Interview: Arain, ChainCatcher

Guest: 0xWizard em>

Organization: Arain, ChainCatcher

0xWizard is a crypto-Chinese KOL with nearly 200,000 followers on X, known as the "Meme Wizard".

Meme can be said to be a main thread running through this bull market cycle, although it is still difficult for some people to admit it emotionally.

"Bravely participate in the second wave of opportunities" is the purpose of 0xWizard. Based on the bottom-up market recognition and thinking about the essential reasons, he believes that although The bull market has already begun, but on-chain Meme has just begun.

"There will be another 500 billion-dollar Memes in the future, but it may be difficult to create another $50 billion asset." In an exclusive interview with ChainCatcher , represented by 0xWizard. However, the first-level gameplay and the second-level gameplay of Meme are completely different. For some Meme projects with high valuations that are about to flow into the secondary market, he recommends observing them before building a position.

In the exclusive interview, 0xWizard also shared his methodology for capturing new tracks and new narrative judgments, including the "Three Laws of Bull Market Engines" and the nature of the tracks, He discussed several popular AI Meme and Meme investment experience.

The following is the content of the exclusive interview:

Being in a product background makes me better at new narrative tracks and level 1 and a half investments

ChainCatcher: What was your job before entering the cryptocurrency industry?

0xWizard: Responsible for product manager related work in an Internet company, participating in some B-side and C-side product design. Later, he started his own business and made Internet-related products. In 2017, I noticed that the emerging field of encrypted digital currency began to show a unique development trend. There were also friends around me who were discussing related topics. With my own interest and optimism about its development potential, I officially entered the field.Entered the currency circle.

Due to my past work experience, I am better at judging new tracks, new narratives, and level 1 and a half investments. I think the choice and tendency of the track and making Internet products are basically the same. However, it is not that the ideas from previous product development are copied into currency investment, but there are many things in common. For example, when making a product, you have to look at whether users really need it, rather than what you subjectively think is good. You can't fall into the misunderstanding of designing from top-down imagination. It depends on whether the market recognizes it or not. The same is true for investing in the currency circle. The key to judging the success of a new track or new project is to see the market's acceptance. For example, in the AI ​​​​track, many targets with valuations of over 100 million US dollars have appeared in the primary and secondary markets. This is because the market has recognized it as a trend with practical actions. Therefore, when I make investments, I am more inclined to first understand and observe the real choices of the market.

ChainCatcher: Please share your most successful investment and your most unsuccessful investment in the world of cryptocurrency.

0xWizard: There are many successful investment cases. I just joined the circle to play on-chain gaming and algorithmic stablecoins, and I made 100 times the income in almost a month. Later, when I participated in projects like ORDI, I received about ten times the return on a large capital investment, and there were also projects like ACT, which got nearly a hundred times the return.

Major setbacks are impressive. Therefore, I suggest here that everyone must avoid adding leverage in the currency circle, whether it is contract leverage or ordinary leverage. Leverage is the source of greater frustration for me. Sometimes the greedy side of human nature comes out, or if you are unwilling to make profits, you always want to recover losses as soon as possible, which will prompt you to increase leverage or do contract transactions.

Every detour may be something that investors must go through, and they have to go through it themselves. Only in this process of ups and downs, life and death, can they truly appreciate it. What to do and what not to do in investing.

ChainCatcher: Some tracks may be false propositions. What is your main basis for judging tracks?

0xWizard: On the one hand, it is crucial to look at the market recognition from the bottom up. As I said before, you can’t just subjectively assume that a certain track is good. You have to look at the real response of the market. For example, in the AI ​​track, many related targets with valuations of over 100 million US dollars have emerged in the primary and secondary markets. , this is what the market really recognizesBut it is a trend, so it is most likely a track worthy of attention.

On the other hand, we should also think about some of the most essential reasons behind the track. For example, what is the most fundamental thing in the currency circle and which elements are the most successful parts of its bottom layer? From these perspectives, we can measure whether a track is feasible. Taking the assets in the currency circle as an example, I have summarized several "axioms" of judgment and summarized them as the "Three Laws of Bull Market Engines"——

"Old Technology, new gameplay": As the old saying goes, "Long slopes and thick snow", it depends on whether this technology has sufficient accumulation of foundation. Assets on the chain actually rely on the advantages accumulated by previous infrastructure such as DeFi, and have a foundation for development; p>

"New track, new hope": If it is a brand-new concept, the market's valuation ceiling will be larger, just like the previous metaverse concept, even if the product may not be very good according to traditional Internet standards Qualified, but because it proposes new trends and new hopes, it can also reach a high market value in the bull market. For example, in the bull market of 20-21, although projects such as SAND had poor products, their market value increased significantly due to new trends and hopes;

"Bulk generation of new assets": single It is difficult for money-making assets to form a shocking force. As long as many related assets can make profits, it will form a strong attraction. For example, different on-chain projects can make investors profit, which will attract more people to participate.

