BTC suddenly fell over the weekend and came to around 82k. The crypto market is in a miserable and miserable state. This March, BTC has stepped on the 10-month moving average of 78.5k, and now it seems that it is about to test again. Generally speaking, the 10-month moving average will not break through the bull market. If you step on it, it will often turn into a bear.

Of course, ETH (Ethereum) is a hundred times more tragic than BTC. I really don't know if I don't look at it, I was shocked when I saw it. Last February, ETH closed at 2222. Not to mention falling below the 10-month moving average of 3k, even the 30-month moving average of 2.3k fell below. It has continued to fall since March, and has returned to $1,850 so far, and it is even deeper below the 30-month moving average.

You must know that the last time ETH fell below the 30-month moving average was in June 2022, when the crypto market officially confirmed its entry into a bear market from a technical perspective. After that, ETH continued to run below the 30-month moving average, and it was not until December 2023 that it broke through the moving average resistance upward and returned to the bull market.

From June 2022 to December 2023, a whole year and a half have passed.

Now, ETH is back to $1,850 again. This height was reached as early as February 2021. Since then, spring has gone and autumn has come, and it has been four years in a flash. During this period, ETH reached more than $4,500. From a distance, it seems to have been fluctuating sideways between more than 1,000 and more than 4,000, as if it had become a stablecoin.

Chaolian vaguely remembers that when he increased his position of ETH of 4,000 yuan at the end of 2021, the sound of a big shot in a certain industry singing ETH is starting with 10,000 yuan, and 30,000 yuan is not the top. Jiaolian is actually quite "conservative" and is planning to reduce his position after waiting for 10,000 yuan.

The end of the game was waiting for 3 years, and I did wait for the "one-word" ETH, but it was not more than 10,000 yuan, but more than 1,000 yuan.

I think the market has given you opportunities. When ETH broke through 4500 at the end of 2021, Jiaolian used ETH to make LPs, and all of them were automatically sold to USDT. As a result, when ETH fell back to $4,000, I couldn't help but replace all these USDTs with ETH - ETH of $4,000.

Even so, the market has not failed to give the teaching chain an opportunity to "unconfiscate".

ETH briefly reached around $4,000 in March 2024 and December 2024. However, Jiaolian rejected the "return to profit" of the "Three Treasures of Leeks" and decided to continue to hold on and take it firmly. Unfortunately, ETH cannot turn a stable winner into a stable winner.

Interestingly, from 2020 to the present, Jiaolian has written many articles one after another. Interested readers can search and verify the "Liu Jiaolian" official account. From Ethereum's "self-limiting" problem, to questioning the EIP-1559 combustion model, and various doubts about PoS after Ethereum PoW switched to PoS, they are basically skeptical and worried, so that the comment section of that year was filled with fierce criticism from ETH fans.

But Jiaolian has done a lot of ETH in action and has held ETH positions for a long time.

This is obviously not the unity of knowledge and action. This is done on purpose. While smiling bitterly, Teaching Chain found a self-comfortable statement called "cognitive hedging".

The so-called cognitive hedging means that actions and cognition come in the opposite direction. In this way, if ETH rises sharply, then you have a wrong perception, but your position is profitable. If ETH does not rise or even fall, then the position will be lost, but the cognition has been verified. Anyway, I won't lose money. This is hedging.

But from the perspective of money theory, losing a position means losing a loss. The way to comfort yourself is actually to "pay the tuition fee".

Thanks to Vitalik Buterin, the "Good Teacher", the founder of Ethereum and the actual controller of the Ethereum Foundation.

Some people are still thinking about it, claiming that Ethereum is about to usher in a major turning point.

In fact, a major turning point in Ethereum has already happened. It is the moment when it abandons PoW and turns to PoS.

At this time, we will take out the classic illustrations from the article "Ethereum's Life Dilemma" in 2024.8.27:

The only thing that needs to be updated in this picture last year is that ETH/BTC has almost halved from 0.04 in the picture at that time, falling to 0.022.

What is the level of 0.022? Nearly the lowest level since 2018. During this period, it only fell to a local low of 0.016 around September 2019. The highest level reached a historical high of 0.122 at the beginning of 2018. Today's 0.022 fell 82% from this high.

This means that when ETH was not replaced with BTC at the time, it is equivalent to losing 80% of BTC today.

The ETH position worth 10 BTC back then insisted on holding it, traveling through the bull and bear market, and today it was worth only 1.8 BTC.

Why can a PoW to PoS cause such a devastating blow to value? Teaching Chain didn’t know if Vitalik Buterin had expected this.

The explanation of this question may be inconsistent. But Jiaolian feels that a possible key reason is that the PoS node has no support for the currency price at all.

When PoW was converted to PoS, countless people defended PoS, saying that PoS should pledge tokens, so there was a capital cost, which was the same as PoW's payment computing power cost.

But if you put yourself in your shoes and feel it, it will be very different.

Tokens produced by PoW mining, such as BTC, have real physical production costs. When the mining machine returns the cost, it is actually operating expenses, including electricity, water, site and other expenses, mainly electricity costs.

The key is that with this cost, coupled with the non-corrosion of BTC, when the price breaks through the mining cost line, miners tend to hold coins and wait for a better price instead of rushing to sell mining income, thus tightening supply and supporting prices.

And PoS is to save coins and generate interest. The pledger will feel that the pledge income is free and tend to sell it. Just like when you use money to manage your finances, make profits, and spend money, you will be more daring to consume.