Author: Daii Source: mirror

As a result of the PCE data in February, the price of Bitcoin fell below the 200-day index moving average. The loss of this key support level once again puts market sentiment under the shadow of the "bear market", see the figure below.

Faced with price pullbacks, repeated expectations of interest rate hikes, and intensified short-term volatility, many people began to doubt: "Are we coming to the end of the cycle again?"

But if you are willing to look slightly away from the market chart and look at today's Bitcoin from a longer-term and macro perspective, you may find that market turmoil does not mean that beliefs are shaken; price retracement does not mean that logic is invalid. In fact, we are just used to a seemingly "normal" order: money is printed, managed by banks, regulated by experts, and inflation is the "lubricant" of economic development.

But we rarely ask an essential question: When we measure time, store efforts, and plan for the future with continuously diluted currency, what exactly do we trust?

From the unmovable stone wheel in the depths of the Pacific Ocean to the glass bead trap in African colonies; from the collapse of the silver empire, to the dilemma of gold in space mining and nanotechnology; to the US dollar, a "global legal inflation experiment" that lasted for a century...

This article will take you across multiple dimensions of civilization, technology, finance and geography, and see a repeating trap:

The real danger is never deflation or inflation, but we mistakenly regard "monetary" as order itself.

When currency collapses again and again in the face of power, is it possible for us to find a new anchor? A value system that does not rely on violence, trust, and operates only on time and mathematics?

This answer may be exactly the direction that Bitcoin points to.

1. Echoes of history: those collapsed currenciesFrom stone coins to silver, from Africa to the East, from primitive tribes to imperial rule, there is a collapse of trust behind almost every history of currency rise and fall. Each collapse is closely related to an indicator - Stock-to-Flow Ratio (S/F) -. Therefore, it is necessary for us to understand what is - stock-increment ratio, which will be mentioned repeatedly in this article.

1.1 What is the stock-increment ratio?

Simply put, the stock-increment ratio refers to the ratio between the total amount (stock) of a certain asset and the amount (increment) of new output every year. You can understand it as: "How many years does this kind of thing take to double."

For example:

If the stock of a currency is 100,000 tons and the annual output is 1,000 tons, then its stock-to-increment ratio is 100:1;

If the stock of a currency is 50,000 tons, but it can issue an additional 10,000 tons per year, then its ratio is only 5:1.

The higher the number, the more "rare" the asset is; the lower the number, the easier it is to be copied quickly, and the easier it is to depreciate.

You can also remember its essence in this way:

Stock-increment ratio is a measure of the "respect for the future" of a currency.

This indicator is not only the foundation of hard currency, but also the "measurement rule" that understands every currency crash in this article. Next, we will use this "measurement ruler" to re-examine three classic currency collapses: from stone coins in the Pacific, glass beads in Africa, and silver tragedies in modern times and India.

1.2 Yap Island Stone Coins: When explosives smash the thousand-year faith

In the distant Pacific Ocean, there is an island called Yap. The islanders used a huge limestone disc—Rai Stonecurrency, as currency. This kind of stone wheel that weighs several tons (see the picture below) does not require moving, and the islanders can only "remember" their ownership to complete the payment.

This "accounting monetary system" that does not rely on banks and does not use paper and pen has been running stably for thousands of years because it has a golden characteristic: scarcity. Since these stone coins must be mined from neighboring islands and transported back in canoes, the process is cumbersome and the cost is extremely high, their "annual additional issuance" is extremely low, and the stock-increment ratio is as high as 100:1. As the Bitcoin Standard says, this is a key indicator for currency to live on.

Until 1903, an American businessman named O'Keeffer arrived with explosives and a steamer. He used industrial methods to make stone coins in batches, and the annual mining volume soared by 300 times, and the stock-increment ratio collapsed to 3:1. The thousand-year-old trust system was destroyed in an explosion. Rai stone coins have changed from a "public account book" to a pile of uncredible stones.

This change tells us that the credit of a currency does not come from the surface, but from the difficulty of its production. When a person can easily "print money", then even the sacred currency will become worthless.

The next currency crisis will not require explosives, just a machine, a set of molds—or a factory.

