Goldman Sachs reported that in its research report early this morning, it significantly raised its expectations for U.S. tariffs in 2025 and warned that escalating trade tensions may seriously affect economic growth, inflation and employment. The bank currently expects the average U.S. tariff rate to rise by 15 percentage points in 2025, higher than the previous 10 percentage points baseline. The main reason for the increase is that the comprehensive "reciprocal tariffs" announced by Trump on April 2 are expected to impose an average of 15% tariffs on all U.S. trading partners, and the average actual impact of the tariffs is expected to increase by 9 percentage points. Goldman Sachs raised its core PCE inflation expectations by 0.5 percentage points to 3.5% by the end of 2025, citing the impact of rising import costs on inflation. GDP growth is expected to slow to 1.0% in the fourth quarter, down 0.5 percentage points from previous expectations, and the unemployment rate is expected to climb to 4.5% by the end of the year. Goldman Sachs raised the probability of a U.S. recession in 12 months to 35%, citing weak sentiment from consumers and businesses, and there are signs that policymakers may be more willing to accept near-term economic pain in pursuit of broader policy goals. As real income growth has slowed down, the economy may be entering a more vulnerable stage, with sentiment and policy risks dragging the economy more than in recent years. (Jin Shi)