Pectra Upgrade Countdown, can Ethereum break 4000 again? ——Compilation of the views of space guests on March 27

Ethereum, as the "king of smart contracts" of the blockchain ecosystem, was once the core driving force of the last bull market. However, its market performance has continued to be sluggish in the past two years, with problems such as declining on-chain activity, emerging whale sell-offs, and weak new demand growth. In a recent space hosted by Golden Finance, three senior practitioners and senior chain gamers [Sazu Jushino]

C Labs Partner[Demir]

C Labs Partner[Demir]

Ethereum's technological upgrade, market positioning, compliance prospects, etc.

1. How can Pectra upgrade improve the scalability and efficiency of Ethereum? Can it revitalize market confidence and improve Ethereum's sluggish situation?

Hoshino: Ethereum's current dilemma stems in part from the excessive competition and weak narrative in the Layer 2 ecosystem.

"Although there are many projects in Layer 2, the actual application scenarios are limited, and user needs have not been truly stimulated." He believes that if Ethereum wants to make a breakthrough, it needs to break out of the original framework and embrace AI technology. Combination of AI and blockchain: Under the global wave of AI technology, Ethereum can explore the deep combination of smart contracts and AI models, such as developing a decentralized AI training platform or data market, injecting new narratives into the on-chain ecosystem.

Performance bottlenecks to be solved: Although the Pectra upgrade introduces functions such as pledge upper limit increase, the main network performance optimization progresses slowly. "It will take several years from the proposal to the implementation, and the daylily is cold."

Little Fisherman: The future of Ethereum lies in the real-world asset tokenization (RWA) and compliance process.

RWA track potential: "The Trump family issued stablecoins on Ethereum and tokenization of US debt, which proved thatEthereum is still regarded as a 'World Bank' level infrastructure. "If the RWA ecosystem is mature, it can attract traditional institutional funds to enter the market.

Breakthrough in compliance: If the US stablecoin bill is passed, it will promote Ethereum to become the preferred chain for the issuance of compliant assets, "but the premise is to solve the problem of data consistency on and off-chain."

Demir: Bureaucracy drags down technology iteration

"The upgrade efficiency is inefficient and internal bureaucratization is serious, resulting in technology iteration far lags behind competitors. ”

Case analysis: Uniswap has tried to promote the reform of Ethereum Gas fee, but due to the lengthy foundation process, it finally chose to set up its own portal, reflecting the reality that ecological innovation is hindered.

Foreign enemy threats: High-throughput public chains such as Solana and Aave continue to erode market share, and Ethereum's "settlement layer" positioning is in danger.

2. The market is full of disappointment with Ethereum, and whales are frequently leaving the market to sell Ethereum. What profound impact will it have on Ethereum's future market trend and ecological development?

Demir pointed out through data that the Ethereum/BTC exchange rate has fallen from 0.08 in 2021 to 0.025, and may fall below 0.01 within the year. "The dissolution of the consensus among big investors is the main reason - they found that innovation has turned to other chains. ”

Stake diversification crisis: The top ten wallet positions account for more than 30%, and the risk of market makers controlling the market has exacerbated retail investors’ panic.

The lack of pledged ETFs: The current Ethereum ETF cannot support pledge returns, and it is not attractive compared to traditional financial products. "Institutional funds would rather choose Bitcoin ETFs."

3. Faced with the weakening of new demand for Ethereum, what are the feasible strategies that can stimulate the growth of new demand?

Little Fisherman believes that Ethereum needs to reshape the "money-making effect" to attract new funds: If the US NFT financing legalization bill is implemented, it may restart the NFT boom and drive on-chain activity. Abstract Account (AA): By simplifying on-chain operations (such as no Gas fee transactions), the entry threshold for Web2 users can be lowered, "playing DeFi like using WeChat payment."

Hoshino: "Ethereum is a barometer of altcoins." If Ethereum prices rebound, it may indicate the arrival of a copycat season. "But the current market funds either entrify Bitcoin or deposit stable coins, lacking the motivation to take risks."

4. How much does the macroeconomic improvement need to reach before Ethereum is expected to return to US$2,500 and stabilize support?

Demir: Bitcoin needs to rise to $100,000. Demir proposes through historical data modeling that the Ethereum/BTC exchange rate is strongly correlated with the Bitcoin price. "If Bitcoin surges to $100,000 this year, Ethereum may briefly hit $2,500, but it remains bearish in the long run."

Little Fisherman: Pledged ETFs may be a turning point

"If Ethereum pledged ETFs are approved, the income structure will be completely changed." Little Fisherman predicts that this move may push Ethereum price to exceed $10,000, "traditional funds' preference for interest-bearing assets is far beyond pure speculative targets."

The three guests unanimously agreed that Ethereum needs to abandon the "big and complete" narrative and turn to the vertical field:

Little Fisherman: Focus on the RWA+DeFi combination and create benchmark cases for real assets such as US debt and real estate.

Demir: Bet on ZK-Rollup technology to attract financial institutions through privacy calculations.

Hoshino: Take advantage of the AI ​​track to develop an on-chain AI model trading market.

Conclusion: The game between faith and reality

Ethereum is standing at a crossroads: on one side is the real dilemma of slow technology iteration and bureaucracy, and on the other side is the imagination space brought by new narratives such as RWA, AI, and compliance. As the little fisherman said: "The pessimism of retail investors is not important. What matters is whether the dealer is willing to tell a new story." If Ethereum can seize the wave of compliance and break through the performance bottleneck, it may be expected to repeat the "phoenix nirvana"; on the contrary, its status as the "king of public chains" may be replaced by a more dynamic ecosystem.

Live playback link: https://x.com/i/spaces/1lPJqMWnRdAJb

Note: This article is based on live discussions and does not constitute investment advice. The market is risky, so be cautious in making decisions.