By the end of 2024, domestic AI applications have ushered in a new change.

The radical party undoubtedly belongs to ByteDance. First, it poached Zhou Chang, the core technical leader of Tongyi Qianwen, from Alibaba at a sky-high price. Later, it was reported that they were frantically spending money to invest in Doubao, and even increased their monthly salary for Doubao. Live, Douyin does not hesitate to restrict Kimi from streaming on the platform.

Under a series of combined punches, Byte has also achieved results in data. The most exaggerated report claims that as of the end of November, the cumulative user scale of Doubao APP in 2024 has successfully exceeded 160 million, with each user The average daily number of new user downloads has remained stable at 800,000, making it the second-ranked AI app in the world and the first-ranked domestic app.

Relatively speaking, Alibaba’s attitude seems to be reflected in its investment direction and star companies such as Kimi. As the largest shareholder of Kimi, Kimi has been burning money like crazy in the past few months in exchange for growth. With a monthly activity of 38 million, the rapid copying of many functions of openAI also shows Alibaba’s thoughts as a shareholder.

Charlie Munger’s sentence “I didn’t stop to realize it was still a damn retailer” once made Jack Ma reflect, and then he threw out the concept of “AI e-commerce”. Looking back on Alibaba's actions in the past year, abandoning offline retail and embracing AI has become the main tone.

To be specific, Alibaba entered the AI ​​industry very early and has great ambitions. On the one hand, it imitates Microsoft and hoards large cards to occupy the computing power market. On the other hand, its subsidiary Tongyi Qianwen is trying to take the meta path and build Alibaba Cloud into a large-model application development platform.

In the existing AI application market, Alibaba has taken a multi-pronged approach, not only investing in a large number of star startups such as kimi, but also recently, there is news claiming that Alibaba’s AI applications " "Tongyi" was officially separated from Alibaba Cloud and merged into Alibaba Intelligent Information Business Group.

It was almost immediately announced that Ali would end his career in person, and the battle in the direction of To C would begin directly.

The reason why this competition at the end of the year has entered an accelerated channel is not unexpected from an industry point of view. On the 14th, Beijing time, at the NeurIPS 2024 conference, former OpenAI co-founder and SSI founder Ilya Sutskever gave a speech and stated that pre-training, as the first stage of AI model development, is about to end. On the side of computing power, the emergence of ASIC chips has also allowed giants to see the possibility of more cost-effective solutions.

Back in China, technology has gradually entered a gentle range from steep to steep, allowing domestic AI applications to see the possibility of quickly covering the market, and competing for the market has undoubtedly become the main theme of the next stage.

Whether it is the AI ​​e-commerce proposed by Jack Ma or the potential of AI in the content creation market that Zhang Yiming is interested in, it means that the founder of the company has focused on AI applications.

From the perspective of hardware and products, Alibaba and Byte will undoubtedly becomeThe protagonist of this contest. Both sides have their own advantages, and there are also trump cards that can "stuck" each other. The real battle may have just begun. Who can come out on top is still a mystery.

The beginning of this battle , it seems that we still need to start by re-establishing the AI ​​core by Byte.

On the morning of November 13, a piece of news about Alibaba’s decision to apply for arbitration that “former Tongyi Model employee Zhou Chang violated the non-compete agreement” quickly spread in the AI ​​circle. The protagonist of the incident, Zhou Chang, revealed the tip of the iceberg of ByteDance’s efforts to grab people on the AI ​​​​track.

According to reports, since mid-2023, Byte’s demand for people in the AI ​​​​direction has not stopped. "The targets are mainly the Alibaba Tongyi team, Baidu Wenxin and Feipiao teams, as well as the AI ​​Six Little Dragons including Dark Side of the Moon, Zhipu, etc."

What's interesting is that this The result of saturated development has obviously alarmed openAI on the other side of the ocean. The verge reported in December 2023 that open AI shut down the GPT accounts of some of ByteDance's products because open AI suspected that the latter was using GPT to train its own large models.

Judging from the results, Byte has not been affected by this, but has gained a lot. Since 2024, Byte has owned nearly 20 AI applications, and Doubao is already the native AI with the largest number of users in China. Mature product paths and huge traffic resources are the basis for the rapid development of Byte AI applications. At the same time, it will also become a key variable in this contest.

