Written by 0xWeilan

This week, BTC opened at US$78370.15 and closed at US$84733.07, up 6.84% for the whole week, with an amplitude of 14.89%, and the trading volume continued to significantly increase. Since late January, BTC prices have effectively broken through the upper edge of the downward channel for the first time. Approximate to the 200-day moving average.

Trump's "peer-to-peer tariff war" is still the largest independent variable in global macro finance this week. Its dramatic performance shocked the world, and its countermeasures revealed the strongest countermeasures.

In the "collision game", the person who blinks first is likely to lose. The tariff war against the world has triggered either explicit or implicit reactions from global forces, including not limited to political, business and capital levels.

ultimately led to capital fleeing the US market, and the US "stocks, bonds, and foreign exchange" achieved a rare triple kill.

Faced with the huge financial crisis, Trump chose to make concessions, or partially suspend the implementation of reciprocal tariffs, or reduce the intensity to supplement the list of exempted goods, and face the biggest opponent at the public opinion level to release goodwill. Since then, the "peer-to-peer tariff war" has gradually entered the second stage, and many parties will start negotiations and compromises.

The risk equity market that had previously plummeted due to the first phase has seen a sharp rebound. Perhaps the most terrible phase caused by the "peer-to-peer tariff war" has passed, but subsequent chaos will continue to dominate various markets. The reciprocal tariff crisis will neither pass easily nor be easily avoided from triggering new crises. Whether the conflict will escalate after subsequent "reciprocal tariffs", whether the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in a "timely manner" and whether the US economy will fall into recession have become the main observation points. , Macrofinance and economic data

Because most of them are unable to counter "reciprocal tariffs", the EU's countermeasures have become the main force in resisting US hegemony, and the tit-for-tat is the mainstay.

After several rounds of confrontation, the United States' tariffs on tariffs were increased to 145%, and the counter-tariffs on the United States were increased to 125%. This has actually basically cut off the possibility of normal trade exchanges, so it was subsequently announced that it would no longer respond to the possible additional tariffs of the United States.

On April 10, the United States suspended its majority(excluding) relative tariffs, retain 10% "benchmark tariffs" and start negotiations. US stocks rose sharply, with Nasdaq hitting the second largest increase in a single day in history.

What seems to be passive actually puts huge pressure on the United States. On the 12th, the United States exempted 145% "peer-to-peer tariffs" of some products, including smartphones, tablets, laptops, semiconductors, integrated circuits, flash memory, display modules, etc.

It is not just the countermeasure that really pushes Trump into the "second phase". There are also strong "opposition" from the US political and business markets and the stock, bond and foreign exchange markets.

On Monday, April 7, the three major U.S. stock indexes fell sharply and hit adjustment lows, entering or approaching a technology bear market. The next day, the VIX panic index hit a high of 52.33, the third peak since the 2008 subprime debt crisis and the 2020 COVID-19 crisis.

S&P 500 VIX Index

In the same period, short-term treasury yields fell to 3.8310% on Thursday, while long-term treasury yields rebounded sharply on Friday, closing at a high of 4.4950%.

U.S. 10-year Treasury bond yield

After the US stock market suffered a large-scale sale, US bond funds also joined the sell-off action, and the funds fled to the United States and Europe and other places, the US dollar index DXY also fell sharply.

Dollar Index

Stocks in stocks, bonds and foreign exchanges forced Trump to send signals of easing the tariff war and release the exemption list. At the same time, the Federal Reserve also sent a "dove" signal to the outside world. Boston Fed Chairman Collins said in an interview with the Financial Times on Friday that the Fed is "absolutely ready" to use various tools to stabilize financial markets when necessary.

Tariff war eases and the Federal Reserve's verbal rescue, temporarily eased the US financial market. On Friday, the US valuations also rose one after another and ended a turbulent week.

EMC Labs judged that the US-peer tariff war has entered the second stage, and market fears have eased and gradually began to bottom out, but based on Trump's "irrationality" and the huge risks in the US economic recession and inflation (the University of Michigan consumer confidence index released this week continued to fall to 50.8), a V-shaped flip into a smaller probability event.

The selling pressure on the long and short bracelets this week has weakened, slightly stopping the panic selling for three consecutive weeks. The sales scale on the full-week chain is 188,816.61 pieces, including 178,263.27 pieces in short hand and 10,553.34 pieces in long hand. The short-hand group on the 7th and 9th day lost a lot of losses amid the global market panic.

The long-term group is still playing a stabilizer role, increasing its holdings by nearly 60,000 this week, indicating that the market liquidity is still quite lacking. As of the weekend, the short-hand group was still at a floating loss level of 10%, indicating that the market is still under tremendous pressure.

The entire market on-chain floating profits and losses

According to eMerge Engine, the EMC BTC Cycle Metrics indicator is 0.125, and the market is in an upward relay period.