According to Golden Finance, according to market Polymarket data, the probability of the United States falling into an economic recession in 2025 has risen to 60%. The total trading volume in the forecast market has reached US$2.48 million, with an expiration date of February 28, 2026. Data shows that the probability of the forecast market has continued to rise since early March, gradually rising from around 20% to the current 60%. According to market rules, if the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) declares an economic recession in 2025, or if the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) data shows negative GDP growth for two consecutive quarters, the forecast will be judged as "yes".