Author: Vince Quill, CoinTelegraph; Compiled by: Baishui, Golden Finance

Nic Puckrin, market analyst and founder of Coin Bureau, said that the probability of the United States falling into a recession in 2025 is 40%.

In an interview, the analyst said that while an economic recession is unlikely to occur, the recession and current macroeconomic uncertainty will create an environment that will cost risky assets such as cryptocurrencies. "Trump and his advisers said they did not completely deny the recession, which means it is absolutely possible, but for the moment, I wouldn't say that the recession is possible, but the possibility has risen a lot." The analyst noted that while President Donald Trump did not deliberately try to trigger an economic recession, some of his actions - such as cutting federal jobs and cutting spending to balance budgets - could inadvertently lead to an economic recession.

Puckrin pointed out that macroeconomic uncertainty is the main reason for the recent decline in the U.S. dollar index (DXY) as investors move capital to better opportunities for European capital markets and seek to get rid of the economic uncertainty that currently plagues the U.S. market.

The U.S. dollar index, which tracks the U.S. dollar trend, fell sharply in March 2025. Source: TradingView

President Trump imposed tariffs on U.S. trading partners to shock the cryptocurrency market, causing a sharp drop in altcoin prices, and Bitcoin prices pulled back 24% from a high of more than $109,000 on January 20.

Tariffs and concerns about a prolonged trade war also turned market sentiment to extreme fear—in stark contrast to the excitement after Donald Trump’s re-election in the United States in November 2025 and his inauguration on January 20.

Bitcoin prices have been struggling due to the trade war, and are currently trading below the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA). Source: TradingView

Nansen research analyst Nicolai Sondergaard said the cryptocurrency market will feel the tariff pressure until April 2025.

The analyst added that if countries can successfully negotiate the lifting of tariffs, or Trump softens his stance, the market will recover.

10x Research Founder Markus Thielen Recently stated that the price of BTC bottomed out in March 2025 as U.S. President Donald Trump softened his trade tariff rhetoric, indicating a possible reversal.