1.3 African glass beads: currency experiments crushed by industrial civilization

Similar fate also came to West Africa. The local area used "slave beads" as currency. These glass beads hand-blown by Venetian craftsmen (see the picture below). Due to their exquisiteness and scarcity, they have extremely high payment and storage functions in West African society. The stock-increment ratio once reached 50:1.

But with the advancement of the industrial revolution, Europe used mechanized assembly lines to increase the annual output of beads to tens of millions, and the additional issuance rate surged by 1,000 times. The colonists brought these new beads to Africa and exchanged cheap "currency" for the freedom of vast land, minerals and even people. It is estimated that 40 tons of glass beads have replaced 200,000 square kilometers of land in Congo. This is not a transaction, it is a colonization; it is not an equivalent exchange, but a monetary massacre.

When technology disintegrates the illusion of scarcity, currency turns into a tool of plunder.

The next victim is silver's turn.

1.4 Silver Trap: Currency Massacre in the Age of Globalization

At the end of the 19th century, an invisible silver storm swept the world. From 1870 to 1900, global annual silver production soared from 1500 to 6000, directly pushing the originally safe silver standard into the abyss of collapse.

In this currency disaster, the most affected were India:

The purchasing power of silver plummeted 78% in 30 years, merchants went bankrupt, farmers went bankrupt, and people's wealth was wiped out. In 1935, they were forced to abolish the silver standard and implement fiat currency reform;

The Indian rupee depreciated 56% against the pound, which was equivalent to a "blood transfusion" of colonialism to the suzerain state, while the Indian people fell into poverty and debt.

The Bitcoin Standard emphasizes that the root cause of the currency collapse is not price fluctuations, but its loss of "hardness". The softening of silver not only swallowed up the wealth of depositors, but also handed over the two ancient civilizations under the iron hoof of financial colonialism.

You may be worried that gold, whose prices are soaring, will it be the next silver? I'll tell you the clear answer later, yes.

1.5 Summary

From the stone turn to the beads, from silver to paper money, we found an amazing rule: once all currencies are out of control, it is only a matter of time before they collapse.

What is really swallowed is not the money itself, but the labor, time and hope of people.

Currency is not only a medium of transactions, but also a bridge between people and the "future". If the bridge collapses overnight, the long-term planning, dedication and social order of the entire civilization will also collapse.

Inflation is the invisible slaughter of civilizationKnife; scarcity is the lifeline of hard currency.

So, what is really scarce in this world?

2. What is scarce is not resources, but time?

Why does money "depreciate"? Why is every "high inflation" in history finally in social unrest? To solve these puzzles, we must break out of the bank books and interest rate curves and look at a more essential variable: scarcity.

Take gold as an example. Many people think that "gold is valuable" because it is "too scarce". But do you know? The total amount of gold in the earth's crust is about 60 trillion tons, and in theory each person can get 8,000 tons.

What really limits the supply of gold is not the earth's resources themselves, but how much time humans spend to mine it. On average, for every ounce of gold extracted, 30 tons of ore is processed, 100 cubic meters of water is consumed, and large-scale machinery and skilled workers are required.

As Julian Simon said: the only real scarcity is the time to be put into production.

In other words, gold is not "naturally scarce", it is "artificially scarce". You seem to be using gold to store value, but in fact you are relying on the credit of "others spending time mining". Once technological progress breaks this mining threshold, the value support of gold will be at stake.

This curse of "technology → inflation" is not an assumption, but a destiny of history.

Looking back on history, almost every once powerful currency—whether it is stone, copper coins, silver, or even fiat currency—cannot escape the same logical chain:

Technical progress → decline in mining costs → surge in supply → inflation → collapse of trust

For example, copper: between 1845 and 1873, copper prices plummeted by a full 80%. It is not because no one needs copper, but because steam mining equipment is widely popularized, and the annual copper output explodes like a flood.

In the 21st century, deep-sea drilling technology even allowed humans to go from 4,000 metersCopper ore is extracted under the sea, and the theoretical reserves have been expanded by 1,000 times. The "monetary status" of copper coins in history has gone forever.

