1. Current situation: The contradiction between the outbreak of BSC chain MEME projects and market differentiation

1. Short-term fanaticism of MEME projects

- The myth of the surge in TST and CaptainBNB: MEME tokens on the BSC chain continue to attract speculative funds. For example, the test token mentioned by CZ once soared to US$41 million due to community speculation, and CaptainBNB's market value rose by more than 13,000% in 6 hours after its launch. With the "zero value support + social media fission" model, this type of project has become the focus of retail investors' pursuit

- Dominates the speculative logic: market funds are diverted from mainstream tracks such as Bitcoin and Layer2 to MEME coins, reflecting investors' short-term game mentality in uncertain periods

2. Trump's expected gap

- Bubble and controversy of TRUMP coins: The TRUMP coins issued by the Trump family once had a market value of over US$12 billion, but were later questioned as a "disguised corruption tool". The "first lady coins" issued by his wife Melania further dispersed market funds, resulting in a sharp decline in price

- The loosening of regulation did not meet expectations: Although Trump promised to replace the SEC chairman and promote the strategic reserves of Bitcoin, the implementation was slow, and the market's optimism about "deregulation" gradually faded

2. The core contradictions behind the cold market

1. The short-term release of liquidity is imbalanced with the market structure

- Limitations of TGA liquidity injection: The US Treasury Department releases approximately US$150-250 billion in liquidity through TGA accounts, driving short-term rise in risky assets, but such operations are temporary and difficult to support a long-term bull market. The "precise re-allocation" of funds: Institutional funds are concentrated in Bitcoin ETFs (such as BlackRock IBIT), while the altcoin market lacks incremental funds. The MEME boom is more about the internal rotation of existing funds. 2. Macroeconomics and uncertainties

- The dual pressures of inflation and debt: Trump's trade protection Pushing up supply chain costs, core inflation may rebound to 2.8%-3%, forcing the Fed to maintain high interest rates and suppressRisk preference

- Intensified risk: Trump's family's issuance of MEME coins has caused compliance doubts. If the SEC intervenes in the investigation, it may trigger a panic selling in the market

3. The unsustainability of the MEME model

- Zero value support and high volatility: There are many MEME projects on the BSC chain without actual use cases, relying on community hype. Once the popularity fades (such as TST is denied by Binance), the price may plummet by more than 90%.

- Regulatory risks escalate: The US Congress has debated the legality of politicians' issuance of tokens. If legislation restricts it, the MEME track will face systemic risks. 3. Future forecasts: differentiation, reconstruction and long-term opportunities

1. Market differentiation intensifies

- Strengthening of Bitcoin's strategic position: Standard Chartered Bank and other institutions predict that Bitcoin may exceed $200,000 by the end of 2025 due to the inflow of US pension ETFs, becoming a core asset for anti-inflation

- MEME track reshuffle: Only a few projects (such as MEME coins that combine AI or practical scenarios) may survive, most will be zeroed due to liquidity exhaustion

2. Structural Opportunities driven by the development of structural opportunities

- Clearing of the regulatory framework: If Trump successfully promotes the legislation of the FIT21 Act, compliant exchanges and stablecoin issuers (such as Circle) will benefit, while gray projects face elimination

- Layer2 and DeFi recovery: With the upgrade and implementation of Ethereum Cancun, tokens such as ARB and OP may rebound due to technological upgrades and ecological expansion, with a target increase of 50%-100%.

3. Rebalancing of macro liquidity

- Federal Reserve Turn: If inflation falls below 2.5% in the second half of 2025, the rise in interest rate cut expectations may trigger a general rise in the crypto market, and Bitcoin is expected to impact US$250,000 (Nexo forecast)

- Inflow of funds in emerging markets: Under the US dollar strengthening cycle, Latin America,Southeast Asian investors may increase their holdings of cryptocurrencies to hedge the risk of depreciation of their currency, driving up demand for BTC, XRP, etc.

4. Investor strategy: Coexistence of defense and offense

1. Short-term defensive configuration

- Reduce leverage: It is recommended to control contract leverage to 3-5 times to avoid overnight holdings of MEME coins

- Increase holdings of stablecoins: Keep 20%-30% of the funds in USDC or DAI to prevent black swan events

2. Medium- and long-term offensive direction

2. Medium- and long-term offensive direction

left;">- Bitcoin fixed investment: build positions in batches in the range of US$78,000-82,000, with a long-term target of US$180,000-200,000

- Layer2 leader layout: If OP and ARB pull back to below US$0.4 and below US$1.0, they can gradually absorb funds, and the game ecology will explode in dividends

3. Beware of risk points

- Trump Variables: If he fails to cash in cryptocurrency friendly, the market may be corrected by 10%-15%.

- MEME project collapse: closely monitor trading volume and community activity, and set strict stop loss (such as price falls below 20%)

Conclusion

The crypto market in 2025 is in the struggle between "Trump Economics" and the MEME bubble. In the short term, the carnival in the BSC chain is difficult to cover up and the liquidity dilemma; in the long term, the scarcity and compliance process of Bitcoin are still the core main lines. Investors need to remain rational in fanaticism and capture reconstructive opportunities in differentiation