4E: The Federal Reserve slashes interest rate cut expectations, causing global markets to collapse
Editor
2024-12-19 11:32 9,638
According to news on December 19, the Federal Reserve announced on Wednesday that it would cut interest rates by 25 basis points as scheduled, but it significantly raised its expectations for future policy interest rates and inflation expectations. It is expected to cut interest rates only twice next year by a total of 50 basis points, which is half of the previous expectation.
According to 4E monitoring, after the release of the Fed's dot plot + economic forecast summary, risk aversion increased sharply, and the three major U.S. stock indexes all fell. The S&P 500 Index closed down 2.95%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 2.58%, and has fallen for ten consecutive days, the longest consecutive losing streak since 1974. The Nasdaq Composite Index closed down 3.56%. Tesla fell more than 8%, leading the decline among technology giants. Crypto concept stocks generally fell, with MSTR closing down 9.52% and Coinbase closing down 10.2%.
The Federal Reserve led the U.S. stock market to collapse, and the crypto market experienced a major correction. BTC fell below US$100,000. Powell's statement that "the Federal Reserve is not allowed and has no intention of holding Bitcoin" intensified the market selling pressure. Bitcoin fell as much as 6.2% and was currently trading at US$99,235 at the time of writing. Ethereum once reached $3,542, a drop of 7.27%, and altcoins generally experienced double-digit declines. In the past 24 hours, the amount of cryptocurrency liquidation across the entire network reached 842 million U.S. dollars, and market panic deepened.
In terms of foreign exchange commodities, the Federal Reserve slashed expectations of interest rate cuts, and the U.S. dollar index rose more than 1% to a two-year high; gold prices fell more than 1% to a one-month low; the decline in U.S. crude oil inventories pushed U.S. oil higher, but the slowdown in interest rate cuts suppressed the outlook for oil demand , oil prices rose and fell back to gradually smooth out the gains.
The interest rate "dot plot" released by the Federal Reserve shows that it is expected to cut interest rates only twice more by 2025. Compared with the September dot plot prediction, the degree of hawkishness exceeds expectations, and the market performance is extremely fearful. Fed officials also expect two more rate cuts in 2026 and another in 2027.
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