Based on these bottom-up market recognition and thinking about the essential reasons, it is not easy to make mistakes when judging the track. Even if there are occasional setbacks, they are minor. The temporary situation on the branch does not affect the judgment of the big track trend.

ChainCatcher: You just mentioned "the most essential reasons". Do these most essential reasons all point to the same place?

0xWizard: The answer to this question lies in what exactly "encrypted digital currency" does. I think it is mainly doing the following things, because it does them "ten times better" - Silicon Valley has an entrepreneurial methodology. When something is done ten times better than others, everyone has a reason to adopt it, then it is OK Get a big success.

The first is asset issuance. In traditional industries, asset issuance faces many legal, compliance and process issues, which are extremely difficult. For example, doing asset-related matters can easily involve illegal areas. Even with the New Third Board, Nasdaq, etc., turning enterprises into assetsIt’s also tough. In the currency circle, asset issuance is extremely convenient, and the speed far exceeds that of traditional industries. All kinds of strange things can be quickly converted into assets. Although there may be a large amount of junk assets, this rapid asset issuance capability has brought native activity to the currency circle. , from IC0 to defi, inscriptions, on-chain assets, etc., are all manifestations of asset issuance.

The second is regulatory arbitrage. I remember a very interesting project, the Web3 project in Nigeria. Nigerians buy shopping cards in the United States through Crypto and send them back to their families. Although the intermediate handling fee is as high as 10-20 points, they are still willing to do so. This is because Crypto provides a way for regulatory arbitrage and bypasses the foreign exchange controls of the Nigerian authorities. .

The third is speculative demand. Speculation is an important part of the original demand in the currency circle. Similar to the stock industry, speculation in the currency circle is a neutral term. The currency circle has formed a large casino that flows around the world 24 hours a day. People are constantly conducting speculative transactions, such as speculating on earth dogs, adding leverage to speculation (R), Ether-based POS and other operations, all of which serve speculation. DeFi's TVL and handling fees grew rapidly during the last bull market, but declined during the bear market. This shows that what is really happening in the currency circle is more about speculative demand, rather than changing the world and moving traditional financial assets to the market as previously expected. On the chain, the zero-sum game income scale in the business model established by the currency circle is huge (for example, BI's income is close to the BN level), which also illustrates the dominant position of speculation in the currency circle.

There may be 500 billion-dollar Memes in the future. We should focus on AI Meme

ChainCatcher: You mentioned before that Meme has become the new main line of this bull market, so from now on Looking at the primary and secondary markets, what are your expectations?

0xWizard: From the perspective of the secondary market, the Meme market will definitely have peaks and troughs, and it will basically follow the general trend. It is actually difficult to accurately predict the specific rise and fall situation. I have made many mistakes in prediction before. For example, I originally thought that Meme should pull the market first, but in fact, like XRP, according to the previous round of experience, it will only rise at the end of the market. There was a pull-back situation, but this time it started in the first wave after Trump was elected.

But what is certain is that it will definitely pull up the market, and then it will most likely fall, and the decline may reach 80% or even 90%, which is relatively common. situation. During the market launch, the market value of some Meme coins may reach billions of dollars, or even tens of billions of dollars.

From the perspective of the primary market, I think the Meme market is not bullish or bearish, it will always exist. Even before the bull market, we can see the emergence of Meme projects with a market value of hundreds of millions of dollars, or even a billion dollars. Although it has its own small cycle, it does not have an obvious bull or bear cycle like the broader market, but it may behave more crazily during the bull market. In the future, there may be, for example, 500 Meme projects with a market value of more than one billion US dollars. Even if the market value of a single project is not particularly high, it may be several billion US dollars or tens of billions of US dollars. In terms of the carrying capacity of the chain, there will be between one billion and two billion US dollars. It is very possible for Meme to have a market value of between one billion US dollars. This is already happening on different chains, such as Solana, Base, etc.

Due to the limited market value of Meme on the chain, if its price is high before listing, it is recommended to wait for it to circulate to the second level and buy after the price is adjusted. , because the valuation space of the second level is larger, and the high valuation of the first level may be difficult to support subsequent increases due to insufficient liquidity.

ChainCatcher: Why do you keep pushing AIMeme?

