The global financial markets are played with by one person in the midst of applause.

As the global tariff war started by Trump intensifies, market expectations for a U.S. economic recession are also increasing. On March 10, local time, the US stock market suffered a Black Monday, and the three major U.S. stock indexes collectively fell. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 2.08%, closing down nearly 900 points; the Nasdaq fell 4%, and the S&P 500 fell 2.7%.

The lips were lost and the teeth were cold, and the crypto market was not spared. Bitcoin fell below 77,000, hitting US$76,560, a single-day decline of more than 8%. ETH performed poorly, falling below US$1,800 in a short period of time, and the lowest reached around US$1,760. It was only based on price, and returned to the level 4 years ago.

However, as time comes, the market seems to have begun to recover, Bitcoin recovered to $82,000, repairing its decline, and ETH also rose by more than $1,900.

The external environment is in a turbulent manner. The market is full of doubts whether this wave of growth will rebound or reversal signal.

Success and failure are both Trump. It is not only effective in the crypto market, but also has the same value in the global financial market. To talk about this round of decline in the crypto market, we must also start with Trump.

I vaguely remember that in the months before the election, global financial markets were actively responding to the main trading line of "Trump". Investors were betting on Trump's relaxation of regulation, tax cuts, immigration, etc. US stocks, the US dollar and Bitcoin soared across the board, and the yield on the 10-year US Treasury rose by 60 basis points at one point. Small-cap stocks responded significantly. On the second day after the election, the Russell 2000, which represents small-cap stocks in the United States, rose 5.8%, the largest single-day increase in the past three years. From Election Day to Trump's inauguration, the U.S. dollar index rose roughly 6%, while the S&P 500 rose 2.5% in the first month of Trump's takeover, while the Nasdaq, which is dominated by technology stocks, rose 2.2%.

It can be seen that the market has strong optimism about Trump's inauguration, but it turns out that Trump has brought more than a big rise to the financial market, but also a signal of an economic recession.

From the United States, the indicator situation is complicated. In February, the number of non-farm employment increased by 151,000, slightly lower than market expectations; the unemployment rate was 4.1%, the previous value is 4%. Unemployment is still controllable and even good theory can be used, but in contrast, inflation remains high. The expected final value of the US one-year inflation rate in February was 4.3%, a record high since November 2023. From consumer market observation, the February consumer expectations survey data released by the New York Federal Reserve Bank showed that consumers' expectations for inflation increased by 0.1 percentage point a year later to 3.1%; the proportion of household financial situation deteriorating in the next year is expected to rise to 27.4%, the highest level since November 2023.

Under this background, many institutions have begun to give expectations for a recession in the United States. The latest forecast released by the Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank on the 6th showed that the United States' GDP is expected to shrink by 2.4% in the first quarter of this year. JPMorgan Chase’s forecast model shows that as of the 4th, the probability of an economic recession in the United States has risen to 31% from 17% at the end of November last year.

The reason for this series of data has a lot to do with Trump's claim, after all, the president's recent method of making money is simple and too rough - tariffs. As early as February 1, Trump signed an executive order to impose 10% tariffs on US goods and 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada, indicating the beginning of the tariff war. But with the surrender of Mexico and Canada, Trump waved his hand and said that he would postpone it for a month. Just when the world believes that there is room for negotiation for tariffs, on February 27 local time, Trump announced on social media that the decision to impose a 25% tariff on Canadian and Mexican products will take effect as scheduled on March 4, and an additional 10% tariff will be added.

This time, in addition to being disgusted, Canada and Mexico were also completely annoyed. On February 27, the Canadian Prime Minister responded strongly that he would impose retaliatory tariffs on the United States. Mexican President Sinbaum also stated that Mexico needs to take countermeasures. On March 6, Trump, who was watching the game, signed an executive order to adjust the imposition of tariffs on both countries, and exempted tariffs on imported goods that meet the preferential conditions of the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement. And just yesterday, the absurd White House shouts sounded again. Trump announced that he would impose an additional tariff on Canadian steel and aluminum, and then he made a statement that there would be no extra extra. What is really about putting negotiations on the table.

In fact, Trump's appointment is not a good time. At least for the president, what his ex-Biden left behind is indeed a big mess. In addition to the historical burden accumulated over the years, the $36 trillion government bond, the high federal budget deficit of 1.8 trillion, there are 42,000 federal employees working from home, large-scale illegal immigrants, unsustainable judicial reforms, and the continued expansion of external sanctions against Russia.

Faced with the mess, Trump had to make drastic reforms, and increasing revenue and reducing expenditure became the key. First, let his confidant Musk blush and cut internal expenses by vigorously reducing internal expenses; second, raise tariffs to generate income and reform; third, we cannot let "poor relatives" lie on their bodies to suck blood. This also points to the armistice between Russia and Ukraine and the increase in EU military expenditure.

In the long run, a series of combined punches have predictable results. Simplifying institutions can reduce expenditures, governing the border can broaden the borders of homeland security, and imposing tariffs can reduce the trade deficit to return to the United States. However, reforms often mean bleeding, and the existence of the pain period is inevitable. The pain has just begun, and the market can't stand it.

