The tariff shock triggered short-term selling, and the market panic index remained high, but the long-term logic of the crypto market has not changed.

1. Trump launched an "equality tariff" beyond expectations on April 2, adopting the "carpet-style coverage + one country, one tax rate" model, causing severe market turbulence.

2. In the first quarter of 2025, affected by Trump's tariffs, the market ushered in a panic selling due to lack of confidence. The large-scale selling in the market was not caused by poor company operations, but by the expectation of tariffs. The expectations of tariffs have brought great uncertainty, resulting in a high risk aversion sentiment in the capital market, and some large companies have withdrawn one after another.

3. Track benefits: the three main core tracks in the long term in the future: DEFI, stablecoins and US stock tokenization will lead crypto to a new height on the road to cooperating with the globalization of US financial. Hype track: The combination of AI, depin and crypto is also a hype track point worth paying attention to in this cycle.

1. The Wall Street economy generally believes that the economy will fall into recession after the "Liberation Day" on April 2, and the main reasons include: clear guidance is required, the degree of negative impact of tariffs is unknown, and concerns about Trump. The market is gradually digesting panic and the United States has shown economic resilience.

2. As the US dollar, interest rates and oil prices simultaneously decline (the clear target under the Becente framework), the process of easing financial conditions is accelerating at a pace leading the trend of risky assets for about 2-3 months. This signal indicates that technology stocks and cryptocurrencies are expected to usher in a structural market in the second quarter. If the trend continues, upward space may be further opened in the second half of 2025.

Cryptocurrencies are still affected by the aftermath of liquidity tightening caused by the strengthening of the US dollar in the fourth quarter of 2024 and the upward pressure on interest rates, but the tightening cycle is nearing its end. Current financial conditions are being rapidly loosened, and M2 growth rate is about to return to its historical peak. This round of decline is only a regular pullback in the cycle.

3. Data on world GDP growth analyzed through AI shows that the global economy has slowed significantly since mid-December last year. Declining liquidity is considered a major factor in the slowdown, and tariff uncertainty only exacerbates this situation.

4. Changes in U.S. bank reserves and their impact on economic liquidity emphasize the potential pressure and tensions in the current market. It is pointed out that the problem of market liquidity has not yet appeared. The current market pressure is not just the beginning, but the upcoming end stage, suggesting that the economic challenges that may be faced in the future. Analyzing changes in U.S. bank reserves through charts, it is pointed out that the steady state of bank reserves may indicate insufficient market liquidity.

referring to the increase in liquidity during the SVB crisis, indicating the direct impact of specific events on bank reserves.

5. Tom Lee analyzed the potential rebound momentum of the stock market, emphasizing cash reserves, reduced leverage and hedge fund positions to provide fuel for the rise, pointing out that despite the market fluctuations, there is still a large amount of funds to be invested, suggesting a strong rebound. It believes that despite the rising debt, the market has the potential to rise.

6. trump officially imposed tariffs on 185 on April 2, the largest tariff increase in the history of the founding of the United States. Affected by this news, the Nasdaq Futures Index fell sharply by more than 4% after the news was announced. Regarding tariffs, Michael Ferroly, chief economist at JPMorgan Chase, pointed out that although Trump's new tariffs can be statically calculated to bring about $400 million in revenue (accounting for GDP 1.3%), but it will push up the PCE inflation rate this year by 1-1.5%, and the medium-term inflation pressure will accelerate. The squeeze of consumer purchasing power may lead to negative growth in actual disposable income in Q2-Q3, which will trigger consumption contraction and the risk of recession has increased sharply.

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1.1FMG RWA, AI Index analysis

Among the many Index monitored by FMG, RWA Index is still in good shape, with monthly returns rising by about 6.6%, thanks to the delay in the future of the copycat season, with fewer investment opportunities in Web 3 and over-concentrated on BTC and stablecoins. OTC funds are bringing their vision back to the DeFi, asset management and strategy sectors. However, DeFi in a single Web 3 market is also highly risky, so products with real-world asset anchorage and DeFi attributes are currently being favored.

1.2 Encrypted market data

As of April 3, 2024, the total market value of cryptocurrencies was 2.61 trillion yuan, a slight decrease from US$2.68 trillion in the second half of February.

BTC dominant index: As of April 3, the current BTC dominant index was 62%, continuing to rise.

