Goldman Sachs adjusted its expectations for the Fed's interest rate cut, believing that if the recession hits, the risk of the Fed's further relaxation of policies is higher. Goldman Sachs now expects the Fed to start a series of rate cuts in June — earlier than previously predicted in July — as part of a preventive easing cycle. Assuming that the United States avoids a recession, the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points three times in a row, reducing the federal funds rate to the range of 3.5%-3.75%. However, Goldman Sachs expects that if the economy does fall into recession, the Fed will adopt a more radical policy response, with a rate cut of about 200 basis points next year. Given the increased likelihood of a recession, the agency's current weighted forecast shows that a total of 130 basis points will be cut in 2025, up from the previous 105 basis points. As of last Friday's closing, this outlook was basically consistent with current market expectations. (Jin Shi)