Source: Daoshuo Blockchain

Whether it is in the crypto ecosystem or the non-crypto ecosystem, people who have firm belief in Bitcoin (including us of course) have long believed in it:

Bitcoin is "digital gold."

I have never doubted this view.

But over the years, the increasing convergence of Bitcoin and US stock trends and the increasing divergence from gold trends have made me begin to doubt this view.

Because if Bitcoin is really "digital gold" as we imagined, then after so many years, the group has expanded so much, and the holders have gone from being a very niche geek in the early years to becoming more and more popular institutional investors, their consensus has become many times stronger, and people's belief in it has been many times stronger. Under this reinforcement, it should behave more and more like gold.

But if we think about the performance of Bitcoin in recent years, we will find that in fact it has not performed more and more like gold.

A typical manifestation of gold is that when the world becomes more and more chaotic, people's confidence in fiat currency (especially the US dollar) or the existing financial system becomes more and more fragile, people will embrace gold and abandon fiat currency.

If we go back to a not-too-long history, we can see this effect of gold more clearly.

Before the collapse of the Bretton Woods system, fiat currencies around the world anchored the US dollar and the US dollar anchored the gold. In the earlier industrial revolution, the British pound and many capitalist-developed fiat currencies around the world directly anchored gold, which is the gold standard we are familiar with.

In those times, all measurements of value were ultimately measured in gold.

If the Bretton Woods system and the gold standard are too unfamiliar to us, then you might as well take a look at the description of the financial situation in the last two years in the mainland in history books:

The excessive issuance of gold yuan and silver yuan coupons has completely lost its credibility, and people only use gold in large-scale transactions. "Yellow Crocodile" was the nickname that people had for gold at that time.

In the 5,000-year history of human beings, gold plays this role most of the time. Most of the time, whether it is an individual, the ultimate form of their wealth is to have how much gold they have.

Have Bitcoin’s evolution and development achieved this effect? Or will we increasingly agree that when people lose confidence in fiat currency and the existing financial system, they will embrace Bitcoin and use the Bitcoin standard to measure their wealth?

We may say this on our lips, but what we say is often not as honest as if we are actually taking action.

If we have a Bitcoin in our hands, the market price of this Bitcoin was $100,000 yesterday, but today the market plummeted, with a market price of only $50,000. At this time, if we trust Bitcoin more or use the Bitcoin standard to measure our wealth, we should be calm and not care.

But I believe 95% of holders may beat their chests and stamp their feet and regret it, "It would be great if they sold yesterday."

This is actually trusting the US dollar more, and measuring your wealth using the US dollar standard.

We might as well use another historical scene to imagine what would happen if this scene happened to gold:

One day in 1948, in Shanghai, yesterday a yellow croaker could be exchanged for a 1 million gold coupon, but today a yellow croaker could only be exchanged for a 500,000 gold coupon. At this time, will the people of Shanghai try every means to change the gold coupons in their hands for yellow croakers, or will they regret it and say, "I wish I had sold the yellow croakers yesterday?"

I think the answer is self-evident. Who can still believe in the gold coupon?

This comparison makes me feel better able to see the difference between Bitcoin and gold.

In fact, in the early days of Bitcoin's birth, those idealistic geeks believed in Bitcoin more, and they were more willing to use the Bitcoin standard to measure their crypto assets. On the contrary, crypto assets have developed to the present. As more and more public and institutions enter this ecosystem, more and more holders believe in US dollar stablecoins and are more willing to use US dollar (stablecoins) to measure their crypto assets.

Of course, we often see some people claiming how much Bitcoin they hold, but in my opinion, this does not mean that they trust Bitcoin more or use Bitcoin to measure their assets, but that they believe more in the value of the US dollar after Bitcoin is converted into US dollars, and they care more about how much their Bitcoin is worth. Here, Bitcoin is a wealth target like real estate.

It took 5,000 years for gold to establish financial and monetary attributes in history and in people's hearts, but Bitcoin does not have such a history.

The lack of the torture and tempering of history, at least it is hard to say that Bitcoin is like gold now.

There is also a view that Bitcoin is a hedge to the real world.

But if we carefully review the discovery of Bitcoin when crises occurred in real life over the years, we will find that in the early years, some people used Bitcoin as a hedge. For example, when the financial crisis occurred in Cyprus, part of the funds poured into Bitcoin. But the more people lose confidence in the real world (such as the collapse of US stocks), more and more people and institutions seem to be buying more Bitcoins to hedge this risk, but instead exchange Bitcoin for stablecoins or simply exchange it for US dollars, avoiding the current risks first.

No matter how you look at such behavior, it doesn’t seem like a hedge against a real-world crisis.

So what are the attributes of Bitcoin?

I think it is more like a special collection in the digital age, a collection that is given special meaning.

It is not like gold, and it is also far-fetched to say that it is a "store of value".

Qi Baishi's paintings are also limited. They are very valuable and valuable, but we say they are collectibles, and we won't say they are "XX gold".It is not likely to say that it is a "store of value".

For those paintings, we know:

When the economy soars and the rich dare to spend big money, their prices will soar.

But when the economy sluggish and the rich start calculating, their prices will sluggish.

"Collected in prosperous times, gold in troubled times", those paintings are collections of prosperous times.

Bitcoin is similar in this regard:

When US stocks soar and institutions dare to spend a lot of money, the price of Bitcoin will soar.

When U.S. stocks are sluggish and institutions also start to calculate, the price of Bitcoin will sluggish.

Bitcoin's linkage effect with the US stock market (economy) is more like the linkage effect between collectibles and the economy.

So Bitcoin is more like a collectible to some extent, a collectible with value given to other meanings. Although it cannot be appreciated, its history, its special technology, and its historical background have given it the characteristics that other collectibles do not have.

If this is the case, then its future trend will either rely strongly on the performance of the US stock market (US economy) or strongly on the development of the crypto-economy; it is unlikely to play a role in hedging risks like gold.