two more rate cuts are expected, totaling 50 basis points. The base rate is expected to fall to neutral by mid-2025. Whether there will be further interest rate cuts or a tightening signal will depend on the level of inflation by then and whether Trump can successfully exert influence on the Fed. If the Federal Reserve releases a tightening signal to combat inflation, the market may enter a period of adjustment.

However, it should be noted that this bull market is very different from the historical encryption cycles. The final bull market may have multiple development paths, especially in special markets. With Trump pursuing fiscal expansion and releasing unprecedented crypto-friendly signals, a stronger and longer bull market is expected. In this process, Bitcoin will gain more solid support and gradually become the core US dollar asset in addition to the US dollar industry cycle (such as AI). The decoupling trend between Bitcoin and the altcoin market is expected to further strengthen.

Summary

2024 is undoubtedly the most milestone year for cryptocurrency to enter the mainstream financial market The first year also opens up infinite possibilities for 2025. Although the current market is experiencing volatility and adjustment, with Trump taking office to further promote crypto-friendliness, as well as the launch of more cryptocurrency ETFs and the increasing adoption of institutions and sovereigns, the market is at the forefront of innovation and expansion, full of Attractive, the industry is expected to usher in broader development prospects and richer investment opportunities.

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