According to media reports, Doubao is not only copying the expansion path of buying, placing, and burning money, but also relies on the power of its parent company ByteDance to limit the influence of its opponents, including Kimi, on Douyin. The advertising push makes this battle seem to have entered a stage where the bayonet is seeing red.

AI applications exist in the c-end ecosystem. If they are directly restricted in the largest traffic pool, it will be a heavy blow to products that still need popular science and are highly substitutable.

But for Alibaba, there seems to be no solution. Among the companies it invests in, many companies have already made their own characteristics. For example, Kimi has the ability to quickly copy open AI technology, regardless of whether Whether it is the "thinking chain" reasoning technology embodied in the Kimi Discovery Edition or the visual thinking model k1, you can feel the differentiated product power once you get started.

From a larger perspective, according to industry experts, Alibaba Cloud imported a large number of NVIDIA cards (H series, A series) before the chip ban was tightened, and the total number must have exceeded 100,000. (Including cards from its overseas branches). This means that Alibaba Cloud has the absolute leading strength in terms of computing power in the country.

Part of the purpose of these computing power is for internal training.Many are rented out. According to industry insiders, ByteDance’s Volcano Engine is the one that rents the most Alibaba Cloud cards. Since Alibaba Cloud and Byte's large cards have great overlap, excluding the cards rented from Alibaba Cloud, Byte Volcano's large cards are only in the tens of thousands at most. This part of the computing power, to a certain extent, is difficult to support Byte's rapid development needs in AI applications.

At the same time, this also means that if Alibaba enters into a stock game with Byte, whether the priority of computing resources will still be open to the outside world will become a question.

Based on the current situation, Byte also seems to be looking for alternatives for computing power. In June, there were rumors that Byte and Broadcom were developing AI chips. Later, Byte denied it. Recently, there were media reports Broadcom CEO Hock Tan also mentioned in his performance outlook that the company's AI revenue will reach US$60-90 billion in 2027. According to Hock, the three main demand parties will contribute 60-90 billion. In addition to Google, Meta and other major Silicon Valley companies, Byte is also mentioned, which means that Byte will reach 20-30 billion in 2027. AI chip procurement demand in US dollars (ASIC + network).

From now on, it can be seen that Byte's counterattack may be underway.

From an event-driven perspective, whether it is recruiting AI talents with an 8-digit annual salary , whether it is burning money to increase its efforts to launch AI applications such as Doubao, or restricting the advertising of competing products Kimi, Byte has shown a greater degree of radicalism.

The reason is more like a result of the accumulation of internal and external pressures. From a historical review, in recent years, Byte has hardly been able to expand its boundaries in its competition with giants.

In the game track, Mu Tong and Chao Xi have experienced many years of development, and finally ended up with a large-scale contraction. Byte has made tens of billions of gold, but for the leaders Tencent, NetEase, and MiHoYo Hardly anything shakes. In local life, the same ending has happened. Byte has changed its leadership many times. Although it has made some gains in the in-store business and the direction of wine and travel, it is still difficult to shake Meituan's advantage overall.

Coming into this year, the slowdown in Douyin’s e-commerce and advertising business has almost declared that Byte has entered the moment of “running out of big tricks”.

According to Wanwan reports, in the first three quarters, the single-quarter advertising growth rate of Byte in China fell from about 40% to less than 17%, and the set goals were not achieved in the past two quarters. In e-commerce, Douyin e-commerce achieved a total GMV of nearly 500 billion yuan in January and February this year (generally combined statistics considering the Spring Festival holiday), with a cumulative year-on-year growth rate of over 60%. In March, the year-on-year growth rate dropped to 40%. %the following. After the second quarter, the growth rate further dropped to less than 30%. In 2023, the overall monthly growth rate of Douyin e-commerce can still be maintained at more than 50%.

From the perspective of business layoutLook, Tik Tok, which originally had high hopes, continues to face pressure after multiple rounds of negotiations. On December 6, local time, the U.S. Federal Court of Appeal made a ruling. A panel of three judges unanimously ruled 3:0, upholding the bill signed by current U.S. President Joe Biden in April. The ruling ruled that banning TikTok on national security grounds complied with the requirements of the First Amendment and rejected TikTok’s application to overturn the forced sale bill.

