The "Tariff Liberation Day" that Trump has mentioned for several weeks is coming, and the global market is facing a new round of fluctuations. After U.S. stocks fell again on Monday after suffering a "Black Friday" last week, the Nasdaq fell 8.21% in March. The crypto market was also affected, with Bitcoin ending again with a 3.5% decline in March after recording an 18% decline in February. Ethereum was disappointing, with a cumulative decline of nearly half in the first quarter, and market sentiment was very negative. The macroeconomic deteriorates, and consumer confidence continues to decline. The PCE price index, the Fed's preferred inflation indicator released last week, showed that inflation is still stubbornly rising and consumer spending is more cautious. The monthly and year-on-year growth rate of core PCE in February was higher than expected, and the cost of core services rebounded sharply, driving the rise of "super core inflation".

As the key inflation indicators rebounded, the savings rate rose significantly, and consumer spending was once again lower than expected in February. The obvious trend is that individual consumers' spending on goods began to increase than the increase in service spending, indicating that the driving force that supported the growth of US GDP in the past two years - the consumption willingness of high-income people is also declining, and everyone has begun to be cautious about the future.

Also coincided with the consumption data, the latest consumer confidence index released by the University of Michigan fell to 57, and consumers' expectations for inflation for the next year rose to 5%, both of which were the worst levels in more than two years.

In the Fed, many voters spoke intensively, emphasizing that maintaining patience is a consensus, and also acknowledged that the deviation of inflation path from expectations and the rising uncertainty of tariff impacts has made the economic outlook in 2025 more blurred.

Consumers and businesses are weak in sentiment, the economy has entered a fragile stage, and the impact of risks is greater than in recent years. Goldman Sachs raised the probability of a recession in the United States to 35% in its report last week, and GDP growth slowed to 1.0%.

Trump tariffs have become a turning point in the market, and may be a peak of volatility this week

The "peer-align: left;">The "peer-align: left;">The "peer-align: left;">The "peer-align" tariffs that Trump plans to implement on Wednesday are the direct fuse of recent market turmoil. Goldman Sachs expects tariffs to be imposed on all trading partners by an average of 15%, a 5 percentage point increase from previous expectations, which may push up import costs and trigger global retaliation.

In its latest report, Citi summarized three main scenarios and gave corresponding market impacts. First, only reciprocal tariffs were announced, and the market response was relatively limited in this scenario; second, reciprocal tariffs plus value-added tax (VAT), the US dollar index may immediately rise by 50-100 basis points, and global stock markets may also fall; third, in addition to reciprocal tariffs and value-added tax, it also includes industry tariffs, which may be more severe in this scenario.

Because these have not been announced at present, given Trump's erratic and inconsistent style, the market is more positioning expectations, and this expectation often changes due to various news, which may become the peak of volatility this week. In addition, once The market may also reposition its positioning and bring more volatility.

Risk aversion is the main line of the current market

Whenever major events approach, investors tend to avoid risks. The US stock market's sales continued to be weak, and the big rebound last week was disastrous, and the crypto market traded poorly, and funds accelerated to safe-haven assets.

Bitcoin spot ETF has had its net inflows exceeding net outflows for 10 consecutive days since March 14. However, since March 21, its net inflows have not exceeded US$100 million. On March 28, the 10-day continuous net inflows ended, and institutional funds were continuously net outflows.

Trump will announce reciprocal tariffs at 3 a.m. on April 3. The market is on high alert. The market dominated by risk aversion sentiment is extremely fragile. If tariff measures are severe and trigger global trade frictions, risky assets may fall further. As the official partner of the Argentina team, the 4E Exchange provides USDT stablecoin financial products with an annualized return of 8%, providing investors with potential safe-haven options. In addition, 4E also supports bulk gold trading, allowing investors to seize potential growth opportunities for safe-haven assets in market turmoil.