Around Christmas, the encryption market seems to be taking a break with the arrival of the holiday.

Since Powell’s words last week caused the crypto market to collapse, the overall market has been consolidating after falling. Bitcoin has fluctuated at US$95,000, and ETH has held firm at US$3,300. The altcoin sector generally performed poorly, with most currencies falling.

From the core reasons, in addition to the change in interest rate cut expectations, the Christmas holiday in Europe and the United States has a great impact on the market. Risk aversion in the market is obvious, and ETF inflows from Turn to outflow. Data shows that the U.S. spot BTC ETF market has experienced record outflows for two consecutive days. After an outflow of $671.9 million on December 19, another $277 million was outflowed on the second day.

The sudden decline and adjustment caused many investors to encounter Waterloo, and among them, there was a special person. Presumptive President Trump also mentioned a short-lived "Christmas robbery" after buying heavily in his encryption project WLFI.

WLFI is the abbreviation of World Liberty Financial, the Trump family’s DeFi project. Its token WLFI was launched on October 15. On the first day of the token sale, the The project raised approximately $10 million. At the time, this move was considered by the market to be another example of Trump’s support for the encryption field, and Trump also successfully used this project to once again express his stance and obtain dual support of funds and votes.

After 2 months, Trump has entered the White House, and World Liberty Financial has finally made new moves. On December 31, the community officially approved the first proposal to deploy a lending instance based on Aave v3 on the Ethereum main network. This is consistent with its project roadmap. The project white paper mentioned building a crypto bank based on Aave in the first phase. The Aave community was previously opposed to this proposal until WLFI proposed to allocate 7% of its WLFI tokens and 20% of future fees generated by WLF to Aave DAO, and successfully used a profit-sharing model to deeply bind partners. .

On the other hand, from the most direct perspective of token sales, according to official website data, as of the date of publication, WLFI has sold 507 million tokens, with a price of 0.015 Based on the price calculation, the total sales reached 76.05 million US dollars, but it is still far from the ambitious goal of 20 billion pieces. And from disclosed investorsSee, Justin Sun is the most well-known among them. He invested US$30 million in WLFI and is also one of the largest investors. Considering that the tokens cannot be transferred and can only be used for governance, it is difficult not to suspect that Sun’s move is a gesture of goodwill to Trump.

The official website disclosed the composition of Trump’s team. Within the team, Trump remains the chief cryptocurrency advocate, while his three sons have all become Web3 ambassadors. It is worth noting that the official website explains in black and white the relationship between Trump and the project. It clearly states that the Trump family has no relationship with the project, but the Trump family and affiliated companies have the right to collect fees according to a service agreement. 75% of the net protocol revenue, and even emphasized that neither the project nor the token has any attributes. It can be seen that this is a project that bears a strong imprint of Trump’s endorsement, and the money is owned by Trump, but it is actually not legally related to the Trump family.

Five co-founders have also surfaced. In addition to Zak Folkman, who has a criminal record, and Zak Folkman, who has sold weight loss pills and founded the encryption project Dough Finance, have also surfaced. In addition to Chase Herro, Trump’s friend Steven Witkoff, who is also a real estate developer, also brought his family to the battle, and his two sons Alex and Zach also became co-founders.

Obviously, the professionalism of the founders is relatively limited, so someone naturally needs to lead the technical team. In the core stablecoin and payment business of the project, crypto veteran Rich Teo serves as the person in charge. He was the founder of the exchange itBit and is currently the CEO of Paxos Asia. Corey Caplan, the head of technical strategy, is also very experienced and is a co-founder of another DeFi platform, Dolomite.

In addition, perhaps to make up for the lack of professionalism, WLFI also formed a group of The encryption advisory team, including Sandy Peng, co-founder of Scroll, Ryan of Toma Wallet, Luke Pearson of Polychain Capital, etc., are all official advisors and can provide project support from a strategic perspective.

Since the income belongs to Trump, it is natural that Trump should also pay attention to the project income. From this aspect, WLFI’s layout in cryptocurrency can also be seen Trumpposition replenishment. Just in the past month, WLFI has started a buy-buy mode. According to Lookonchain data, since November 30, World Liberty Financial has spent approximately US$45 million through a wallet to purchase a large number of crypto assets, including US$30 million. ETH, $10 million in cbBTC, $2 million in LINK, $1.91 million in AAVE, $750,000 in ENA, and $250,000 in ONDO.

This huge investment, which had been in a state of floating profit, successfully fell sharply in the market was bloodbathed, and the maximum loss of the project reached US$6.15 million on December 20. Although the loss has reduced somewhat today, the floating loss still reached US$1.43 million. President Trump also briefly and passively became a small leek in the market, truly practicing the slogan of equality for everyone in the currency circle. But in the long term, the WLFI team's bullish sentiment is highlighted. A typical example is that during the sharp decline on December 20, the team also spent 2.5 million USDC to increase its holdings of 759 ETH, which continued to lower the average price.

Of course, increasing holdings may not be unreasonable. From a macro perspective, the crypto bull market is far from over, and in the near future, there is a high probability that the "Christmas market" will reappear with the coming of Christmas.

The so-called Christmas market refers to the phenomenon that the total market value of cryptocurrencies will rise around Christmas. From a theoretical analysis, the reason for this phenomenon is the regular changes in capital inflow and outflow. On the one hand, when the Chinese New Year falls, most investors will realize profits or a small number of profits will be liquidated, and selling is relatively obvious; on the other hand, due to the risk aversion for the holiday, most funds will be out for rest, and buyers will The market will also shrink, waiting for expectations for the coming year. Taking both aspects into consideration, before Christmas, the crypto market usually pulls back slightly, while after the holidays, funds will flood back in to push up prices.

