Author: Stacy Muur, Web3 researcher; Translation: Golden Finance xiaozou

I have been paying close attention to some of the smartest Research report published by the Web3 team. Their articles provide food for thought, show different perspectives, and help you become more convinced of the views you agree with.

Research articles contain professional opinions that can help you better understand different people's views on the Web3 field. Now let’s take a look at the Delphi team’s “2025 Crypto Market Outlook” summary.

Not long ago, many people thought that Bitcoin with a price of $100,000 was just a pipe dream.

Now, this sentiment has changed dramatically. Bitcoin’s market capitalization is approximately $2 trillion, which is truly staggering. If Bitcoin were a public company, it would be the sixth most valuable company in the world.

Bitcoin has attracted a lot of attention, but there is still considerable growth space.

Bitcoin’s market value is only 11% of the total market value of the seven major American technology giants (Apple, NVIDIA, Microsoft, Amazon, Google, META, Tesla) .

It is less than 3% of the total market value of U.S. stocks and about 1.5% of the total market value of global stocks.

Its entire market value only accounts for 5% of the total outstanding public debt of the United States, and less than 0.7% of the total global debt (public debt + private debt).

The size of U.S. money market funds is three times the market value of Bitcoin.

The market value of Bitcoin only accounts for about 15% of the total global foreign exchange reserve assets. Hypothetically, if global central banks reallocated 5% of their respective gold reserves to Bitcoin, it would add more than $150 billion in purchasing power—three times the total net inflows into IBIT this year.

Household net worth has reached an all-time high, exceeding $160 trillion, more than $40 trillion higher than the pre-pandemic peakDollar. This growth, largely driven by rising housing prices and a booming stock market, is 80 times greater than Bitcoin’s current market capitalization.

In a world where the Federal Reserve and other central banks cause their currencies to depreciate by 5-7% per year Here, investors need to target an annual return of 10-15% to make up for the resulting loss of future purchasing power.

So you understand:

Calculated at a depreciation rate of 5% per year, the currency’s Real value will drop by half in 14 years.

At a depreciation rate of 7% per year, the real value of currency will drop by half in 10 years.

This is why Bitcoin and other high-growth industries are gaining so much attention and traction.

Although Bitcoin has hit record highs again and again this year, 2024 is not a very successful year for most altcoins. Year.

ETH has not reached all-time highs.

SOL has once again hit an all-time high, but it's only a few dollars above its previous high, which is a pittance compared to the growth in market cap and network activity.

ARB started the year strong but began to underperform at the end of the year.

There are many such examples. Just look at the data for 90% of the altcoins in your portfolio and it will become clear.

What is the specific reason?

The first reason is Bitcoin’s dominance. Bitcoin has had a remarkable year, fueled by ETF flows and Trump support, leading to a price gain of more than 130% year-to-date and boosting its dominance to a three-year high.

Second pointThe reason is that the market is fragmented.

This year’s market fragmentation is a new phenomenon in the crypto market. Previous market cycles tended to favor synchronized trading. When BTC goes up 1%, ETH usually goes up 2% and altcoins go up 3%, with predictable patterns. However, this cycle is different.

There is a small group of cryptocurrencies that are doing extremely well, but there are also large swaths of red.

The rising Bitcoin wave has not benefited everyone, and the classic "Path to Altseason" that many expected has not materialized.

Last but not least, Meme coins (and more recently AI Agents).

Cryptocurrencies have vacillated between being “pure Ponzi schemes” and “technologies that promise to change the world.” In 2024, the former dominates the discourse.

Meme super cycle amplifies the notion that cryptocurrency is just a giant Ponzi scheme . People are starting to question whether fundamentals really matter, and whether cryptocurrencies are just “casinos on Mars” — and these concerns are legitimate.

In this regard, I would like to say more.

When Memecoins are labeled as the best performers of the year, only the largest Memecoins are taken into account - those that have created significant market cap and established The community’s Meme coin. People often ignore the fact that 95% of Meme coins issued fail to maintain their value, but people are "willing to believe".

With this belief, many people who previously invested in altcoins switched to Meme Coins – Some people succeed, but most people fail. As a result, capital inflows are mainly distributed between Bitcoin (institutional capital) and meme coins (high risk), squeezing most altcoins aside.