0xWizard: First of all, investment in the currency circle is driven by imagination. In the past, assets that were speculated in the currency circle must have enough imagination. Like the previous DeFi, the narrative is about the traditional financial revolution, as well as the concepts of NFT and the Metaverse, which claim that everyone will live in a virtual world in the future. These stories are particularly imaginative. But now, everyone basically understands NFT. The Metaverse is like Facebook itself. If DeFi is implemented, actual data must be produced. I think the most imaginative thing in the current currency circle is AI, and it is difficult to have other technologies. Such attraction.

Secondly, AI has real value. Just like DeFi has real transactions taking place, and TVL (Total Locked Value) data reflects its value, the same is true for AI. Some current AI agent projects have already generated revenue, such as projects like Virtuals; many AI projects are being widely used, such as ai16z; some AI projects have already generated considerable traffic, such as Meme projects such as ACT and GOAT. Some AI agents are even better than many human beings as knowledge aggregators. They integrate corpora to serve everyone - this is actually an improvement in productivity level. It is not just a slogan, it can be seen in real terms. They are doing things and can bring changes to cryptocurrency.

Therefore, AI is imaginative in the currency circle and can be implemented, and the implemented part can further drive more applications to be implemented. Based on these, I think AI is the biggest trend in the cryptocurrency industry in 2025. There is no one. Other trends are not on the same level as it.

ChainCatcher: You have mentioned the ecology of the ACT project many times. Can you share your unique understanding of it?

0xWizard: ACT has a relatively unique ecological niche. It is a Meme that emerged at a specific time stage and represents a tokenization of the future ideas of AI. What it promotes is to provide support for some AI agents to allow them to do more experiments and innovations, and to bring them together to create a platform like ACTswap, so that everyone can follow them on an interface by entering prompt commands. The entire process of tokenized interaction is an interesting manifestation of the integration of AI, Crypto and social media. It is a very imaginative form of presentation of future AI development in this regard.

Moreover, ACT is currently the only AI Meme project listed on a large centralized exchange, so its advantages are more obvious. Even if other AI Meme projects such as GOAT, AI16Z, and Virtuals are also listed on secondary exchanges in the future, I think ACT will still be one of the most important targets. After all, in this circle, if everyone develops together, is recognized by the market together, and obtains more liquidity together, only then will the overall performance be better, just like the saying "A person who walks alone is fast, and a group of people walks far." So taken together, ACT has a unique status and importance in the field of AI Meme.

ChainCatcher: In addition to ACT, on the AIMeme track, are there any other projects that you are optimistic about that you can share?

0xWizard: GOAT is the project that brought the popularity of this track in the early days. A certain consensus has been formed, and everyone still recognizes it. There are also platform projects like ai16z and Virtuals, which are used by a large number of AI agents for production and other operations, which are also worthy of attention.

The advantage of platform projects lies in network effects.Once they have established scale and influence, it is more difficult for others to challenge them. For other pure AI agent projects, the competition will be more intense, the iteration speed will be faster, and the moat will be relatively lower.

So if you want to make a safer investment, platform projects like ACT, GOAT, ai16z, and Virtuals would be better candidates to consider.

There is a huge difference between the primary and secondary gameplay of Meme. Ordinary investors are not suitable for hot spots

ChainCatcher: Strategies that need to be adopted when investing in Meme in the primary market and secondary market What are the specific differences? Can you share your methodology?

0xWizard: When investing in Meme in the primary market, the focus is on market value. It is necessary to judge based on experience at what market value level the target is suitable for participation, and at what stage participation is more appropriate. For example, when some value targets fall from a market value of more than 100 million to between 25 million and 30 million, a drop of about 80%, you can consider buying a small position if it meets your personal investment expectations and the "hitting zone." The process of chip accumulation for primary market targets is relatively fast, and may only take a few days or a week. As long as the dealer has not shipped the goods, there is a possibility of subsequent pull-ups, and a secondary pull-up will be carried out in conjunction with narratives, rising community popularity, etc. Waiting for the operation, even if it falls after the market is pulled, it may start again later.

In the secondary market, it must comply with the logic of chips. Investors need to learn how to play the secondary market, such as Wyckoff theory and other technical analysis methods, not necessarily Be proficient, but not ignorant. Otherwise, it is easy to get flustered by price fluctuations and unable to understand the reasons behind them. There is a chip collection process in the secondary market, that is, the accumulation stage. After this stage is completed, the distribution process of pulling the market will be entered.