Pressure from Byte’s internal and external sources seems to be pouring on Zhang Yiming at the same time this year. Originally, APP Factory seemed to need to change its previous strategic path and find a direction with less resistance. At this moment, AI applications are undoubtedly another better choice.

From an environmental perspective, it seems to be an indisputable fact that technological change is slowing down.

On December 4, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman revealed on social media that there will be a live broadcast every day for the next 12 working days. In a total of 12 live broadcasts, the company will showcase some new products or samples. But after nearly a year, it seems that open AI still has not come up with the legendary GPT5. In May, Zhu Xiaohu of Jinshajiang Venture Capital said, "I think Ultraman is bragging, GPT5 is definitely not that close" is gradually being verified.

On the other hand, leading AI application companies, such as applovin, a US company that focuses on mobile advertising and game developer services, mainly serve governments and enterprises, relying on big data analysis and AI technology to help customers optimize The decisions made by Palantir are growing at a rapid pace. Not only has revenue reached a new high, but investors are also optimistic about its prospects.

Looking closely at the business of these companies, whether it is using AI to help developers improve the efficiency of advertising, or using AI for real-time analysis and decision support to meet the needs of enterprises and governments.

To some extent, it seems that it can match Byte's existing business. Looking further, Byte's radical layout may also have some defensive attributes.

According to the "Neocortex" report, Zhang Yiming has long realized the huge potential of AI in content distribution. The algorithm that Douyin is proud of is a concentrated expression of this direction. But he may not realize that AI has greater potential in content production, which may subvert its product form and competitive advantages based on content distribution technology.

Currently, many entrepreneurial projects in the industry are building a new generation of content communities based on generative AI, including text and picture communities that may replace Xiaohongshu, as well as subverting Douyin, TikTok short video community. If Byte cannot provide a similar or better level of content production technology, users are likely to move to other platforms.

Whether it is catching up after a swing, fear of missing out, or a solution to internal and external pressures, Byte seems to have to win this round of AI applications.

On December 18, multiple media simultaneously disclosed that Alibaba’s AI application “Tongyi” has recently Officially split from Alibaba Cloud and merged into Alibaba Intelligent Information Business Group.

Informed sources revealed that this adjustment includes the adjustment of Tongyi To C product managers and related engineering teams to the Alibaba Intelligent Information Business Group. After the adjustment, Tongyi PC and App team are on the same level as the intelligent search product "Quark", and the original Tongyi Laboratory remains within the Alibaba Cloud system.

This move is seen as a step for Alibaba to sort out its internal AI To C applications.

On the same day, Volcano Engine held a large beanbao model update. Among them, the price of the beanbao visual understanding model was 85% lower, directly bringing the visual understanding model into the "centi era".

Both sides seem to have chosen to show their swords at the same time, which also means that the competition for AI applications has officially entered the stage of close combat between giants.

Alibaba, which has officially entered the AI ​​application To C, undoubtedly has a lot to catch up with. According to reports, Tongyi App has not made many radical moves in growing customers and acquiring customers, and its product positioning is also more biased. Efficiency tool type. According to QuestMobile data, as of October 2024, Tongyi’s web page has approximately 10.12 million monthly visits. On the other hand, whether the lead in computing power will be equalized by new technologies may also be a direction that Alibaba needs to think about.

As for Doubao, whether the users brought about by burning money can settle down seems to be an urgent problem to be solved. Improving user stickiness and getting closer to the essential answer is to be useful to users. However, judging from the feedback from many social platforms, Doubao still has many areas for improvement.

To this day, the competition between multiple giants is reminiscent of the scene of each company chasing the trend in the mobile Internet era. However, today’s competition for AI applications does not seem to have the same land as in the past mobile Internet era. AI Although the application is favored by major manufacturers, it has participated in brutal market competition from the beginning.

In other words, if traditional search is enough, who will be motivated to experience the application of large language models.

At the same time, in the domestic application of AI, no high-margin, hematopoietic products have yet been explored. Due to various business needs and strategic development, major manufacturers have actively or passively joined this battle, but the actual effect will eventually evolve in what direction. As industry insiders say, there are not many certain things for the development of AI. , The sun is new every day, and the previous head may be overthrown due to the advancement of technology.

As for today, it is still unclear whether the radical giant will have a perfect ending.