Recently, Huobi HTX theme column "Dialogue with HTX Fire Companion" invited the encrypted KOL Chen Jian, Jason, Zishi, and Huobi HTX Investment Research Group to take the theme of "In the disassembly of wealth code: Where is the signal of bull and bear reversal?", and conducted in-depth discussions from multiple dimensions such as market sentiment, capital flow, and macroeconomic environment, hoping to provide investors with a clearer basis for market judgment.

Current market sentiment: bull market or bear market?

Chen Jian Jason shared his views from the perspectives of capital inflows and investor sentiment. He believes that in addition to rising prices, the signal of a bull market also includes capital inflows and investors' willingness to pay money. When the market is full of faith in certain tracks or projects, investors are willing to continue to invest money and can remain enthusiastic even when prices fluctuate violently. However, when these "charming" things gradually become "disenchanting", investors lose the motivation to pay, and the market is naturally deserted.

He also pointed out that discussing whether bull and bear is not very meaningful, the key lies in whether you can make money and future profit expectations. At this stage, the number of stablecoins on the exchange continues to grow but the price has not risen, indicating that market sentiment is bearish; at the same time, the capital market has become tighter under the interest rate hike cycle, and there is a lack of new incremental funds. In addition to the interest rate cut, he cannot see any other direct positive news for the time being. Therefore, it tends to be a bear market state, but the specific stage varies from person to person.

Sub-time starts from more specific market events. It judged that the crypto market narrative failed based on events such as Trump's coin issuance and DeepSeek release, and the AI ​​and altcoin markets subsequently plummeted, further verifying its judgment. He believes that when the industry enters the stage of reflection, sentiment will inevitably turn to a bear market. Short-term indicators show that Bitcoin holders and new miners are beginning to lose money, which is in line with the characteristics of the bear market. However, now the bull and bear cycle is accelerating, with sharp rises and falls, Bitcoin monopolizing the market, and only some altcoins remain. The new currency boom is often short-lived, and liquidity is highly dependent on attention, and the market has evolved into a "attention market".

Huobi HTX Investment Research Group supplements from a data and a macro perspective, and believes that the core of this cycle is cryptographic legalization and dollarization. Bitcoin ETFs have absorbed a large amount of institutional funds and laid the foundation for the long-term legality of the industry. Despite Trump's uncertainty and increasing volatility in mainstream assets, indicators such as the rainbow chart have not yet reached the peak of the bull market. It emphasized that it may be a bear market in terms of emotions, but the industry still needs to look at it in the long run, and shortening of the cycle does not mean the end of development.

In addition, when asked whether there are any typical characteristics at the bottom of the marketWhen reflected, Chen Jian and Jason said that the real bottom is a long-term sideways state of "no one buys the bottom". Zishi believes that the real bottom signal should be observed for "smart money" trends - when the secondary market tycoons and institutional practitioners rest or leave the market, the market will gradually cool down until the valuation and trading volume are extremely pessimistic, which may heat up again.

What is the impact of the macroeconomic environment on the crypto market?

Zhongshi believes that Trump's uncontrollability is a key factor in the fact that the market is not completely in trouble in this round. He analyzed that Trump's often have a strong personal touch and is difficult to predict, which increases market uncertainty. The trend of US stocks is enough to prove market concerns.

Chen Jian Jason clearly pointed out that the current macroeconomic environment has a negative impact on the crypto market. "A gentleman does not stand under a dangerous wall." Capital is always averse to risks and pursues certain returns. When the macro environment is in a state of very uncertainty, capital's final choice is to avoid risks.

Huobi HTX Investment Research Group added that although Trump supports cryptocurrency, there are variables in its implementation. If implemented stably, market sentiment may recover quickly. However, the increasing voices of "blockchain is a scam" in the community also imply that the bottom signal is brewing.

In the current market environment: Actively layout or cautiously wait and see?

In the current fluctuation, Chen Jian and Jason are on the wait-and-see attitude towards how to find profitable trading strategies, believing that unless the Federal Reserve moves on March 19, it will be difficult to see good news in the short term.

Zhongshi shared his "hot money" strategy: the funds hold USDT in full positions and only take action during news trading or Meme hot spots. When there are no free chips in the market, you should believe that your judgment is different from that in the market.

Huobi HTX Investment Research Group proposed a dual-track idea: steady operators can choose exchange financial products, such as USDD to earn coins. In addition, you can pay attention to the launch of Huobi HTX new assets to explore high-quality projects in the bear market.