BitMEX Arthur Hayes published an article saying: "The era of U.S. Treasury bonds (and relatively lighter U.S. stocks) as global reserve assets is over. The total U.S. Treasury bonds have increased by 85 times since Nixon decoupled the U.S. dollar from gold in 1971.
The United States has had to create a credit currency that matches global economic growth. This is good for some Americans and bad for others. Trump's election is driven by groups who think they have not shared the "prosperity achievements" of the past 50 years.
Even if Trump later softens his tariff stance, no Treasury Secretary or Head of State dares to bet that he will not repeat again. Therefore, the world cannot return to the same state as before. Each must fight for itself.
Even if Trump later softens his tariff stance, no Treasury Secretary or Head of State dares to bet that he will not repeat again. Therefore, the world cannot return to its former state. Each must fight for itself.
Gold will return to the stage as a neutral reserve asset. The US dollar will remain the global reserve currency, but countries will settle global trade by holding gold.
Trump has hinted that gold is tariff-free! In the new monetary system, gold must circulate freely and at low cost.
Today, those who have benefited greatly from the old system are still in the stage of denial, they are immersed in a fantasy: everything will eventually return to 'normal', which is extremely ridiculous.
Want to adapt to the return 1971 The global trade order that year before should buy gold, gold mining companies and Bitcoin (BTC). "
Decoupled from US stocksHe also said that the latest generation of US stock investors are too accustomed to structural upward bull markets. This is more like an exception than a global norm, and there are many examples that stocks continue to 10 years of horizontal/range volatility even with a good potential economic growth.
The market is expected to provide the perfect environment for the type of trader that can adapt quickly and thrive, but for many privately oriented strategies, the market will be extremely pessimistic. If Trump continues his choice, the expected returns for PE and VC should drop significantly.
Bitcoin holders need to learn to love tariffs, and Bitcoin may have escaped its correlation with the Nasdaq and may be transformed into the purest early warning indicator of fiat liquidity.
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Global economic imbalances will be alleviated by printing money, which is good for the mid-term performance of Bitcoin and gold.
He predicted that the Fed could cut interest rates soon and restart quantitative easing to cope with the economic impact, and suggested that the Bank of Japan expand QE through a weak yen, push the dollar against the yen to above 160, and stressed the importance of maintaining patience, flexibility and liquidity.
It can be said that Fed Chairman Powell is trapped in a fiscal-led "forced obedience" pattern, turning to a loose currency It is inevitable. He stressed that the Fed will be forced to restart quantitative easing (QE) to pay for the huge U.S. fiscal deficit, and the rebound in US dollar liquidity will drive Bitcoin to strengthen.
Hayes analyzed that although the market is still arguing about the pros and cons of tariffs, what is really worth celebrating in the crypto market should be the return of QE. He expects this process to begin this summer, noting that the Fed's slowdown in QT is a signal.
He concluded that fiscal dominance means the Fed will give up independence and prioritize ensuring The ability to raise funds at affordable interest rates is the core reason for the high inflation. Faced with the new round of fund release, Bitcoin will benefit from its "digital gold" attribute in the long term.