So, any currency that relies on "physical scarcity" will enter the death spiral once it is technologically broken.

Since we have mentioned gold, we will use the above theory to predict the future of gold.

3. Gold Dilemma: Crisis in the interstellar mining era

In the past two thousand years, humans have used gold as the ultimate "hard currency", and an important reason is that it is "hard enough to dig". It is not like shells, banknotes, or glass beads, which can be produced by anyone; it requires mines, labor, and equipment to be refined bit by bit.

But have you ever thought that this logic can still stand firm in the space age?

3.1 Asteroid Mining: the approaching sword of Damocles

NASA once estimated that an asteroid called "Psyche" (pictured below) may contain up to $7,000 trillion in metal resources - a large part of which is gold and platinum.

7000 What is the concept of trillions? It is equivalent to fifty times the current GDP of mankind, enough to buy all the , companies and real estate on the planet.

More importantly, SpaceX's ongoing Starship program has pushed the cost of a rocket launch to less than $2 million. You heard it right, it's cheaper than a business jet. This means that as long as space mining technology is mature, a large amount of metal can be transported back to Earth like vegetables.

Once gold becomes as easy as iron, can it still maintain its "storage value" status? Of course not.

The current stock-increment ratio of gold is approximately 56:1. What's the meaning? That is, the global gold stock is about 200,000 tons, and the annual new output is about 3,500 tons, which is a "controllable scarcity".

But if it reaches 2Around 070, humans could transport 100,000 tons of gold back from space every year, and this ratio would plummet from 56:1 to 2:1 or even lower.

You know now why Bitcoin likes to say that it is "harder than gold"? Because of the scarcity of gold, it may be defeated by technology in your lifetime.

If gold can no longer rely on "difficulty to dig" to maintain its value, is it possible to rely on "demand" to stabilize its price?

3.2 Nanotechnology: Turn gold into a "consumable"?

A gold investor may say: What are you afraid of? Even if there is too much purchase, demand will rise.

This statement may not be true in the past, but it may really come true in the future - especially in the fields of nanotechnology and industrial catalysis.

As shown in the gold nanoparticles in the figure below, their stability and catalytic activity come from the electrical bilayer structure and surface potential distribution. This technological breakthrough is the driving force behind the growth of industrial gold demand. Gold is changing from a "storage symbol" to a "industrial consumable".

At present, 1 gram of gold can be made into a 500 square meter nanocatalytic membrane, which is widely used in new energy, medicine and electronic manufacturing. Once this technology is widely used, the annual demand for gold by global industries has soared from 4500 tons to 12000 tons, almost tripled.

And once gold is "used" instead of staying quietly in the vault like jewelry, it will truly become a "consumable" - which sounds more beneficial to its value, right?

Don't worry, there is another variable:

The recycling efficiency of industrial gold is explosively improving

For example:

Gold made into electrocatalytic membranes;

Gold made into nanoparticles for drug delivery;

The gold thin layers used for chip manufacturing, sensors, and electrodes;

They are usually fragmented, mixed, buried deep in the product. In the past, the recycling cost was extremely high and the recycling rate was very low, which often means "disappearing". However, in recent years, with the application of microseparation equipment, new low-temperature solvents, and even microbial gold extraction technologies, the recycling efficiency of industrial gold is rapidly improving: the gold recovery rate in some high-precision electronic devices has increased from less than 30% to more than 90%; the gold extraction cost in used mobile phone circuit boards has dropped by 50%, becoming an important source of "urban mine" development; the "modular recycling bin" may even appear in the future to achieve rapid local gold withdrawal of industrial waste.

What does this mean?

The industrial gold that was originally "thinking to be consumed" has not actually disappeared. It is only temporarily difficult to recycle – and once the technology matures, they are constantly returning to the market.

So, when you see the surge in demand for industrial gold, don't rush to conclude that "gold will be more scarce."

Because in the long run, these industrial golds are likely to be "borrowed" and not "used" - they may be reclaimed in the future and become supply again.

Seeing this, you should understand that although the demand for industrial gold may expand, technology can accelerate mining and recycling - double kill.