As asked on March 10, when he expected a recession in the United States this year, Trump said he was "not willing to predict such a thing." Trump said the United States was "bringing wealth back to the United States", but "it took a little time." In a short sentence, it quickly collapsed the financial market. The three major U.S. stock indexes fell across the board, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling 890.01 points, or 2.08% from the previous trading day; the S&P 500 stock index fell 155.64 points, or 2.70%; the Nasdaq Composite Index fell 727.90 points, or 4.00%. Fanng fell 4% sharply, and Tesla's stock price fell more than 15%.

The crypto market also ushered in a sharp drop, with Bitcoin falling 8%, hitting 76,000, ETH falling below the $2,200 that was jokingly claimed to have maintained for four years, and returned to 1,800. The counterfeit market plummeted, and the total market value of the crypto market fell below $2.66 trillion. Wall Street institutions started an emergency shelter mode. On March 10, the total net outflow of Bitcoin spot ETF was US$369 million, which has been net outflow for six days; the total net outflow of Ethereum spot ETF was US$37.527 million, which has lasted for four days.

But the good news is that all currencies are gradually recovering, and the total market value of cryptocurrencies has rebounded slightly to US$2.77 trillion, with a 24-hour increase 2.5%, Bitcoin also returned to above $83,000. The problem arises from this. Is this recovery a short-term rebound or the eve of the reversal?

It is enough to see that the price trend of Bitcoin and even the crypto market are closely related to the US economic indicators, and the current market is actually quite similar to the US state, and is at the junction of bull and bear. On the one hand, the United States has a stable private sector balance sheet, the leverage ratio of the US department is at a historically low level, and the unemployment rate is still good; but on the other hand, the CPI remains high, and the costs of food, housing and other goods have become the largest in the United States.Important economic issues, the recent surge in egg prices threatens the whole country of the United States; the momentum of US economic growth is also insufficient, AI is repricing, and the craze of the seven sisters in the U.S. stock market continues to fade. The same is true for the crypto market. On the one hand, the price of Bitcoin exceeds 80,000 US dollars and the strategic reserves of Bitcoin, coupled with the expected regulatory loosening, are difficult to think that this is a bear market. But on the other hand, the market growth momentum and liquidity decline are real, and the counterfeit market is wailing.

So it depends on the price, or return to the United States and Trump. There is a voice in the market that Trump is artificially creating a recession because he forces the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates to achieve the goal of reducing interest payment costs. This statement also has a conspiracy theory, after all, as president, he must have more disgust than love for the economic recession. But it has to be admitted that the current recession warning still raises expectations of interest rate cuts, and most markets believe that interest rate cuts will be ushered in June. If interest rate cuts successfully and moves towards quantitative easing, combined with relatively strong asset-liability fundamentals, the United States will usher in a reshaping of the prosperity cycle after the collapse of rituals and music. Of course, the possibility of recession is not ruled out.

In the short term, the tariff stick and economic uncertainty will still increase. Before the macro market improves, it will be difficult for the crypto market to usher in a real so-called reversal. Judging from the current situation, although positive news comes frequently, it is difficult for Trump to speak out, and the market's self-producing ability is weak and requires the injection of external liquidity rather than any verbal positive news.

In the non-recession situation, the biggest possible decline of Bitcoin is to return to before Trump took office, that is, the entry price of most institutions was around $70,000, but in the recession situation, there is a possibility of a sharp decline in the price. If we look at the S&P 500, when there is a recession, the S&P 500 falls between 20% and 50%, Bitcoin may also usher in an extreme decline. Of course, for now, there is no need to panic. The area with a intensive chip in the BTC market has not yet been destroyed, and it is still between 90,000 and 95,000 US dollars, indicating that regional investors have not changed hands frequently.

According to the current situation, since neither the White House crypto summit nor the Bitcoin strategic reserves have ignited market sentiment, the possibility of major positive events in the next three months has been significantly reduced. Unless the macro environment gradually improves, the market will lack growth momentum. Considering Bitcoin’s safe-haven properties, Bitcoin may move from a small level to a large-scale volatile growth market with an annual cycle. But the altcoin market is likely to be not easy. Except for the leading currency and the phased narrative of manufacturing in the United States, other currencies are difficult to say.

Of course, in the long run, most industry insiders are still optimistic about the market. For example, Arthur Hayes, although he has been saying that Bitcoin may fall to $70,000, it has always insisted that Bitcoin will reach $1 million in the long term. Messari researcher mikeykremer also posted that Bitcoin may eventually reach $1 million, but before that, a severe bear market needs to be faced with. The buying data is also quite optimistic, CryptoQuant analyst Cauê Oliveira revealed that the whales have accumulated more than 65,000 BTC in the past 30 days. LMAX Digital's Joel Kruger is more optimistic, saying that Bitcoin is approaching bottoming out and is expected to rebound in the second quarter.

But no matter what, under the market dominated by the external economic situation, tariffs, inflation and geopolitical factors will all affect the crypto market. For investors, in addition to waiting, they may still wait.