In addition, the secondary market attaches great importance to the hype of new assets and new concepts. Take the AI ​​​​track as an example. After a large number of AI agent projects emerge, targets such as ACT are likely to see a sudden surge in the secondary market based on various factors. Compared with projects such as Virtuals and ai16z, which have a market value of close to one billion U.S. dollars, they carry limited funds in the primary market, and the space and significance of continuing to double in the secondary market are relatively small. Therefore, these factors must be taken into consideration to understand and Grasp the investment logic of the secondary market.

ChainCatcher: You once mentioned that investors should learn to distinguish potential targets from hot spots, so what indicators can help us distinguish between the two?

0xWizard: I think it can be observed and judged from the following aspects.

The first is the narrative and community status of the target itself. At the narrative level, for example, some AI-related projects have innovative AI-encrypted interaction models or represent unique trends. Such narratives are better. At the community level, we need to pay attention to whether there are loyal fans who continue to build when the price drops, make secondary creations every day, and stay active on various platforms. At the same time, the community cannot be limited to Chinese or English communities. Both Chinese and English communities need to be popular, so that its subsequent development limit will be higher. Narrative and community can be regarded as one of the basic elements of judgment.

The second is the financial aspect. You should pay attention to the chip situation, judge whether the dealer has made a profit and leave the market, and hand over the chips to the big players. You can use some chip analysis methods, such as checking whether all the front row investors are large losers. If so, it may be difficult for the target to rise again. If the dealer still holds a large number of untouched chips, it indicates that it has the motivation to continue to collect chips and perform operations such as a second pull-up. Based on the trends and community conditions mentioned above, as well as the financial chips and capital situation mentioned later, we can roughly judge whether a target is a potential target.

Generally speaking, hot spots are more suitable for those who are more professional in on-chain gaming, have the energy to participate early, and can enter the market with tens of thousands or hundreds of thousands of dollars. The "P-junior" type investors who sell and make profits when the price rises to a certain level are good at participating in the first wave of market conditions from the internal market to the beginning of the popularity. However, for most ordinary investors, it is recommended to pay more attention to and participate in potential targets. Of course, this requires comprehensive judgment based on their own actual situation.

ChainCatcher: In the process of investing in the currency circle, you must have a lot of information to assist decision-making. Can you share some useful sources of information?

0xWizard: I usually obtain information from a variety of sources. The first is a data website like GMGN, which launches a ranking of popular topics every day, covering various memes and other related content. I recommend checking it at least twice a day to record new targets, then observe their subsequent rise and fall, changes in chip structure, and then combine their trends and community conditions to comprehensively judge whether to participate in investment. This is very important.

The second is some tools. Some tools can push hot BOTs, and some will recommend dozens of them every day.pieces of relevant information. Of course, users need to have the energy to filter and view them on Telegram.

The other is the forwarding group, such as the Alpha group, where you can learn about the content that everyone is paying attention to and discussing. Twitter is also very important. Follow those who often share their opinions in the currency circle and participate in various projects. However, you need to filter by yourself and select the tweets of those you think are reliable and have reference value. In addition, everyone can form their own small circle and find like-minded and similar people to communicate and discuss together. As the saying goes, "when everyone adds fuel, the flames will rise", which can speed up the acquisition of information. In short, through the comprehensive use of these channels, there will basically be no lack of information.

ChainCatcher: In the face of massive information, how to screen and assist investment decisions?

0xWizard: This is indeed a critical question. After there is too much information, filtering becomes very important. First, you must make a judgment based on your own investment goals and risk tolerance. For example, some information may look tempting, but if the investment risk it corresponds to exceeds your tolerance, you must consider it carefully.

From the target information obtained, as I mentioned before, we need to analyze whether its narrative is innovative and has development potential. , whether the community is active and cohesive, both Chinese and English communities must be taken into consideration, as well as the financial situation, etc. You can't just blindly follow what others say, you have to have your own judgment and logic.

In actual application, you must understand that investment is risky. No matter how much information is collected and analyzed in the early stage, mistakes may occur. Condition. I suggest that when you first start investing, you can use a small amount of money to try it first, just like paying tuition and accumulating experience. When you gradually become familiar with it and feel confident, you can gradually adjust your investment strategy. At the same time, you must be clear about your investment style and know what types of investments you are suitable for participating in. For example, hot spots are suitable for professional and energetic "P boys" (referring to players who played PVP in the early days of Meme, which refers to market value in the early days of Meme). Very low, when the internal market is just released), they can make profits in the first wave of market conditions, but ordinary investors may be more suitable to focus on potential targets, but in the end they still have to make a comprehensive judgment based on their own actual situation.