So, the decline in the future stock-increment ratio is a certain thing, but this process is relatively slow. Moreover, the depreciation rate of gold is never comparable to that of fiat currency, so it seems that the price of gold is still rising.

3.3 Geographic: Gold reserves are not actually yours

Unfortunately, there is a knife hanging over the heads of gold holders, and that is geopolitical risk.

Do you know where the global central bank gold reserves are? It is New York, the United States. According to the Bank for International Settlements, about 60% of the world's official gold reserves (about 21,000 tons) are concentrated in the New York Federal Reserve vault, as shown in the figure below.

You heard it right, including Germany, the Netherlands, Japan, and even some of the early gold was "stuck" in the hands of the Federal Reserve.

What does this mean? As long as there is geographic conflict, the United States can theoretically use the Emergency Banking Act to "freeze" gold reserves in other countries like in 1933.

This is no longer "if", but "it has happened". In 1971, Nixon closed the golden window and directly ended the Bretton Woods system, you shouldn't forget.

Gold may be strong for a while, but with the continuous development of technology, it can no longer be the safe haven that is "forever trustworthy".

Next, we will uncover the largest and most hidden currency trap at present: the US dollar.

4. US dollar trap: the collapsed hegemony

What really makes the world fall into the quagmire of inflation is not stone coins, silver dollars, or gold, but the name with the "IN GOD WE TRUST" printed on it - the US dollar. Note that the US dollar is just a representation, and others may be worse.

4.1 How was the hegemony of the US dollar formed?

In 1944, a "Currency Yalta Conference" that determined the global destiny was held in Bretton Woods, New Hampshire, USA. 44 representatives signed an agreement to hand over the anchor point of the global monetary system to the Americans.

The structure of this new system is simple, but extremely exquisite:

The currencies of various countries anchor the US dollar;

Dollars anchor gold, fixed at $35 per ounce.

In other words, the US dollar is not a common fiat currency, but a global supercurrency of "equivalent gold". The United States has become the world's "monetary pope" and has the "theocratic power" to control the value order of the world.

Why do they dare to play like this? Because at that time, the United States had a control of 75% of the world's gold reserves (about 22,000 tons, as shown in the arrow position below), while Europe was fighting, Japan was in ruins, and in turmoil.

But how long can this set of myths "dollar equals gold" last?

I only lasted for less than 30 years.

In 1971, the United States' overseas military spending and welfare expenditures were getting higher and higher, but gold was spent less and less. In just 20 years, 60% of its gold reserves were lost.

End, Nixon ordered: "Golden Window Close" - the US dollar was decoupled from gold. The world has completely entered the "fiat currency era", that is, the banknotes in your hand are actually no longer anchored to anything, they all rely on one word: "faith".

From that year, the "gate" of inflation was completely opened.

In 1971, the total global base currency was only US$480 billion;

By 2025, this number became US$200 trillion, an entire increase of 416 times.

Do you think the US dollar is behind the "reserves"?

Wrong. Behind it are money printing machines, government bonds, and an increasingly valuable "future".

4.2 The four pillars of US dollar hegemony

Many people think that the reason why the US dollar is strong is because the US economy is strong. It is true, but it is just the surface. What truly supports the global hegemony of the US dollar is what it buildsFour "financial pillars".

The first pillar is the petrodollar system.

In 1974, the United States and Saudi Arabia reached a secret agreement: global oil can only be denominated in US dollars. In other words, if the whole world wants to buy oil, it must first buy US dollars.

This trick turns energy into a "dollar demand". As long as the earth still burns oil, no one will want the US dollar. In 2025, global energy trade reached US$7.5 trillion, and these are almost all "dollar liquidity pools".

The second pillar is the SWIFT settlement system.

SWIFT covers 200, 11,000 financial institutions and is the world's largest cross-border payment network. And the core server of this system is in Belgium - but control is in Washington.

In other words, the United States has the right to "ban" any cross-border transfer. This is not a guess, it is reality. Iran, Russia, and Afghanistan were all kicked out of SWIFT at critical times, and global funds were frozen.

The third pillar is the US debt pool.