According to data from Coingecko, in the ten years from 2014 to 2023, the Christmas market has occurred 8 times, and the total crypto market value has reached 10% on December 27. In the week of January 2nd, it rose 0.69% to 11.87%. Only 2021 and 2022 did not achieve growth. In 2021, due to the Christmas market occurring before the holiday, the increase reached 6.9%. In 2022, it was in the haze of FTX, and the overall market performance was mediocre. Both fell by 5.30% and 5.30% respectively after Christmas. 1.90%.

As Bitcoin, which has the most core market capitalization, the Christmas market is also related. In the past 10 years, Bitcoin has experienced 7 Christmas markets in the week before Christmas and 5 times in the period after Christmas. .Specifically, Bitcoin on Christmas The increase ranged from 0.20% to 13.19% before the holidays, and the increase ranged from 0.33% to 10.86% after Christmas. The most prominent year of increase was 2016, when Bitcoin rose by 13.19% in the week before Christmas.

Generally speaking, due to the violent fluctuations in funds around Christmas, it is a good time to buy at low prices. Of course, based on past predictions, it is just based on pictures, and the market trends every year are not The performance is consistent. Since the current bull market, there has not been a major market correction. During the Christmas period when funds are tight, in addition to sideways adjustments, the probability of violent washouts is also increasing. However, considering that the follow-up prospects are relatively bright, Long-term bullish sentiment remains unchanged.

Greeks.live macro analyst Adam said that nearly 12 billion US dollars of options have expired in the options market, accounting for more than 40% of the current total positions. Large investors and market makers are actively adjusting their positions. , paying more attention to the market can occasionally get good opportunities to pick up opportunities. The market is more betting on the market situation before and after Trump takes office at the end of January. It is still a good opportunity to buy options in the near future.

Christmas is approaching, the market is not volatile, and investors are celebrating the holiday. All they can focus on is political affairs, and Politifi has therefore become a key link. Trump lost money on one side, and Musk, his ally on the other side, was not willing to accept it. Showing weakness has come to the forefront, and the first thing the new Minister of Efficiency has done after taking office is making a fuss on Capitol Hill.

As we all know, the United States. We have been struggling with money for a long time, and from time to time we will face a "shutdown" crisis when there is no money to issue. Therefore, the debt ceiling and the financial budget have become key issues in the game between the two parties. At the end of September this year, in order to avoid the intensification of the budget dispute, Congress voted together. A temporary bill that provides funding for Biden's current position until December 20. As the date approaches, House Speaker Mike Johnson once again announced on December 17. published a long The purpose of the 1,547-page spending bill is very clear, and it is to provide funding until March 2025. In order to pass this major bill, Johnson and the Democratic Party also went through consultations and attached a number of bipartisan bills, which were ultimately supported by both parties. Lawmakers added dozens of additional provisions to the bill that want not just money, but more money., Minister Ma, who exists to cut expenditures, is dissatisfied. At 4:15 a.m. on December 18, Musk posted on social media Publicly threatening members of the House or Senate who vote for this outrageous spending bill should be voted out of office within two years.

Compared to Musk who was shouting loudly, Trump, the real talker, was slightly silent until 4:28 pm on Wednesday. Only then did he express his support for Musk, saying that the bill was a betrayal of the people, and demanded that the core condition of raising the debt ceiling be included in the proposal.

The Democrats are naturally unwilling, and the two have fallen into a new round of game. As expected, the bill was stillborn, and the Republican Party subsequently made significant changes to the bill. The document was reduced to more than 110 pages. Finally, at 0:38 a.m. local time on the 21st, the revised version was passed. The temporary appropriation bill allows the U.S. federal government to maintain current spending levels until March 2025. It also includes $100 billion in disaster relief funds and $10 billion in aid for farmers, but does not include provisions on the debt ceiling.

After this move, Democratic congressmen were very dissatisfied with Musk and even publicly ridiculed Musk as the real shadow president. Wisconsin Democratic Representative Gwen Moore said that "Republicans have once again pushed the United States to the brink of shutdown at the behest of Trump and his billionaire club." The Republicans were more direct, saying that Musk should replace Johnson as Speaker of the House of Representatives. The market also joked that the US president is a tripartite, with Biden, who has not yet left office, Trump, who is about to take office, and shadow president Musk crowding the White House.

Trump even responded, saying that Musk will not become president, "No, I can tell you, he will not become president," he explain. "I'm safe, do you know why? It's impossible for him, he was not born here."

After the bill incident, Musk also said Overjoyed, the efficiency department logo was released again, which also made DOGE gain a lot of success and fame. From the current point of view, although the effect is not as obvious as before, the currency price has still rebounded. After falling to 0.26 US dollars on December 20, DOGE has recovered to 0.35 US dollars, and is now oscillating at 0.31 US dollars.

Overall, the events in this Congress are seriousThe probability is that it is a demonstration of Trump 2.0, but Musk is the first to be sent out to sing the praises. But judging from the end of the incident, Trump's muscle flexing has begun to show results, and this concentration of power has been vividly demonstrated. This is also an obvious benefit to the subsequent advancement of Trump's claims, and in the encryption field, it may also be a rare Take advantage of the east wind and fly for a while.