Budget Season Arrival Index: As of March 14, the current Budget Season Arrival Index is 14, which remains low compared to 14 in early March, which means that there are fewer opportunities for altcoins at present, and funds are mainly concentrated on BTC and other stablecoins, but it also means that altcoins have bottomed out.

1.3 Data such as CPI and market responses to the market

The short-term resilience of the US labor market cannot be concealed, and risks are hidden. Although the number of first-time unemployment claims in the United States fell in March, the unemployment rate stabilized at 4.1% and the low layoff rate supported the labor market, Trump's radical trade protection and plans to reduce the federal scale through spending cuts and large-scale layoffs are creating structural risks in the economy. The rise in unemployment benefits applications in Washington, D.C. and surrounding areas have exposed pressures for contractors to lay off workers, while a consumer survey by the World Federation of Large Enterprises shows that optimism about the job market has improved only slightly. Although the current data supports the Federal Reserve's path to maintain interest rates, uncertainty is eroding the momentum of economic expansion from multiple dimensions of supply chain, corporate investment and public expenditure. The fragility of the labor market under the appearance of "stable" may gradually become apparent with the impact transmission.

2.1 The United States completed a comprehensive audit of its holdings of Bitcoin and other crypto assets on April 5

The United States accelerates the construction of strategic reserves of digital assets, and the increased transparency of Bitcoin holdings may affect market expectations

The U.S. Treasury Department and federal agencies will disclose for the first time the details of its holdings of approximately 198,000 bitcoins (valued at approximately US$16 billion) and other crypto assets in accordance with the executive order signed by President Trump on March 6. This move aims to form a "strategic Bitcoin reserve" and clarify the scope of digital asset reserves (such as XRP, SOL, ADA, etc.).

2.2 The Ethereum Pectra upgrade is scheduled to be launched on May 7, optimizing pledge and wallet functions

2.2 left;">According to CoinDesk, Ethereum developers have officially set the online time of the Pectra upgrade main network to May 7, 2025. This upgrade is the largest system update since March 2024, including 11 improvement proposals (EIPs), focusing on wallet contract functions (improving ease of use and recovery) and EIP-7251 (increasing the staked cap for single nodes from 32 ETH to 2048 ETH). The upgrade has been successfully run on the Hoodi test network.

2.3 MARA Bitcoin production in March increased by 17% month-on-month, and its holdings increased to 47,531 BTC

According to MARA Holdings announced that in March 2025, a month-on-month increase of 17%, with an average daily BTC output of 26.8 pieces and a total output of 829 pieces of BTC. The company's total BTC holdings increased to 47,531 pieces. MARA said that its self-operated mining pool MARAPool has "lucky value" exceeded the network's average average by more than 10%, increasing block returns. At the same time, MARA is expected to complete the construction of a 40MW data center in Ohio by the end of April and continue to expand its layout of clean energy and computing power.

The US Securities and Exchange Commission believes that the pledge projects of Lido and Rocket Pool belong to securities

The long-term trend is still optimistic:

1.trump Impact: The tariff war is implemented, trump immediately stated that it will come to an end and will not continue to fight. The negative news of tariffs has been released in the short term. This year's legislation on crypto is gradually beneficial to the entire crypto track, especially after Trump signed the US Bitcoin strategic reserve, the moat is stronger and the general direction is more certain. In the next few monthsThere will be more positive changes in regulatory directions, including: eth pledge etf, more crypto etf, defi financial regulatory bill, and tax rate legislation on Bitcoin and crypto track.

2. Rate cut cycle: Currently in the interest rate cut cycle, it is obvious that this rate cut cycle will be particularly long-lasting, because the Federal Reserve will regulate interest rate cuts and no interest rate cuts based on specific economic conditions, affecting the capital market. At present, the United States is still a period of high interest rates, and there is still a long way to go before low interest rates or even zero interest rates. It may last for 2-3 years. There is also a qe that may open at the required time. From the perspective of the economic cycle, this bull market has just begun.

3. Track benefits: the three main core tracks in the long term in the future: DEFI, stablecoins and US stock tokenization will lead crypto to a new height on the road to cooperating with the globalization of US finance. Hype track: The combination of AI, depin and crypto is also a hype track point worth paying attention to in this cycle.