The US Treasury bonds held by global central banks once reached US$7.5 trillion, accounting for 59% of global foreign exchange reserves. This is like a collective purchase of "dollar insurance" by central banks around the world.

What is even more terrifying is that the more people buy US debts, the more dare the United States borrows, the more the US dollar is, the more it is, the more you cannot leave.

The fourth pillar is more than 1,000 US military bases around the world.

In 2023, the U.S. military expenditure reached $916 billion, exceeding the 11 in the bottom. Do you think this is geopolitical security? No, it is actually "the US dollar arms margin."

Backed by these four pillars, the hegemony of the US dollar locks the global economy like a maze. You know the direction, but you have no way to escape.

But now, itThe cracks began.

4.3 Two major rifts: tearing the US dollar's robe

Once upon a time, the US dollar was wearing four-fold armor - oil, SWIFT, US debt and US military - unstoppable. But now, this golden robe is tearing apart from both directions at the same time.

The first crack: debt addiction, is rotting from the inside

As of the beginning of 2025, the total federal debt in the United States had exceeded $36 trillion, equivalent to 127% of GDP. Interest expenses alone will exceed $952 billion, almost staking the military budget and approaching the sum of education and health care spending.

And, this debt clock is jumping by $40,000 every second. The Congressional Budget Office predicts that by 2052, every 3 yuan tax the United States will pay for interest.

This is not debt management, it is drinking poison to quench thirst, it is a level Ponzi game. When interest swallows up the fiscal policy, when deficits become the norm, how many points are left for the US dollar's credit?

The second crack: the wave of de-dollarization is storming outside

Once upon a time, central banks around the world regarded the US dollar as the "last anchor." In 2000, 70% of the global foreign exchange reserves were US dollars. But by the third quarter of 2024, this ratio has fallen below 58%, and is still continuing to decline.

In 2023 alone, he reduced his holdings of US$100.4 billion in government bonds; and Saudi Arabia, Brazil, India, etc. have also promoted local currency settlement to bypass the US dollar channel.

At the same time, cryptocurrencies are also rising into a "financial neutral zone." At the beginning of 2025, the total market value of global cryptocurrencies exceeded US$2.8 trillion, and more and more companies and individuals began to use it to circumvent the US dollar-dominated sanctions and liquidation system.

This torrent of de-dollarization is no longer just a geopolitical confrontation, but a trio of technological revolution + financial decoupling + sovereign awakening.

When the US dollar isIf use is "forced out" rather than "trust selected", then its hegemony has actually begun to collapse.

4.4 Summary: Self-contradictory of the dollar hegemony

Since decoupling of gold in 1971, the dollar has embarked on a paradoxical path:

If it wants to be a global currency, it must "release water" to the world; but the more water is released, the more diluted the credit, which will shake its hegemonic position.

This is the core of the "Triffen Paradox": in order to maintain the status of a reserve currency, the US dollar must output; but the more output, the faster the collapse.

Countries around the world have seen the ending of this game, but no one dares to leave first- because the US dollar is not a better choice, but the only choice.

Until now, we finally began to ask:

Is there a currency that is not supported by power, not maintained by trust, but only operates by code and mathematics?

Is there a currency that can completely end this cycle of inflation?

5. Bitcoin breaks the deadlock: a new currency paradigm under mathematical tyranny

We have uncovered the "future dilemma" of gold and also seen the "systemic cracks" of the hegemony of the US dollar. At this time, you may ask: Bitcoin, without the protection of the army, does not rely on endorsement, why can it break the deadlock with code and computing power alone?

Low, let's analyze it one by one.

5.1 Absolutely scarce code seal

The world's number of Bitcoins has a maximum of 21 million. It is not the "theoretical limit", but the physical reality written in the code.

It uses an encryption algorithm called SHA-256, which produces a block every 10 minutes, and the Bitcoin reward in each block will be halved every 4 years until it finally approaches zero.

What does this mean?

means that even if there are 1,000 Federal Reserves and 100 million mining machines on the earth, it will not be able to create the 21,000,001st Bitcoin. For the first time in this world, there is a currency whose "renewal speed" has nothing to do with human greed, but is only linked to time itself. So we say that Bitcoin is the first time-anchored currency in human history.

