On March 17, QCP released a daily market observation that over the weekend, a BTC giant whale opened a $400 million short position in BTC, which triggered market volatility on Sunday, with some groups trying to push for the liquidation of this 40 times highly leveraged position, which only requires a 2.5% price change. Despite these efforts, the position has not been liquidated and has accumulated nearly $400,000 in funding fees. Currently, the cryptocurrency fear and greed index is 32 (fear), reflecting the ongoing risk aversion sentiment, especially in the context of a more pessimistic overall stock market sentiment. This further reinforces BTC’s role as a macro hedging tool. Despite the turbulent market sentiment, BTC still sticks above $80,000, showing resilience compared to U.S. stocks. In contrast, U.S. stock index futures opened lower this morning, affected by rising concerns about the recession. Earlier, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that the possibility of an economic recession cannot be ruled out, which is consistent with Trump's previous remarks. The market will focus on U.S. retail sales data released tonight to determine whether the 0.9% decline in retail sales in January is an initial sign of a slowdown in consumer spending or just a pullback after the 2024 holiday season. Due to the lack of strong narrative drive in the current crypto market, the market focus remains on the US stock market. Last week, U.S. CPI data was lower than expected, temporarily eased market tensions, but the Fed was unlikely to turn dovish in the near term. Expectations of interest rate cuts remain unclear as tariff risks and inflation concerns remain. Therefore, we expect the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged at this Wednesday’s FOMC meeting. However, as the market is looking for any clues about the direction of the Fed's future policy, especially under the uncertainty of Trump's policy changes, market volatility is expected to remain at a high level.