Author: DC is greater than C, source: author's Twitter @DL_W59

This article analyzes the trends and inspirations of BTC, ETH, SOL, and copycat seasons in the previous bull markets of 2021, 2023, and 2024. Comparative analysis of moving time and a summary of grasping the current and future bull market copycat prices. The full text is more than 3,000 words. Reading it requires a lot of patience, but you can scroll to the bottom to read the conclusion. I believe you will gain a lot after reading it all. Thank you everyone.

After going through bull and bear cycles, and witnessing the ups and downs of many tracks, the crypto market is like a changing stage, full of infinite possibilities. Here, knowledge is constantly iterating, and only through continuous learning can we keep up with the market pace and gain wealth within our cognitive scope. As the saying goes, "A day in the currency world is a year in the world." Such rapid changes are the unique charm of the crypto market. The opinions are for reference only. If there are any differences, please feel free to discuss and exchange them. Thank you (all K-line trends are in weekly units)

519 from the end of 2020 to the first half of 2021

As shown in the picture:

The first wave 2020.10.5 -2020.12.21 stage: BTC pulled sharply first, and ETH fluctuated and rose. At this stage, ETH is really weak from the K line;

The second wave 2020.12.28-2021.2.22 stage: BTC pulled back and fluctuated, ETH started to pull back sharply and fluctuated slightly;

The third wave, 2021.3.1-2021.5.19 stage: BTC fluctuated at a high level, and ETH started There was a sharp main rise until 519 came, and then all the way down and washed out;

BTC rose sharply in the early stage, and ETH rose sharply in the middle and later stages. Let’s take a look at the trend of each track in Shanzhai.

BNB, MX, HT and other platform currencies: started a major surge on February 1, 2021, and fluctuated in the early stage.

Meme track: Doge starts a large main rise at the end of the first wave and then the second wave. Since SHIB landed on Uniswap in August 2020, it has been shaken and shaken. In January 2021, it officially started the main wave rise until 519 comes;

Public chain track: referenced SOL, AVAX, CHR, ADA, DOT , ATOM, FTM, ENJ, VET, etc., all started the second wave of main rise on 2020.12.28. THETA, NEAR, and INJ started in the middle and late stages of the first wave;

Game and metaverse tracks: refer to AXS, MANA, SAND, etc., the first wave fluctuated and rose, and the second wave started to rise sharply;

DEFI: Reference UNI, SUSHI, MKR, 1 INCH, ALPHA, COMP, etc., all started in the second wave, and a few fluctuated and rose in the first wave;

Other tracks: For example, FIL, which was very popular at the time, and the old currency ETC only started in the third wave. The main rising wave;

Summary

In this wave of main rising wave market, BTC will rise first, even ifTime and time again, record highs were reached, and ETH continued to fluctuate and rise. It was not until the mid-to-late period that ETH really kept up with the rise, and then began to rise successively in various copycat tracks. The tracks listed here are not complete. After all, the main tracks have very good secondary gains and there are many opportunities to make money, especially MEME, L1, games, etc.

Note: Most of the projects here were listed on Binance in 2019-2020. For example, the Metaverse and games with crazy hype in 2020 have already been listed on Binance in 2020, which is enough to prove that Binance is Grasp the new market narrative and new track. As for the public chain, this is a popular narrative that has been hyped for a long time. Meme is the rise of Dex in 20 years. Coupled with Musk’s call for DOGE and SHIB, MEME has become increasingly popular.

The second main rising wave market in 2021: July 2021 to the end of 2021

As can be seen from the picture, the main rising wave from July to November 2021 In terms of market trends, BTC and ETH almost overlap and are rising together. As for the growth rate of the copycat mentioned earlier, if you look at the trend of each track of the copycat, friends who have experienced it should still remember it.