5.2 Security wall that resists quantum strikes

Many people are worried: Will quantum computers make Bitcoin "outdated"? Cracking the private key and taking over the entire chain?

The technology community has discussed this question for more than ten years, and the answer is actually very clear: First of all, the security basis of Bitcoin is not a person, but a "collective verification" of the entire network. Even if quantum computing can crack the private key, everyone will automatically refuse the transfer as long as the coin has not been used.

Secondly, the Bitcoin community has already prepared a "quantum-level upgrade" solution, including Lamport signature algorithm, multi-signal protection and key replacement mechanism.

More important is: if you want to tamper with Bitcoin through "computing power attack", the attacker must control more than 50% of the world's mining computing power at the same time.

As of February 2025, the hash rate of Bitcoin's entire network has reached 954.16 EH/s, that is, 954 billion encryption operations are performed per second, see the figure below.

In order to launch a 51% attack, the attacker needs to form a computing power system with more than 477 EH/s.

What kind of concept is this? Even if all supercomputers in the world are added together, they cannot perform a small part of this type of dedicated hashing task. Because the Bitcoin network relies on thousands of dedicated mining machines (ASICs), they can execute trillions of SHA-256 operating systems per second.

So, Bitcoin is not invincible, but it is powerful enough--so powerful you don't even have to trust it, it can run well.

5.3 The immortal gene of distributed networks

You may remember that when Russia was deprived of SWIFT qualification, its banking system was almost shut down. You may also remember that when the Afghan regime changed, all US dollar accounts were frozen and overnight, the treasury became empty shells.

The design of Bitcoin is to deal with these "center crashes". It is decentralized, without a headquarters, without switches, and no one has the final say. There are more than 21,600 nodes worldwide, distributed in more than 100; the mainnet code is open source and can be verified, copied, and spread by anyone.

You say it is not a currency? Perhaps it is more like a living creature, a "free body" that lives between the Internet and time.

It does not require military escort or bank custody. It only requires you to remember a string of private keys to control all your wealth anytime, anywhere.

5.4 Activate the time machine that wants to save

High inflation will make people short-sighted. Today's money is not worth it tomorrow, so why not spend it first?

But Bitcoin is the opposite. Because it deflation, because it is scarce, because it has no boss, it inspires a very rare emotion: willing to wait. A Bitcoin holder often chooses to "stay unmoved for a long time", just like planting a seed and waiting for it to sprout slowly. Data shows that more than 65% of Bitcoin have not moved for more than a year, and many addresses have not even been moved for 10 years.

This is exactly the greatest thing about Bitcoin: it is not an investment product, a storage tank of value, and a reversal of time preference.

5.5 Summary: Bitcoin is not the answer, but the starting point

Bitcoin is not perfect. Its price fluctuates dramatically, its technology is still evolving, and its system is not yet mature. But it at least achieved the contour of the closest humanity to the "ideal currency" ever:

Its total amount cannot be changed and does not change by the will of power;

It has no issuer,There are no confiscators;

It cannot be artificially inflation, nor will it be destroyed with war and regime;

It can be carried at any time and circulated around the world without permission and trust;

It is not based on "credit", but on "mathematics and consensus".

From Yap stone wheels, African glass beads, silver storms to the hegemony of the US dollar, we have placed our hopes on power and trust again and again, and witnessed them collapse again and again.

Bitcoin is the first time we have handed over the foundation of currency to code, time and transparent rules.

Conclusion

The real scarcity is never metal, banknotes or gold reserves, but time we can be freely controlled.

Bitcoin is not perfect, but it provides at least one possibility:

Don't depend on trust, only rules and transparent time consensus.

When we live in an era where inflation is beautified, debt is condoned, and wealth is silently plundered, we need not only the courage to fight the currency trap, but also a monetary philosophy that can align with time.

This is the core proposition of "Bitcoin Standard":

Return to the time standard and escape from the currency trap.

This revolution in economic order may have just begun.

And we are witnesses and may also be selectors.