Golden Finance reported, Federal Reserve FOMC statement and Powell press conference highlights: FOMC Statement: 1. Overview of the statement: By maintaining the benchmark interest rate at 4.25%-4.50% with a 11-1 vote ratio, Director Waller voted against it, and his tendency to continue to shrink the balance sheet at the current rate. The statement no longer calls the risk "roughly balanced" and mentions that uncertainty about the economic outlook has increased. 2. Interest rate outlook: The dot chart remains unchanged in the past three years, and will cut interest rates twice this year and next year, but the number of officials who support no interest rate cuts or fewer interest rates will increase in 2025. 3. Inflation prospects: Upgrade PCE inflation expectations this year and next year and core PCE inflation expectations this year. Inflation is still expected to meet standards in 2027, and most officials expect risks to rise. 4. Economic prospects: The GDP growth forecast for 2025-2027 was reduced across the board, and this year's forecast was significantly lowered from 2.1% to 1.7%. The unemployment rate this year has been slightly raised to 4.4%, and the remaining years remain unchanged. 5. Balance reduction policy: The balance sheet reduction pace will begin in April, reducing the scale of Treasury bonds from US$25 billion to US$5 billion, and MBS scale remains at US$35 billion. Powell press conference: 1. Interest rate outlook: The Fed does not need to rush to adjust its policy position, but needs to wait and see based on the data. Restrictive positions may be relaxed or maintained as needed. It is already at a stage where interest rates can be cut or the current clear austerity policy stance can be maintained. 2. Inflation prospects: Inflation is still slightly higher. Further progress in inflation this year may be delayed. The baseline forecast is that inflation will be temporary. 3. Economic Outlook: The U.S. economy is strong, and surveys show that economic uncertainty is intensifying. Recent signs indicate a slowdown in consumer spending. Signs of weakness in hard data will be closely watched. Forecasters have increased the likelihood of a recession to some extent, but are still not high. 4. Employment prospects: The labor market situation is stable and the overall labor market remains balanced. Both recruitment and layoffs are at low levels, and a significant increase in layoffs may quickly translate into unemployment. Layouts are important to the relevant personnel, but not significant at the national level. 5. Binding situation: Slowing down the shrinking table is a technical adjustment. Slowing the shrinking table means slower but lasts longer. There is currently no plan to slow down the reduction of MBS, and it tends to eliminate MBS in the table. 6. Tariff impact: There is uncertainty in the impact of tariffs, focusing on the net impact of policies, and short-term inflation expectations are rising. If commodity inflation data continues to be strong in the recent past, this will definitely be related to tariffs. Staff simulated and predicted that the United States will be fully retaliated for tariffs. 7. Market reaction: The US index fell by more than 40 points overall, US bonds fell by about 10BP in 2Y, gold rose to a new high of US$2,050, Bitcoin rose above US$85,000, US stocks rose sharply, and the Nasdaq rose by more than 2%. 8. Latest expectations: Interest rate futures show that traders believe that the probability of the Federal Reserve's return to interest rate cuts rose to 64% at its June meeting, and the cumulative interest rate cut for the whole year rose to 65 basis points, which is more decisive.The increase was about 10BP before the negotiations.