MEME track: Although DOGE did not increase significantly in the second half of the year, SHIB increased tenfold after 519, and many good projects emerged on the Meme track, such as BABYDOGE, FLOKI, etc.;< /p>

Public chain track: AVAX, SOL, CHR, ENJ, ADA, FTM, etc. will all pull in the second half of the year reached new heights;

Game and metaverse tracks: AXS, SAND, MANA, RACA, etc. have all reached new heights;

DEFI track: Basically in the second half of the year It’s dead, and there’s no new hype to pull it up;

Other tracks: such as FIL, old currency ETC, BCH, etc., there’s no new hype or pull. At this point, the entire year of 2021 is over;

Summary of bull market copycats in 2021:

Macroeconomic background: After the 2020 election, the entire 21 years will be a water release cycle. Because of the epidemic, this is the largest one by the Federal Reserve since 2008. Release water. Against this background of macro easing and crazy liquidity, BTC has increased nearly 7 times from US$10,000 in October 2020 to 69,000, and ETH has increased more than 14 times from US$340 in October to US$4,870.

As for copycats, it is true that copycats are generally rising. In the first half of 21, that is, before 519, they are indeed generally rising. However, in the second half of the year, many tracks are misfired and they directly begin to harvest market flows. Sex.

PS: It depends on how friends define the general rise of copycats in this bull market, 5-10 times and more than 10 times. In this way, the general increase rate is almost 70% or more. I'm sure many friends are saying that you can earn 10 times in a bull market? Less. OK, then by definition more than 30 times is considered a general increase in copycats, and we can clearly tell you that the general increase rate is up to 20%.

Only public chains, games,The Metaverse and Meme are areas of constant speculation. Then DEFI, in fact, there are many less popular tracks that I have not listed, such as music, fans, infrastructure, etc. They are basically at the top, or pretending to be dead.

Moreover, the hotly hyped track projects such as public chains, games, Metaverse, and Meme basically launched the second level in 2019-20, especially the projects that were launched on Binance in 2020, whether they are Direct listing or IEO. Therefore, is Binance’s track project on the second level that opens on 22-24 worthy of attention? Don’t worry, I will mention it later.

As for the second-level projects that were first launched in the bull market in 2021, regardless of whether they were large or small firms, how many of them are still alive today? Friends, do you still remember them? Those who remember may not have been trapped to death.

The third main rising wave market from October 2023 to March 2024

As shown in the picture: As can be seen from the picture, from October 2023 to March 2024 In the main rising market, BTC and ETH almost coincided and rose together. What about the cottage? After the bear market in 2022, new popular track projects have emerged, such as AI, ETH's L2, LI's modular blockchain, etc., while the popularity of the Metaverse has dissipated.

Let’s take a look at the status of the public chain, L2, AI, games, and Meme. If we want to talk about the rankings of track projects with high growth, public chain = Meme>AI>Game.

Needless to mention the old public chain: ETH, SOL, INJ, CKB;

New public chain: SEI, TIA, SUI, TAO, NTRN, 5-10 times;

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Meme: ORDI and SATS (BRC20 Meme), PEPE, WIF, BOME, BONK, F LOKI, 5-10 times and above;

AI: ARKM, WLD (related to AI, let’s put it into AI for now), 5-10 times;

Games: PIXEL, PORTAL, XAI, ACE, etc., 50%-2 times;

Other tracks such as DEFI and infrastructure: PENDEL and ID, 5-10 times;

ETH’s L2: ARB, OP, STRK, have increased but not much, METIS is not bad, 10 times;

Divide the above For other project tracks, the increase is not very large, and they are not hyped popular narrative tracks.

Summary

Macroeconomic background: Since the interest rate hike cycle in 2022, interest rate hikes have been suspended in September 2023, coupled with the speculation, approval and trading of BTC spot ETFs.

The water release mentioned before is to expand the balance sheet, but at this time point, the balance sheet is shrinking. The natural market liquidity is limited, and the limited funds are concentrated on the main tracks, which cannot be compared with 2021. Therefore, it is almost difficult for copycats to rise across the board. The enduring hype narrative is still the public chain and MEME. As for the game, I personally thinkThe main reason is that market liquidity is limited, and SOL’s pullback and the rise of Meme on SOL have taken away too much market liquidity.