Delphi believes that 2025 will usher in a transition to technology that "changes the world."

Personally, I am not too optimistic. In 2024, there will be many KOLs who mainly focus on Meme coins. For example, I created a Telegram folder with some really valuable channels. It is necessary to find a channel that is not Channels centered on "ape calls" are very difficult. This is the attention game, and the well-discussed narrative can seriously influence market trends.

(1) Stablecoin growth and credit expansion

A major obstacle facing the market is an oversupply of tokens. The market is facing a flood of new assets from private investment and public token offerings. For example, there will be over 4 million tokens on Solana’s pump.fun in 2024 alone Release. Meanwhile, the total cryptocurrency market capitalization has only increased 3 times since the previous cycle, compared with 18 times in 2017 and 10 times in 2020.

The missing ingredients—stablecoin growth and credit expansion—are starting to reappear. Lower interest rates and friendlier regulations are expected to spur speculation and address these imbalances. As stablecoins regain traction, they The fundamental role of trading and collateral will be critical to market recovery

(2 ) Institutional capital inflow

Until last year, institutional capital was very hesitant to participate in cryptocurrencies due to regulatory uncertainty. However, this began to happen as the SEC reluctantly approved a spot Bitcoin ETF Changes have occurred, paving the way for future institutional investment

These institutional investors will look for investment opportunities that they are familiar with. While some investors may dabble in Meme coins, they are more likely to be more interested in assets in areas such as ETH/SOL, DeFi or infrastructure. p>

Delphi expects that the coming year will be similar to the "across the board" phenomenon in previous cycles. This time, projects based on basic principles or core goals will regain their popularity. Pay attention. This may include OG Assets such as DeFi, which have good historical performance and are battle-tested. They may also be infrastructure assets, similar to the L1 transactions we observed before. Others may include RWAs (real world assets) or artificial intelligence. DePIN and other emerging fields.

Not every cryptocurrency will rise by triple digits like before, and meme coins are here to stay. This could mark a new beginning and a broad crypto rally.

Note: Generally speaking, most institutional traders rely heavily on options hedging. Therefore, if there is a “broad rally”, the assets most likely to attract investor interest will be those with options, primarily tradeable on Deribit or Aevo.

(3) Solana’s dominance

Solana demonstrates the resilience of the blockchain ecosystem . After suffering a 96% plunge during the FTX crash, Solana staged a stunning rebound in 2024.

Main highlights include:

Developer Momentum: Solana’s hackathons and airdrops (such as the Jito airdrop) have reignited developer and user engagement, creating a virtuous cycle of innovation and adoption.

Market dominance: From meme coins to artificial intelligence applications, Solana dominates the trends of 2024. Notably, its real economic value (REV)—a measure of transaction fees and MEV—exceeds Ethereum’s by more than 200%.

Future Outlook: Solana is expected to challenge Ethereum’s dominance in terms of expansion and user experience. Its seamless user experience and centralized ecosystem provide significant advantages over decentralized L2 solutions.

For many, the current market situation may be reminiscent of 2017-2018, when Bitcoin reached 20,000 before the new year The dollar peaked and began to decline shortly after 2018 arrived. However, in my opinion, comparing the crypto market in 2018 to the market in 2025 is irrelevant. These are two completely different environments.

It is important to realize that the broad crypto market extends far beyond the timelines of CT and X. People outside these platforms view the market very differently.

In 2025, I expect the crypto market to be divided into two main verticals:

Web3 natives: traders who are deeply rooted in the crypto market. They have a nuanced understanding of Bitcoin’s unique characteristics and a willingness to engage in high-risk transactions, including meme coins, AI agents, and pre-sales—elements reminiscent of the Wild West.

Ordinary investors: Institutional investors and retail investors tend to have different approaches to risk management, and they typically stick to a more basic investing and trading strategy - converting cryptocurrencies Considered an alternative to the stock market.

Which vertical field will be marginalized? It is those DeFi, RWA and DePIN protocols in the early stages that cannot ensure that they stay ahead in the market segment or at least on the chain. This is just my idea.