Author: Liu Jiaolian
The 14th Week: Sichuan Emperor's tariff hits the south wall and repeatedly jumps to play with the market" reviews two large-scale harvesting sites since the beginning of this year, one was the trump meme at the beginning of the year, and the other was the latest tariff. What is deeply worrying is that unscrupulous repeated harvesting will only cause the market to continue to lose blood. The continued deterioration of basic liquidity has turned positive news into a trap of luring more and killing more, trapping every stupid leek who believes in the good news of the future market fabricated by the dealer.
When US stocks, US bonds and US dollar have a three-game winning streak in stocks, bonds and foreign exchange, smart capital will begin to flee from US dollar assets in panic.
The Teaching Chain mentioned in the "Week 14th Week: Sichuan Emperor's tariffs hit the south wall and repeatedly jumped to play with the market" that The Kobeissi Letter analyzed that the soaring U.S. bond yields forced Sichuan Emperor's repeated concessions.
The Kobeissi Letter analyzed: For weeks, President Trump insisted that he would never postpone tax increases, even if the stock market has evaporated by more than $12 trillion. However, just 12 hours after the bond market collapsed, the 90-day tariff delay was quickly implemented.
Before the implementation of the so-called reciprocal tariff on April 2, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury showed a straight downward trend. This means that the downward trend in interest rates gives room for the continued tariff war.
However, as volatility intensifies, basis trading closed positions, the 10-year yield soared by 65 basis points to 4.50%.
However, the situation suddenly changed on April 7 - with the decline in stock markets, interest rates began to soar.
As shown in the figure below, the differentiation between the S&P 500 and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has reached a historic level.
Although bonds are considered safe-haven assets, their collapse is very fastIt is more rapid than stocks.
The first batch of news headlines about the 90-day tariff reprieve began to emerge at 10:15 am ET on April 7.
The White House immediately declared that it was "fake news", but now the facts show that it is by no means false news.
Just as 10-year U.S. Treasury yields soar, Trump is likely to be discussing the 90-day delay plan with his advisory team.
Two days later, on April 9, the 90-day tariff delay order was officially announced.
Then Trump basically confirmed that this move originated from the fluctuations in the bond market: "I was paying close attention to the bond market at that time. This market was very tricky. Look at how beautiful the trend is now."
This is obviously an interest rate-driven turn. More specifically, at the end of the video clip, he said: "Yes, I noticed that some people began to restless last night."
This refers specifically to the basis trading closing phenomenon mentioned above - Trump knows that if no intervention is made, the $800 billion basis trading closing will push the 10-year yield to 5%.
As the basis trading collapsed, safe-haven funds quickly poured into the gold market again.
With the sharp weakening of the US dollar, the global M2 discount was set a new high.
The storm is coming and the wind fills the building.