Author: Vince Quill, CoinTelegraph; Compiled by: White Water, Golden Finance
The latest U.S. core consumer price index (CPI) (a measure of inflation) is lower than expected at 3.1%, exceeding the expected 3.2%, while the overall inflation data falls by 0.1% accordingly.
21Shares cryptocurrency research strategist Matt Mena said the cooling of inflation data has increased the likelihood of the Fed's rate cut this year, injecting much-needed liquidity into the market and pushing up the prices of risky assets. Mena added:
"Expectations of interest rate cuts soared with it—the market now expects a 31.4% chance of a rate cut in May, more than three times higher than last month, while expectations of three rate cuts by the end of the year have jumped by five times to 32.5%, with the likelihood of four rate cuts soaring from just 1% to 21%."
While inflation data is better than expected, Bitcoin’s price has dropped from more than $84,000 at the daily opening to around $83,000 as traders struggle to cope with traders’ trade war and macroeconomic uncertainty over U.S. President Donald Trump.
Most market participants believe the Fed will cut interest rates by June 2025. Source: CME
Will President Trump force interest rate cuts by destroying the market?Federal Chairman Jerome Powell has repeatedly stated that the central bank is not in a hurry to cut interest rates - Fed Director Christopher Waller also holds the same view.
Waller said in a speech at the University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia on February 17 that the central bank should suspend interest rate cuts until inflation drops.
These remarks have raised concerns among market analysts, who said that not reducing interest rates could trigger a bear market and lead to a plunge in asset prices.
On March 10, market analyst and investor Anthony Pompliano speculated that President Trump deliberately collapsed financial markets in order to force the Fed to lower interest rates.
The United States has approximately $9.2 trillion in debt that will expire in 2025 without refinancing. Source: Kobeissi Letter
According to Kobeissi's letter, the United States needs to refinance it about $9.2 trillion before its debt maturity in 2025.
Unable to refinance these debts at lower interest rates will push up debts currently exceeding $36 trillion and lead to a surge in debt interest expenditures.
For these reasons, President Trump will cut interest rates as hisFirst priority – even if asset markets and businesses will suffer from this in the short term.