Friends, you still remember what I said earlier, Binance’s track project on the second level of trading in 2022-2024 is worthy of attention. In addition to the husband chain mentioned above, the projects in other tracks are basically listed on the major exchanges in 2022-2023. Therefore, we must grasp this trading experience and see whether it will continue to be fulfilled later.

The market situation from October 2024 to the present (the sharing of the current market situation is also a personal summary of the general background, from BTC, ETH, SOL to copycats)

I will not let go of the trends of BTC and ETH. The picture is shown, and the friends also know the increase of various track projects in Shanzhai.

The only one that has taken off and risen sharply in the market is MEME. Even in L1, that is, SOL, SUI, and the hubby chain are pulling well, and the others are pretending to be dead. The good thing is today. Now, when I post, ETH seems to be starting to gain strength.

Summary

Macroeconomic background: This cycle of interest rate cuts will begin in September 2024, and with Trump, the new U.S. president who is friendly to encryption, the balance sheet reduction in Q1 next year may be nearing completion, plus spot ETFs. Although it has not been released yet, it has finally moved from tightening to loosening. The new four years are worth looking forward to.

The first wave is from now to Q1 next year, and then we will see if there will be a U.S. economic recession or other black swans. If there is, it will be another 312, and then it will be similar in 20-21 years. Details will be shared when the situation becomes clear.

If there was no recession in the US economy and a soft landing, then there would be no 312, and the music and dancing would continue.

BTC, SOL, BNB, including the new public chain SUI, have risen, driving the increase in the MEME track. There is not much movement in other tracks. As we analyzed earlier, ETH is needed. By coincidence, ETH is currently gaining momentum and seems to be starting a second wave. (As of the publication of this article, the market reaction is, as I said before, L1 is also breaking out. This is an enduring hype narrative)

Since ETH has started its second wave of rise, given the general background, copycats The probability of a general rise in the entire track is very high, but if you want to do well in a specific track, it is worth choosing: new and old public chains, MEME, L2 on ETH, and AI-related projects (such as AI+MEME). As for games, it’s not that I won’t choose them, but maybe a little further down the list.

What is being hyped in the crypto market will often be reflected in the specific currency in the end. So how to find and judge the track for the next hype in the crypto market? Look at the Binance online project and the US macro. Something reported by major American media outlets.

From 2022 to now, the track projects with the most launches on Binance are public chain, Meme, L2, games, AI, DEFI (I don’t want to write about this track, what the hell, if you want to get rich, Meme, Public chains are not fun enough), RWA and DEPIN(There are signs), in other tracks, in fact, the same sentence is still true, if you want to get rich, Meme, L1, games, and AI are not enough for you to seize the opportunity.

In terms of grasping the new market narrative and new track, Binance is the industry leader, and coupled with Binance’s liquidity, this cannot be questioned.

What is more important is the information from the United States. If nothing else, the increases in DOGE and PNUT speak for themselves. So you must pay attention. As for SOL, don’t forget that this is a project made by American capital investment and market makers. In fact, SUI, APT, OMNI, ALT, etc. are all.

Choosing the right time and currency has been noted. It is not difficult to get on the bus, but as for getting off, any project must be combined with the market background, the track it belongs to, and the exchanges it is listed on (Binance, Coinbase, Upbit, OKX), the affiliated market maker (the nature of the market maker), the ceiling of the same track, the narrative prospects of the track, etc. to calculate the possible valuation. There is no project that can keep pulling the market, it will always have to be washed, even for BTC. The market is anti-human. Only the emotional FOMO is not good, very bad.

Thanks, DYOR.

Written at the end

The above non-investment suggestions are based on the experience of previous bull markets, as well as grasping the changes in the market, continuing to learn, and improving the understanding of the market, so that we can keep up with the market rhythm and gain wealth within the scope of our knowledge. . Market liquidity, changes in market makers, changes in project narratives, especially market hype expectations, etc., require continuous learning and improvement. This market is changing too fast.

Friends need to improve their understanding of the market and choose to grasp it. Luck can only win for a while, and strength can last. Wealth is a reward for cognition.

I hope we can all have a stable grasp of this round, thank you all.