Some bond traders are betting the Fed will cut rates in 2025 more than the market expects
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2024-12-19 02:32 4,006
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Golden Finance reported that some bond traders have been increasing options and futures bets, anticipating that the Fed's hint of an interest rate cut next year will exceed market expectations. U.S. Treasuries rose modestly on Wednesday ahead of the Federal Reserve's policy decision. With the Fed's 25 basis point interest rate cut largely considered a certainty, the market's focus will be on the Fed's latest quarterly forecast. A dot plot released in September showed officials expected rate cuts of 100 basis points each this year and next. However, given the stickiness of inflation data, the overall market is betting that the Fed will lower its forecast for an interest rate cut next year, and the swap rate corresponds to the Fed only cutting interest rates by 50 basis points next year.